Which states are moving left because Trump is alienating educated whites?

[pppolitics]

Trump may how won over blue collar whites, but the trade-off is that he's losing educated white.

Which states are trending left as a result?

[5280]

Trump should try to win over white AND blue collared voters, not just one demographic.

[pppolitics]

Trump should try to win over white AND blue collared voters, not just one demographic.

Every time Trump opens his mouth, he alienates educated whites.

[here2view]

Virginia

[Tekken_Guy]

Virginia, Colorado, California, Minnesota, Utah, Arizona.

Honestly, I think this trend is more pronounced in metro areas than states.

[Thunder98]

Virginia, Georgia, Arizona, Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Colorado, New Hampshire, Connecticut, New Jersey and Texas

[cvparty]

It would be pretty difficult to find a state moving toward Democrats where college whites are the group most responsible for this.

Almost all of the states named here are defined by fast-growing large metros, like Atlanta, Phoenix, or DC. College whites tend to be a part of this growth, but a larger share of the change in voting patterns is attributable to growth of other population groups, especially Hispanics and Asians.

Increased educational attainment also matters among these other groups, not just among non-Hispanic whites. For Hispanics or Asians, any differences in their propensity to vote for Democrats are overwhelmed by the increase in their likelihood to vote.

And all of this is just talking numbers, not cause and effect. Only a portion of the movement among "educated whites" is attributable to their feeling alienated by Trump.

but arizona and texas both swung 6-7 points D in 2016. are you saying this is mostly from an increase of minorities’ share of the electorate in the last 4 years?

[RINO Tom]

It would be pretty difficult to find a state moving toward Democrats where college whites are the group most responsible for this.

Almost all of the states named here are defined by fast-growing large metros, like Atlanta, Phoenix, or DC. College whites tend to be a part of this growth, but a larger share of the change in voting patterns is attributable to growth of other population groups, especially Hispanics and Asians.

Increased educational attainment also matters among these other groups, not just among non-Hispanic whites. For Hispanics or Asians, any differences in their propensity to vote for Democrats are overwhelmed by the increase in their likelihood to vote.

And all of this is just talking numbers, not cause and effect. Only a portion of the movement among "educated whites" is attributable to their feeling alienated by Trump.

but arizona and texas both swung 6-7 points D in 2016. are you saying this is mostly from an increase of minorities’ share of the electorate in the last 4 years?

Most of the shift in Texas was from the cities and suburbs surrounding it. So, it could be educated whites, or it could be a transplant scenario like Arizona or Georgia, where the new people coming in are shifting the electorate into a more D direction. What's important to note is that Trump actually improved on Romney's numbers, its just that Hillary's shot up.

2012:
Romney(R)-4,569,843
Obama(D)-3,308,124

2016:
Trump(R)-4,685,047
Clinton(D)-3,877,868

Overall Change:
R +115,204
D +569,744

And in Arizona, it was mostly a case of Republicans and GOP leaners not supporting the Republican nominee, which is not the same as supporting the Democrat.

2016
Trump (R-NY): 1,252,401 (49.03%)
Clinton (D-NY): 1,161,167 (45.46%)

2012
Romney (R-MA): 1,233,654 (53.48%)
Obama (D-IL): 1,025,232 (44.45%)

Hillary barely improved 1% on Obama's numbers; Trump dropped nearly 4.5% from Romney's.  Democrats weren't markedly closer to 50% this time around, thought the margin obviously tightened.  I'm obviously not making any 2018 or 2020 predictions, though, just pointing out that there wasn't necessarily an exodus of former Republicans to Democrats in AZ.

[NOVA Green]

It would be pretty difficult to find a state moving toward Democrats where college whites are the group most responsible for this.

Almost all of the states named here are defined by fast-growing large metros, like Atlanta, Phoenix, or DC. College whites tend to be a part of this growth, but a larger share of the change in voting patterns is attributable to growth of other population groups, especially Hispanics and Asians.

Increased educational attainment also matters among these other groups, not just among non-Hispanic whites. For Hispanics or Asians, any differences in their propensity to vote for Democrats are overwhelmed by the increase in their likelihood to vote.

And all of this is just talking numbers, not cause and effect. Only a portion of the movement among "educated whites" is attributable to their feeling alienated by Trump.

but arizona and texas both swung 6-7 points D in 2016. are you saying this is mostly from an increase of minorities’ share of the electorate in the last 4 years?

Most of the shift in Texas was from the cities and suburbs surrounding it. So, it could be educated whites, or it could be a transplant scenario like Arizona or Georgia, where the new people coming in are shifting the electorate into a more D direction. What's important to note is that Trump actually improved on Romney's numbers, its just that Hillary's shot up.

2012:
Romney(R)-4,569,843
Obama(D)-3,308,124

2016:
Trump(R)-4,685,047
Clinton(D)-3,877,868

Overall Change:
R +115,204
D +569,744

And in Arizona, it was mostly a case of Republicans and GOP leaners not supporting the Republican nominee, which is not the same as supporting the Democrat.

2016
Trump (R-NY): 1,252,401 (49.03%)
Clinton (D-NY): 1,161,167 (45.46%)

2012
Romney (R-MA): 1,233,654 (53.48%)
Obama (D-IL): 1,025,232 (44.45%)

Hillary barely improved 1% on Obama's numbers; Trump dropped nearly 4.5% from Romney's.  Democrats weren't markedly closer to 50% this time around, thought the margin obviously tightened.  I'm obviously not making any 2018 or 2020 predictions, though, just pointing out that there wasn't necessarily an exodus of former Republicans to Democrats in AZ.

The improvement from Obama '12 > Clinton '16 was actually a +13.3% increase in total Democratic Presidential ballots cast however between those two elections, so either most of these were either younger voters or recent transplants to the State, unless this number also included some Romney > HRC voters (Which is more than likely considering precinct numbers we see from Upper-Middle Class/ Educated Anglo data from Maricopa County)....

Additionally considering the relatively high number of 3rd Party Voters in '16 (Although lower in AZ than in many other States) it's not unreasonable to see a pretty decent chunk of those being Democratic leaning ballots, which would further increase the amount of Romney / HRC cross-over voters.

Not to challenge your fundamental point: "that there wasn't necessarily an exodus of former Republicans to Democrats in Arizona", and it is certainly true that the swings towards HRC were generally a bit lower among these types of voters in many parts of Maricopa County than elsewhere in the Country, but as I pointed out recently on another thread, it is precisely the movement towards the Democratic Party among these voters between '12 and '16 that is the main driver towards Maricopa County becoming competitive at the Presidential level.

I do agree that the jury is still out on how these types of voters will respond in '18 / '20 and beyond, but my suspicion is that we will continue to see movement towards the Democrats, at least in AZ, with Trump being the 'Pub Pres waving the torch for the Party so to speak.

[uti2]

It would be pretty difficult to find a state moving toward Democrats where college whites are the group most responsible for this.

Almost all of the states named here are defined by fast-growing large metros, like Atlanta, Phoenix, or DC. College whites tend to be a part of this growth, but a larger share of the change in voting patterns is attributable to growth of other population groups, especially Hispanics and Asians.

Increased educational attainment also matters among these other groups, not just among non-Hispanic whites. For Hispanics or Asians, any differences in their propensity to vote for Democrats are overwhelmed by the increase in their likelihood to vote.

And all of this is just talking numbers, not cause and effect. Only a portion of the movement among "educated whites" is attributable to their feeling alienated by Trump.

but arizona and texas both swung 6-7 points D in 2016. are you saying this is mostly from an increase of minorities’ share of the electorate in the last 4 years?

Most of the shift in Texas was from the cities and suburbs surrounding it. So, it could be educated whites, or it could be a transplant scenario like Arizona or Georgia, where the new people coming in are shifting the electorate into a more D direction. What's important to note is that Trump actually improved on Romney's numbers, its just that Hillary's shot up.

2012:
Romney(R)-4,569,843
Obama(D)-3,308,124

2016:
Trump(R)-4,685,047
Clinton(D)-3,877,868

Overall Change:
R +115,204
D +569,744

And in Arizona, it was mostly a case of Republicans and GOP leaners not supporting the Republican nominee, which is not the same as supporting the Democrat.

2016
Trump (R-NY): 1,252,401 (49.03%)
Clinton (D-NY): 1,161,167 (45.46%)

2012
Romney (R-MA): 1,233,654 (53.48%)
Obama (D-IL): 1,025,232 (44.45%)

Hillary barely improved 1% on Obama's numbers; Trump dropped nearly 4.5% from Romney's.  Democrats weren't markedly closer to 50% this time around, thought the margin obviously tightened.  I'm obviously not making any 2018 or 2020 predictions, though, just pointing out that there wasn't necessarily an exodus of former Republicans to Democrats in AZ.

Flake only won by ~3% in 2012, maybe it was Romney who overperformed?

[NOVA Green]

It would be pretty difficult to find a state moving toward Democrats where college whites are the group most responsible for this.

Almost all of the states named here are defined by fast-growing large metros, like Atlanta, Phoenix, or DC. College whites tend to be a part of this growth, but a larger share of the change in voting patterns is attributable to growth of other population groups, especially Hispanics and Asians.

Increased educational attainment also matters among these other groups, not just among non-Hispanic whites. For Hispanics or Asians, any differences in their propensity to vote for Democrats are overwhelmed by the increase in their likelihood to vote.

And all of this is just talking numbers, not cause and effect. Only a portion of the movement among "educated whites" is attributable to their feeling alienated by Trump.

but arizona and texas both swung 6-7 points D in 2016. are you saying this is mostly from an increase of minorities’ share of the electorate in the last 4 years?

Most of the shift in Texas was from the cities and suburbs surrounding it. So, it could be educated whites, or it could be a transplant scenario like Arizona or Georgia, where the new people coming in are shifting the electorate into a more D direction. What's important to note is that Trump actually improved on Romney's numbers, its just that Hillary's shot up.

2012:
Romney(R)-4,569,843
Obama(D)-3,308,124

2016:
Trump(R)-4,685,047
Clinton(D)-3,877,868

Overall Change:
R +115,204
D +569,744

And in Arizona, it was mostly a case of Republicans and GOP leaners not supporting the Republican nominee, which is not the same as supporting the Democrat.

2016
Trump (R-NY): 1,252,401 (49.03%)
Clinton (D-NY): 1,161,167 (45.46%)

2012
Romney (R-MA): 1,233,654 (53.48%)
Obama (D-IL): 1,025,232 (44.45%)

Hillary barely improved 1% on Obama's numbers; Trump dropped nearly 4.5% from Romney's.  Democrats weren't markedly closer to 50% this time around, thought the margin obviously tightened.  I'm obviously not making any 2018 or 2020 predictions, though, just pointing out that there wasn't necessarily an exodus of former Republicans to Democrats in AZ.

Flake only won by ~3% in 2012, maybe it was Romney who overperformed?

Good point, especially considering the results of the 2008 Presidential Election in Arizona:

2008:

Obama (D-IL)---     1,034,707 (44.9%)
Romney (R-MA)---   1,230,111 (53.4%)

Still, in the 2012 Pres Race in Arizona, it appears that both parties failed to significantly increase their raw total vote numbers, despite continued VAP growth within Arizona....

To what extent was there relatively low voter turnout and enthusiasm among the respective local party base for both candidates that potentially masked increasing shifts towards the Democratic Party Candidate in '16, among various Demographics?

Granted '08 was an unusual Pres election year in AZ, since for the first time since '64 you had a local well known, respected, political figure running that might well have skewed the numbers a bit compared to the swings we observed in most other parts of the US in '08.

All that aside, one nugget to mention, is that Arizona voter participation levels have increased dramatically over the past ten years, and the state is increasingly primarily becoming an overwhelmingly Vote-by-Mail (VbM) State, which might well account for the dramatic increase in voter turnout we have observed over the past few election cycles.

We *DID* see some interesting numbers in AZ CD-08 in the recent special election, especially in heavily Upper Middle-Class Middle-Aged Educated Anglo precincts, and it's entirely plausible that this trend of increased voter turnout levels, will continue to benefit Dem's at all election levels in Arizona, regardless of increased voter turnout levels and Democratic Party support among Working-Class Latinos....

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ohio