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  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginia)
  North Carolina GOP (The Gift That Keeps On Giving): NCGOP Chair Indicted
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Author Topic: North Carolina GOP (The Gift That Keeps On Giving): NCGOP Chair Indicted  (Read 20557 times)
Nyvin
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« Reply #275 on: September 17, 2019, 02:50:19 pm »
« edited: September 17, 2019, 04:45:28 pm by Nyvin »

Given the restraints put in place by the court,  the only areas on the Senate Map I can see where there's potential for improvement for the Democrats would be Forsythe and Wake,  along with keeping as much of High Point in SD-27 as possible.  

That basically gives Democrats 24 "winnable" seats:

5 in Wake
5 in Mecklenburg
2 in Durham
2 in Guilford
2 in Forsythe/Davie
2 in Cumberland
2 in rural northeast
1 in Orange/Chatham
1 in Pitt
1 in Buncombe
1 in New Hanover

I don't see anywhere on the map they can get the last 1 or 2 seats (depending if they get Lt Gov) with the redrawing given what the court order says.

With the current map I'd see them having probably 23 seats - all the ones they currently do now plus SD-39 and SD-18.   The only one really out of reach is the Forsythe/Davie one (SD-31 I think, it's tough but not impossible).    

The dem margins in the Wake County districts and SD-27 could be improved to not be so close though.

Edit - Part of the court order is that the new districts "Improve compactness" which the new SD-31 in Forsyth/Davie certainly doesn't do at all.   I won't be surprised to see the court strike that particular district down and draw a new one that's easily more compact (and more competitive).   That would make for 24 seats the Democrats can win next year.
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morgieb
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« Reply #276 on: September 17, 2019, 06:33:19 pm »
« Edited: September 17, 2019, 06:43:04 pm by morgieb »

Elected Black Democrats tend to be selfish pricks, somehow this doesn't surprise.

EDIT: Now reading that it sounds really close to calling them the n-word.....my point is that the CBC seem to only care for themselves rather than the good of the party (and accordingly I suspect most of the people that voted for the gerrymander were AA Democrats)
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Virginia
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« Reply #277 on: September 18, 2019, 08:21:13 am »

https://electionlawblog.org/?p=107358

Quote
Earlier today, the North Carolina legislature approved remedial maps to replace the state house and state senate plans that were recently struck down as partisan gerrymanders. PlanScore assessed the remedial maps, and here are the results. For the state house, the old plan had an efficiency gap of 9%, a partisan bias of 7%, and a mean-median difference of 5% (all in a Republican direction, and based on a model using 2016 data). On the other hand, the new map has an efficiency gap of 5%, a partisan bias of 3%, and a mean-median difference of 3% (again all pro-Republican). So the new map is about half as skewed as the old plan.



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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #278 on: September 27, 2019, 08:24:19 pm »

Former NC GOP Chairman to plead guilty to lying to FBI
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Virginia
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« Reply #279 on: September 28, 2019, 10:01:04 pm »

ftr, a lawsuit was filed against the NC Congressional map:



I still can't help but feel like this was done in response to impeachment, given that it would help offset any potential losses in bigly Trump districts. The only other explanation is they just dragged their asses for months up to the point where it might not even be possible to redraw the map (after a trial/appeal) in time.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #280 on: October 28, 2019, 04:27:05 pm »



Courts making moves.
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gracile
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« Reply #281 on: October 28, 2019, 05:30:54 pm »

It appears that the Court has accepted the remedial map for state legislative districts drawn by the NC General Assembly, instead of opting to re-do it themselves:



The maps are only slightly less gerrymandered, and the Republicans would still likely maintain control of both chambers after the 2020 election if put in place.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #282 on: October 28, 2019, 05:37:01 pm »

It appears that the Court has accepted the remedial map for state legislative districts drawn by the NC General Assembly, instead of opting to re-do it themselves:



The maps are only slightly less gerrymandered, and the Republicans would still likely maintain control of both chambers after the 2020 election.

The maps drawn last month more or less locked in the 2018 result - slim R majority but no chance at supermajority, even with the few dem gains guaranteed by the new lines. Slim chance of state senate flipping but don't bet on it. Doesn't really matter long term since Cooper looks the  be remaining at the helm right now, the lines are only for 2020, and the court has been moving to take de facto redistricting powers from the de jure legislature.
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Badger
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« Reply #283 on: October 29, 2019, 10:30:39 pm »

It appears that the Court has accepted the remedial map for state legislative districts drawn by the NC General Assembly, instead of opting to re-do it themselves:



The maps are only slightly less gerrymandered, and the Republicans would still likely maintain control of both chambers after the 2020 election.

The maps drawn last month more or less locked in the 2018 result - slim R majority but no chance at supermajority, even with the few dem gains guaranteed by the new lines. Slim chance of state senate flipping but don't bet on it. Doesn't really matter long term since Cooper looks the  be remaining at the helm right now, the lines are only for 2020, and the court has been moving to take de facto redistricting powers from the de jure legislature.

And damn the utterly coward Democratic legislators who accepted this Republican gerrymander Lite merely because it was also drawn to offer them incumbent protection
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