North Carolina GOP (The Gift That Keeps On Giving): NCGOP Chair Indicted (user search)
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  North Carolina GOP (The Gift That Keeps On Giving): NCGOP Chair Indicted (search mode)
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Author Topic: North Carolina GOP (The Gift That Keeps On Giving): NCGOP Chair Indicted  (Read 30681 times)
jimrtex
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Posts: 11,828
Marshall Islands


« on: September 03, 2019, 11:03:18 PM »

Its here! So what will the dem court do now is the question. Perhaps they draw a bunch of competitive seats. Perhaps they will draw seats that will result in a dem majority, to force divided govt in 2020. Perhaps they just change around the AA seats in the east. Perhaps the GOP will try to claw onto their majority for 2 more years.  Who knows for now.

Key evidence: Plaintiff's expert drew 1000 sets of plans at random minimizing municipality splits, VTD splits, and compactness.

The random maps did remarkably better on municipality splits and VTD splits. I suspect that this was largely that the legislature map was not religiously avoiding splits.

The random maps also did better on partisan results. For example, based on a suite of 10 statewide races, the legislature's plan would have elected 42 Democrats to the House, while they typical random plan would have elected 46 or 47.

BUT

There are 120 House members. A "fairer" plan drawn with traditional redistricting criteria such as respecting political boundaries and compactness would increase the Democratic percentage from 35% to 39%.

It should be remember that it was a Republican-initiated lawsuit that forced the legislature to more closely follow the state constitution with regard to county split, led to the Republican legislative victory in 2010, even though the Democrats drew the map.
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