The Bagel23/X Marks the Spot Cellar of Exquisitely Aged Content

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

On Tennessee:

LOL. RIP IceSpear. If two polls show this race tied, it isn't really "Safe R" anymore, huh?

On Nevada:

Anyway, Heller won't win by 7, but this is a tossup that both sides have a decent chance of winning. LOL at IceSpear though.

On IA-04:

Steve King only up one point.

I want to believe!

IceSpear and Mizzoulian told me that all Republicans in IA-04 are evil, racist Steve King-loving deplorables, though!

On Tennessee/Florida:

But IceSpear told me Scott and Bredesen couldn't win at the same time!

On Alaska:

But IceSpear told me this race was Safe R!

On Oklahoma:

Kevin Stitt Drew Edmondson has won the race to be the next governor of Oklahoma. Of course, he'll need to dispense with the token opposition first.

On WI-01, from Politician (thread is locked):

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Basically everything I predicted was spot on, LMAO. Very bad night for my friend Politician. Maybe it wasn't the brightest idea to mock all my predictions?

Senator Patrick Morrisey would like a word.  Also Steve King only won by 3%, clearly a lot of Republicans voted against him.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Senator Patrick Morrisey would like a word.  Also Steve King only won by 3%, clearly a lot of Republicans voted against him.

I never said Morrisey would 100% win though. In fact I rated it as a toss up and said right before the election I was struggling whether to predict a Manchin plurality or a Morrisey plurality (to which Atlas laughed at me and called me a troll because clearly I was delusional and this was a safe D race that Manchin would easily win by double digits.)

Unless you meant my posts from a year ago before Doug Jones won when I called it safe R and said Manchin was DOA. I'll give you that one.

Don't get me wrong, I thought we were looking at +50 in the House, so my predictions weren't exactly perfect

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If this seat flips I will change my sig to Ocasio for a week. You people are too overconfident and hopefully our party leadership is not like that too (thank gravy I don't think they are) otherwise we would be screwed. This seat is not flipping with a decent incumbent who has done very well in the district, against a meh candidate. Not even Northam won it in an open race where he destroyed Gillespie statewide.

Brat is not a decent incumbent nor is Abigail “meh”.  Also Kaine is going to beat Corey by way more than Northam beated Ed

Well duh, everyone knows that, Kaine will win by something like 56-41.

Have you seen how well Brat has done in VA 7th?

So if Kaine is going to outperform Northam by a lot and Ralph lost this district by 4 then logically.......

Yes, Kaine will win the district.

An that doesn’t help Abigail at all?

43 year old white Chesterfield County businessmen will vote for both Kaine and Brat because they are both good government moderates.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Coattails from Trump and the Senate nominee, should be enough to drag down both Slotkin and Stevens, I say we need a C-lister in MI-08 and a B-lister in MI-11

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Coattails from Trump and the Senate nominee, should be enough to drag down both Slotkin and Stevens, I say we need a C-lister in MI-08 and a B-lister in MI-11

That post was when it was assumed that the natural environment will be neutral (i.e. pre-COVID)

And it was wrong then too

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

An oldie but a goodie:

The political sun has set for Perdue

TBF I was in middle school at the time

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

An oldie but a goodie:

The political sun has set for Perdue

TBF I was in middle school at the time

My favorite part is how you felt the need to clarify that you did not mean the literal sun was setting on him.

I doubt I gave it that much thought tbh.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Congresswoman Turner would be awesome.

She's probably looking at a 4th or 5th place finish, maybe a distant 3rd at best.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If she drops out the Democrats need to force everyone out and endorse Warnock.

No, they need to force Warnock to drop out and endorse Lieberman (i.e. the strongest - or rather, least weak - Democrat running).  Of course, they should be spending on the regular Georgia Senate race since unlike Warnock or Lieberman, Osoff actually has a chance of winning even if it's a long shot and the money would be much better spent on Maine, North Carolina, Montana, and (if Kobach is the Republican nominee) Kansas.

The DV allegation against Warnock hadn’t been discredited yet iirc and was running a piss poor campaign at the time.  Plus, Lieberman hadn’t imploded.  This was a perfectly reasonable post at the time.  In fact, it was basically the widely held CW.  Warnock was polling in fourth with about 5-7%.  Lieberman was consistently polling about 15%

Anyway, if we’re trolling through that thread:

Ossoff and Warnock are the best choices in their respective primaries and it's not even close. They balance one another out very well.

Outside of their races obviously being different, I don't see this. Both are male candidates based in the Atlanta metro who don't bring actual governing experience to the ticket.

I've made it clear on this forum I think Tomlinson is far and away the better candidate for the regularly scheduled race. It's not because I trivially or superficially like her more.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Me thirty minutes before the NY State Senate passed the map in question:

Wild how people think a map that’s likely DOA in the State Senate is gonna pass