From the sh**t you can't make up pile

[© tweed]

I believe the second one does.  Not as confident on this one as a I was on the first two.

[J. J.]

I believe the second one does.  Not as confident on this one as a I was on the first two.

The second one doesn't, but it does show something else.  Here is the site:  http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm#terminology

Jfern makes a mistake that we are looking to see if the coin behaves as a fair coin.  In everything we've been looking at, it been to determine if the coin comes up enough to say that we're confident, in a statistical sense, that the coin behaves in a certain way.

Think of it this way.  We have a coin that we think is weighted to always come up heads.  From a statistical standpoint, we could say that if the came up heads 960 out of 1000, but we couldn't say that if it came up 940 out of 1000. 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

LOL at J.J. continuing to argue that 940 heads and 60 tails are not statistically significantly different from that of a fair coin.

[© tweed]

LOL at J.J. continuing to argue that 940 heads and 60 tails are not statistically significantly different from that of a fair coin.

LOL at jfern refusing to answer the two question JJ posed to him.

[Alcon]

J.J. and jfern,

I'm a patient fellow, but:

shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up

With love,

Alcon

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Really, this entire thread should be deleted, since not a single message in it has anything to do with Congressional elections.

[Joe Republic]

Is King Fahd dead yet?

Also, I'll echo what Alcon and NickG said right before this post.

[J. J.]

LOL at J.J. continuing to argue that 940 heads and 60 tails are not statistically significantly different from that of a fair coin.

LOL at jfern refusing to answer the two question JJ posed to him.

They are not trick questions.  I'm not attempting to be tricky here.

Alcon, what is precisely the number of times I've raised this?  I'll answer that for you.  Once.  I offered Jfern a full thread to discuss it.  He usually ends by not answering extremely simple question (well extremely simple for most people).

I will not raise it, but I will answer it.   I have no problem with you deleting any reference to it on the boards you moderate.

[ATFFL]

Deleted?  This thread should be stickied and archived.

[MaC]

J.J. and jfern,

I'm a patient fellow, but:

shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up

With love,

Alcon

In case you haven't heard Alcon:


Shhhhhhh.

[Alcon]

J.J. and jfern,

I'm a patient fellow, but:

shut up shut up shut up shut up shut up

With love,

Alcon

In case you haven't heard Alcon:


Shhhhhhh.

This is a library. 

[12th Doctor]

This 'misunderstanding' by jfern is a classic.

Very.  And he wonders why nobody believes him.

Yeah, but we don't to wonder anymore why he is so dilusional.  He believed the source he got this from without checking the story out for himself.  No wonder he believes everything on DU and DailyKOS

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

LOL at J.J. continuing to argue that 940 heads and 60 tails are not statistically significantly different from that of a fair coin.

LOL at jfern refusing to answer the two question JJ posed to him.

I already answered them a zillion times.

Really, this entire thread should be deleted, since not a single message in it has anything to do with Congressional elections.

The guy involved is a Congressman and a DeLay crony.

Is King Fahd dead yet?

Also, I'll echo what Alcon and NickG said right before this post.

Someone had mentioned a watch, so that's what I assumed it was. At least I admit I'm wrong, unlike J.J.

This 'misunderstanding' by jfern is a classic.

Very.  And he wonders why nobody believes him.

Yeah, but we don't to wonder anymore why he is so dilusional.  He believed the source he got this from without checking the story out for himself.  No wonder he believes everything on DU and DailyKOS

The story is true exactly as written, I just thought it'd be a watch.


People like J.J. who won't admit that they're wrong 9 months later need to STFU already. Doesn't anyone care about the actual story, or are you all idiots who would rather score cheap political points by bashing me? You are pathetic, and an example of why America is in such sh**tty shape.

[J. J.]

LOL at J.J. continuing to argue that 940 heads and 60 tails are not statistically significantly different from that of a fair coin.

LOL at jfern refusing to answer the two question JJ posed to him.

I already answered them a zillion times.

Oh, where?  You know, Boss Tweed answered it, with a minimum of fuss.  He claims to be 14 years old and doesn't claim to be a grad student (though he's obviously reasonably intelligent) and he was able to understand and answer the question.  Why couldn't you?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The guy involved is a Congressman and a DeLay crony.

[/quote]

If you read the first line of the article, you'd note this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This involves a Republican Primary for Governor in Colorado; it does not involve Tom DeLay.  Beauprez is a Representative like 434 other people; DeLay raised money for his Congressional races, but he isn't involved here.  DeLay has raised money for most sitting GOP members; I reasonably sure that we can find a Democrat that has done the same thing (Pelosi perhaps).  I don't claim that every Democrat is her "crony."

Now, it's interesting if you are particularly interested in CO politics, but it's not relevant to Congress.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I've quoted the article in its entirety.  The term "watch" does not appear.  It does not appear as a noun referring to a time piece word on a wrist or carried in a pocket.  It refers to having several thousand addresses on it.  It's kinda hard to confuse the two.

Here is an example, nobody mentioned "watch."  The article has been posted, yet you claim that, "Somebody had mentioned a watch."  That claim verifiable false, yet you repeat it.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Very.  And he wonders why nobody believes him.
[/quote]

Yeah, but we don't to wonder anymore why he is so dilusional.  He believed the source he got this from without checking the story out for himself.  No wonder he believes everything on DU and DailyKOS
[/quote]

The story is true exactly as written, I just thought it'd be a watch.


People like J.J. who won't admit that they're wrong 9 months later need to STFU already. Doesn't anyone care about the actual story, or are you all idiots who would rather score cheap political points by bashing me? You are pathetic, and an example of why America is in such sh**tty shape.
[/quote]

No, actually, we're are being honest, we quote sources, read the links that we post, and when we make a mistake, we correct it.  We don't try to concoct these lunatic theories, without evidence, and we actually read the post and the links that others do.  You post exceptionally error ridden things and then get called on it.  That is your fault, not those pointing it out.

I'm only happy to say that you are not representative of most of the Democrats in the county or on this board.   If you were, we'd be a one party, Republican, counrty.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

LOL at J.J. continuing to argue that 940 heads and 60 tails are not statistically significantly different from that of a fair coin.

LOL at jfern refusing to answer the two question JJ posed to him.

I already answered them a zillion times.

Oh, where?  You know, Boss Tweed answered it, with a minimum of fuss.  He claims to be 14 years old and doesn't claim to be a grad student (though he's obviously reasonably intelligent) and he was able to understand and answer the question.  Why couldn't you?

I already answered your stupid questions. It's clear that you're just too dense to accept that you're wrong.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The guy involved is a Congressman and a DeLay crony.

[/quote]

If you read the first line of the article, you'd note this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This involves a Republican Primary for Governor in Colorado; it does not involve Tom DeLay.  Beauprez is a Representative like 434 other people; DeLay raised money for his Congressional races, but he isn't involved here.  DeLay has raised money for most sitting GOP members; I reasonably sure that we can find a Democrat that has done the same thing (Pelosi perhaps).  I don't claim that every Democrat is her "crony."

Now, it's interesting if you are particularly interested in CO politics, but it's not relevant to Congress.

[/quote]
The point is, he's in Congress.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I've quoted the article in its entirety.  The term "watch" does not appear.  It does not appear as a noun referring to a time piece word on a wrist or carried in a pocket.  It refers to having several thousand addresses on it.  It's kinda hard to confuse the two.

Here is an example, nobody mentioned "watch."  The article has been posted, yet you claim that, "Somebody had mentioned a watch."  That claim verifiable false, yet you repeat it.

[/quote]
I never said anyone here mentioned watch. This is 2005, devices the size of a watch can be used for things under than telling time.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Very.  And he wonders why nobody believes him.
[/quote]

Yeah, but we don't to wonder anymore why he is so dilusional.  He believed the source he got this from without checking the story out for himself.  No wonder he believes everything on DU and DailyKOS
[/quote]

The story is true exactly as written, I just thought it'd be a watch.


People like J.J. who won't admit that they're wrong 9 months later need to STFU already. Doesn't anyone care about the actual story, or are you all idiots who would rather score cheap political points by bashing me? You are pathetic, and an example of why America is in such sh**tty shape.
[/quote]

No, actually, we're are being honest, we quote sources, read the links that we post, and when we make a mistake, we correct it.  We don't try to concoct these lunatic theories, without evidence, and we actually read the post and the links that others do.  You post exceptionally error ridden things and then get called on it.  That is your fault, not those pointing it out.

I'm only happy to say that you are not representative of most of the Democrats in the county or on this board.   If you were, we'd be a one party, Republican, counrty.
[/quote]

It's sad that you continue to bash that I got part of the story wrong, and ignore the actual story, after I admit that I got it wrong because of what someone else says. This all coming from someone with ZERO CREDIBILITY thanks to 9 months of arguing the same wrong position to a basic statistics course.

[J. J.]

I never said anyone here mentioned watch. This is 2005, devices the size of a watch can be used for things under than telling time.

Here is your first post:

One of DeLay's cronies in the House is accused of stealing a watch from another Republican.

http://coloradopols.com/archives/2005/10/holtzman_campai_1.html

Now, you've just given anybody reading this ample reason why we shouldn't believe you about anything.

Now, you've claimed that you answered my question.  Okay, where?  Just post the link.

The race Beauprez is in is NOT a congressional race.  This is a governor's race and has no relation to his congressional activities.

At this point, you've contradicted your first post on this thread; you can't even tell the truth about your own posts on the same thread.  And everybody gets a chance to read it.

I will say this, the title for this thread is quite appropriate.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I never said anyone here mentioned watch. This is 2005, devices the size of a watch can be used for things under than telling time.

Here is your first post:

One of DeLay's cronies in the House is accused of stealing a watch from another Republican.

http://coloradopols.com/archives/2005/10/holtzman_campai_1.html

Now, you've just given anybody reading this ample reason why we shouldn't believe you about anything.

Now, you've claimed that you anserwed my question.  Okay, where?  Just post the link.

The race Beauprez is in is NOT a congressional race.  This is a governor's race.

At this point, you've contradicted your first post on this thread; you can't even tell the truth about your own posts on the same thread.  And everydody gets a chance to read it.

You ing dishonest peice of trash. Beauprez is a Congressman. Yes, I know it's not a congressional race.

As for the questons, you are ing busted.

Here's what you asked.

1. Okay, based on the 940 heads out of 1000 can you claim, with 95% certainty, that the coin comes up heads? 

Already answered here:

1. The set of all possible coin flips is infinite, so none of your post applies
2. Even if it was finite, it would still be statistically significant.
3. When I say that it's statistically significantly different at the 95% confidence level, that means that if
a) The null hypothesis is correct
then I falsely reject it at most 5% of the time. You don't seem to understand that. You say "5% chance that the poll is wrong", but who cares, it's irrelevant to statistical significance at the 95% confidence level, and you can't just say the poll has a 5% chance of being wrong anyways, it's a 5% chance of falsely rejecting the null hypothesis, which is meaningless if the null hypothesis is false.

1.  We are discussing a sample, 1000 tosses.

2.  You could not determine that, with a 95% chance of certainty, that the coin will come up heads.  The theory that is being tested is, does the coin always come up heads, not if the coin beats the odds.

You are referring to probability, not statistics.

1. 1000 coin tosses is a sample of 1000 from an infinite population.

2. I never said that you'd be 95% certain that the next coin would be heads. That's not what were were arguing about. That's not required to conclude that there are statistically significantly more heads than tails (with 95% confidence). If it was 50.000001% heads, and I did 10^100 coin tosses, I should basically always reject the null hypothesis of a fair coin. 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This queston doesn't even make sense.

End of argument, you liar who thinks that 940 heads and 60 tails can't possibly be statistically significant.

[MaC]

This is a library. 

Zzzzzzzip it!

[minionofmidas]

The guy involved is a Congressman and a DeLay crony.

And he represents a highly marginal district.

Is King Fahd dead yet?

Aye.

[J. J.]

You ing dishonest peice of trash. Beauprez is a Congressman. Yes, I know it's not a congressional race.

As for the questons, you are ing busted.

If you "know" that this is not a congressional election, why did you post it under section called  "Congressional Elections?"

Now, this is an interesting story about the Colorado Republican Primary for governor, but not a congressional election.  It's not related to DeLay at all.  It is exceptionally doubtful that DeLay knows any more about it than what has been released publicly, if he even read the story.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Already answered here:

1. The set of all possible coin flips is infinite, so none of your post applies
2. Even if it was finite, it would still be statistically significant.
3. When I say that it's statistically significantly different at the 95% confidence level, that means that if
a) The null hypothesis is correct
then I falsely reject it at most 5% of the time. You don't seem to understand that. You say "5% chance that the poll is wrong", but who cares, it's irrelevant to statistical significance at the 95% confidence level, and you can't just say the poll has a 5% chance of being wrong anyways, it's a 5% chance of falsely rejecting the null hypothesis, which is meaningless if the null hypothesis is false.

1.  We are discussing a sample, 1000 tosses.

2.  You could not determine that, with a 95% chance of certainty, that the coin will come up heads.  The theory that is being tested is, does the coin always come up heads, not if the coin beats the odds.

You are referring to probability, not statistics.

1. 1000 coin tosses is a sample of 1000 from an infinite population.

2. I never said that you'd be 95% certain that the next coin would be heads. That's not what were were arguing about. That's not required to conclude that there are statistically significantly more heads than tails (with 95% confidence). If it was 50.000001% heads, and I did 10^100 coin tosses, I should basically always reject the null hypothesis of a fair coin. 

You'll note that you never answered the question (and in this post, I actually didn't ask a question). 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This queston doesn't even make sense.

End of argument, you liar who thinks that 940 heads and 60 tails can't possibly be statistically significant.
[/quote]

You don't understand expected value?  Here is the Wiki articale on it:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value

What doesn't make sense, is that Tweed (and no offense here Tweed) who doesn't claim to have or be working on an advanced graduate degree (and it possible, but most people his age don't), understands it.  You, who claim an to be a grad student that has studied this, don't.

People can read this thread and judge both your accuracy and ability.

[TheresNoMoney]

I heard about this story a few days ago and supposedly it is making waves in the state of Colorado. Funny stuff.

[J. J.]

I heard about this story a few days ago and supposedly it is making waves in the state of Colorado. Funny stuff.

You have to read this story.  The Holtzman Rolodex is making the rounds.

http://chieftain.com/metro/1126615787/15

[Joe Republic]

I never said anyone here mentioned watch. This is 2005, devices the size of a watch can be used for things under than telling time.

Here is your first post:

One of DeLay's cronies in the House is accused of stealing a watch from another Republican.

http://coloradopols.com/archives/2005/10/holtzman_campai_1.html

Bumped, for some kind of response.  Jfern, did you actually read the article before you posted it here?

[??????????]

...Rolodex watch...ahahahahaha

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

You ing dishonest peice of trash. Beauprez is a Congressman. Yes, I know it's not a congressional race.

As for the questons, you are ing busted.

If you "know" that this is not a congressional election, why did you post it under section called  "Congressional Elections?"

Now, this is an interesting story about the Colorado Republican Primary for governor, but not a congressional election.  It's not related to DeLay at all.  It is exceptionally doubtful that DeLay knows any more about it than what has been released publicly, if he even read the story.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Already answered here:

1. The set of all possible coin flips is infinite, so none of your post applies
2. Even if it was finite, it would still be statistically significant.
3. When I say that it's statistically significantly different at the 95% confidence level, that means that if
a) The null hypothesis is correct
then I falsely reject it at most 5% of the time. You don't seem to understand that. You say "5% chance that the poll is wrong", but who cares, it's irrelevant to statistical significance at the 95% confidence level, and you can't just say the poll has a 5% chance of being wrong anyways, it's a 5% chance of falsely rejecting the null hypothesis, which is meaningless if the null hypothesis is false.

1.  We are discussing a sample, 1000 tosses.

2.  You could not determine that, with a 95% chance of certainty, that the coin will come up heads.  The theory that is being tested is, does the coin always come up heads, not if the coin beats the odds.

You are referring to probability, not statistics.

1. 1000 coin tosses is a sample of 1000 from an infinite population.

2. I never said that you'd be 95% certain that the next coin would be heads. That's not what were were arguing about. That's not required to conclude that there are statistically significantly more heads than tails (with 95% confidence). If it was 50.000001% heads, and I did 10^100 coin tosses, I should basically always reject the null hypothesis of a fair coin. 

You'll note that you never answered the question (and in this post, I actually didn't ask a question). 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This queston doesn't even make sense.

End of argument, you liar who thinks that 940 heads and 60 tails can't possibly be statistically significant.

You don't understand expected value?  Here is the Wiki articale on it:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value

What doesn't make sense, is that Tweed (and no offense here Tweed) who doesn't claim to have or be working on an advanced graduate degree (and it possible, but most people his age don't), understands it.  You, who claim an to be a grad student that has studied this, don't.

People can read this thread and judge both your accuracy and ability.
[/quote]

Your question indicates that you are incapable of asking a precise statistical question. Perhaps you meant is the coin behaving statistically significantly different from what was expected (a fair coin).

I never said anyone here mentioned watch. This is 2005, devices the size of a watch can be used for things under than telling time.

Here is your first post:

One of DeLay's cronies in the House is accused of stealing a watch from another Republican.

http://coloradopols.com/archives/2005/10/holtzman_campai_1.html

Bumped, for some kind of response.  Jfern, did you actually read the article before you posted it here?

Someone had mentioned a watch, and I quickly skimmed it, and didn't catch that it was a Rolodex, which I only now know isn't a watch.