The Bagel23/X Marks the Spot Cellar of Exquisitely Aged Content

[GeorgiaModerate]

Voted Bera, but I think Cartwright's race is currently Tossup/Tilt R and FL-07 is a Tossup as well.

I’d just love to see everyone’s reaction when Limo ends up being mostly right with his predictions

Peterson will lose

Quoting those guys in this thread is like shooting fish in a barrel.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not from one of our posters, but still worth noting:

https://twitter.com/meridithmcgraw/status/1059961858860421120

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not from one of our posters, but still worth noting:

https://twitter.com/meridithmcgraw/status/1059961858860421120

what is he supposed to say?
We are all doomed?

I know, but it's still amusing now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I’ll present some bold predictions:
1) The Mueller probe will conclude with no more indictments and no evidence of collusion before the Midterm elections.
2) The Dow Jones Industrial Average will reach 30,000 by the Midterm elections.
3) Trumps approval rating will reach 50% by the Midterm elections.
4) The Republicans will hold the house and gain several senate seats in the Midterm elections.

[GeorgiaModerate]

At 30 years old he'd been briefly an overhyped "rising star", and now if mentioned at all he's mostly mentioned in "lol, Ossoffed" context.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm not surprised. I was expecting Brown-Jackson to be nominated from the beginning. And like I said at the beginning of this process, I expect for her to be confirmed on a mostly party-line vote, with only a few crossover Republican votes.

Still think it'll be 48-50 against (Manchin and Simena abstain or find an excuse not to be in Washington during Brown-Jackson's confirmation vote).

And...

I'm not surprised. I was expecting Brown-Jackson to be nominated from the beginning. And like I said at the beginning of this process, I expect for her to be confirmed on a mostly party-line vote, with only a few crossover Republican votes.

Still think it'll be 48-50 against (Manchin and Simena abstain or find an excuse not to be in Washington during Brown-Jackson's confirmation vote).

Why would Manchin and Sinema do this? I still don't understand it, and it would be a humiliation for Biden if that was the outcome.

Because they have decided that humiliating Biden is in their political interests and it’s been their only coherent goal for the past year and change.

I don’t know why this is so hard for people to get.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Let's also not overlook that despite the R-favorable environment this year, Mastriano is a clear underdog to Shapiro in November.

This is an open race in a state that votes to the right of the nation in a Biden midterm where inflation is at a 40-year high, gas prices are at record highs, and the president has a 40% approval rating. This statement is absolutely ridiculous. Of course Mastriano is not the underdog.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Going to be fun looking back at this thread after Oz wins and all the Democrats mocking him in this thread have to eat their words.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Who makes the top four?

My guess is Tshhibaka, Murkowski, and Chesbro at least. No idea who gets the fourth spot.

I'm going to make a possibly insane prediction, and say Murkowski doesn't even make the top four.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump wins all of his 2016 states -> AZ/TX/GA *might* be at lower margins but decent chance of it being even higher margins than 2016's, all other states likely to be won at higher margins than 2016's. New Hampshire won with a majority, Minnesota won with a plurality (but possibly a majority as well). Same with Maine-At-Large. Colorado and Virginia will be around as close as Minnesota was in 2016. New Mexico will be as close as Colorado was in 2016.

Trump's margins in New York, California, and most "Safe Blue" AND "Safe Red" states higher than it was in 2016. He'll get past 40% in New York, and be near Romney's 37% performance in California. He gets around 51% of he 'national popular vote,' maybe even higher.

House gets flipped back at around 218R-225R. John James defeats Gary Peters, GOP Candidate landslides Doug Jones, McSally survives, Collins survives, Gardner has a decent chance of surviving, Shaheen has a decent chance of losing to Lewandowski or Bolduc or whoever, Smith has a decent chance of losing to Lewis. Possibility of getting up to a 57R Senate.

GOP flips governorships in Montana and North Carolina.