The Bagel23/X Marks the Spot Cellar of Exquisitely Aged Content

[ON Progressive]

In the “what race do we have all wrong” thread, I said Nevada.

In the thread about the wave turning into a ripple I was called a joke for calling this Lean R.

I’ll say it again. Nevada is going to the Republicans.

This thread will be filled with posts about NV-Sen sooner rather than later lmao.

[ON Progressive]

Won't even have to wait for Election Day on these NM-Gov takes:

The polling for this race has continually showed this race as closer than it should be. I blame this on Lujan-Grisham being a blank slate who stands for nothing.

This’ll be way closer than it should be, and in a neutral environment Pearce would win. Won’t be a neutral environment though. Ds should take this.

Frankly, far closer than I would expect. This will be a close race.

Pearce is really popular, and Grisham is the definition of unknown meh generic dem candidate #349,820. Still, go Grisham!

[ON Progressive]

Yeah Democrats aren't going to beat McSally - They probably weren't going to do it with Heinz, either.

[ON Progressive]

I'm not even going to check if this has been posted here, but this is too good for me to even care:

This CNN article is reason for optimism...

The basic premise is that with Costello's retirement, there are now eight GOP-Clinton seats that are open. The Democrats are very likely to win all of them meaning they are probably already 35% of the way towards retaking the house.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/27/politics/enten-costello-open-seats/index.html

And then there’s Comstock-style seats that I would feel very bullish about

Comstock style maybe but comstock herself is tough as nails and used to lead opposition research for the RNC. She will be brutal to a serious challenger.

[ON Progressive]

At this point, UncleSam should delete his account. How can you be so consistently wrong every time you make a prediction?

I’m surprised by Calley’s performance here, stronger than I expected. It’s gettin very close to the primary to be down 15 though.

I’m doubly surprised at how terrible a campaign Whitmer has run. She’s a totally uninspiring figure and public speaker from what I hear (this is completely anecdotal and may or may not reflect reality though - I’ve never personally heard her speak or campaign). I honestly am starting to doubt that she would even be the strongest candidate - idk if having two white liberal women who appeal to exactly the same constituencies in Ann Arvor and Oakland is a great idea. With Schuette likely to do well out state and John James proving surprisingly enigmatic, there has to be concerns about turning out Detroit in both the Governor and even the Senate race at this point.

It would be better if Dems had a strong minority candidate for governor to balance Stabenaw’s suburban Detroit appeal. Idk if Thanedar is really the best candidate to do that though - why do people here not like him? Is he too far left, or does he have serious controversies I’m not aware of?

Honestly think Michigan Governor is tilt R right now, with this uncertainty in the Dem primary. Could easily end up strong the other way of course, but the lack of enthusiasm for any of the candidates is pretty startling (and that even includes Stabenaw in the senate race tbh, though I expect her to outperform the gubernatorial candidate by at least 5 due to a stronger performance in the UP and Grand Rapids - I just don’t think she’s in a position to drag a weak governor candidate across the finish line).