Rate Colorado in 2020
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Poll
Question: ?
#1
Safe D
 
#2
Likely D
 
#3
Lean D
 
#4
Toss Up
 
#5
Lean R
 
#6
Likely R
 
#7
Safe R
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 106

Author Topic: Rate Colorado in 2020  (Read 1383 times)
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andjey
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« Reply #25 on: July 08, 2018, 03:12:33 AM »

Likely D
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Senator Cris
Cris
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« Reply #26 on: July 08, 2018, 01:52:08 PM »

Lean D. It might be Likely D, but at this early stage I think the former is more appropriate.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #27 on: July 08, 2018, 03:00:37 PM »

Likely D.

The state of Colorado is similar to VA. Two Bush states that went for Obama twice and then for Clinton. The voters in both states are transplants that came from more liberal states to a growing area, VA its NOVA, CO its Denver and its surroundings. The states are rather inelastic, and dont shift too much.

Many people here have pointed out the victory of Cory Gardner as proof that the state is not too far gone or that the state could vote Trump in 2020. I have heard this type of reasoning before. It was used in 2017 to justify how Gillespie could win the Governor's race. "He lost the senate race in 2014 by around 1 in a surprise twist, so he can win again." The problem with this reasoning is that it blocks out the other factors that created the election. In CO, it was an R wave year, Mark Udall was a terrible candidate, Cory campaigned as a sort of Mark Kirk type R, etc. To say that Cory winning in CO justifies a tossup, lean R, or lean D rating is the same as IL and saying that it would be only lean D or likely D because Mark Kirk won, or taking MA and AL, and saying that they are trending the opposite direction and will be competitive in the next election.

The truth of the matter is, the state of CO is out of the competitive column. It has been trending D since 2008, and has not stopped. Even in 2016, where it trended R, it was less that the presidential swing, indicating a D trend. I think CO and NM are on the Dem side, for now, at least. NV and MN are the only states that Clinton won that Trump could take, and thats really, really, really, really pushing it.
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gerritcole
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« Reply #28 on: July 08, 2018, 03:10:00 PM »

Likely D.

The state of Colorado is similar to VA. Two Bush states that went for Obama twice and then for Clinton. The voters in both states are transplants that came from more liberal states to a growing area, VA its NOVA, CO its Denver and its surroundings. The states are rather inelastic, and dont shift too much.

Many people here have pointed out the victory of Cory Gardner as proof that the state is not too far gone or that the state could vote Trump in 2020. I have heard this type of reasoning before. It was used in 2017 to justify how Gillespie could win the Governor's race. "He lost the senate race in 2014 by around 1 in a surprise twist, so he can win again." The problem with this reasoning is that it blocks out the other factors that created the election. In CO, it was an R wave year, Mark Udall was a terrible candidate, Cory campaigned as a sort of Mark Kirk type R, etc. To say that Cory winning in CO justifies a tossup, lean R, or lean D rating is the same as IL and saying that it would be only lean D or likely D because Mark Kirk won, or taking MA and AL, and saying that they are trending the opposite direction and will be competitive in the next election.

The truth of the matter is, the state of CO is out of the competitive column. It has been trending D since 2008, and has not stopped. Even in 2016, where it trended R, it was less that the presidential swing, indicating a D trend. I think CO and NM are on the Dem side, for now, at least. NV and MN are the only states that Clinton won that Trump could take, and thats really, really, really, really pushing it.

Trump could take NH
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5280
MagneticFree
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« Reply #29 on: July 08, 2018, 05:47:11 PM »

What would it take to make CO back to a light red state again?
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TML
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« Reply #30 on: July 08, 2018, 08:04:42 PM »

What would it take to make CO back to a light red state again?

The last time Republicans won CO, they won the suburban Denver counties of Jefferson, Arapahoe, and Broomfield. In fact, those counties (or their equivalent areas) used to vote R for many decades (the only time they went D between 1940 and 2004 was in 1964). If the Republicans can find a way to flip these counties back, then they can probably win back CO.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #31 on: July 08, 2018, 08:05:39 PM »

What would it take to make CO back to a light red state again?

The last time Republicans won CO, they won the suburban Denver counties of Jefferson, Arapahoe, and Broomfield. In fact, those counties (or their equivalent areas) used to vote R for many decades (the only time they went D between 1940 and 2004 was in 1964). If the Republicans can find a way to flip these counties back, then they can probably win back CO.

They don't necessarily have to win them. But they have to keep them very close like Gardner did.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=8&year=2014&f=0&off=3&elect=0&class=2
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gerritcole
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« Reply #32 on: July 08, 2018, 11:15:37 PM »

What would it take to make CO back to a light red state again?

The last time Republicans won CO, they won the suburban Denver counties of Jefferson, Arapahoe, and Broomfield. In fact, those counties (or their equivalent areas) used to vote R for many decades (the only time they went D between 1940 and 2004 was in 1964). If the Republicans can find a way to flip these counties back, then they can probably win back CO.

They don't necessarily have to win them. But they have to keep them very close like Gardner did.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=8&year=2014&f=0&off=3&elect=0&class=2

I think that a result of Udall not taking the race seriously more so than Gardner doing anything special
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scutosaurus
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« Reply #33 on: July 08, 2018, 11:20:30 PM »

What would it take to make CO back to a light red state again?

It's impossible. Maybe, just maybe, a Republican could win a single statewide race (even if it is quite unlikely) at some point in the near future, but the Democratic voter coalition that has developed in CO is too much for it to become consistently light red. Front Range liberals, ski country transplants, rising levels of non-whites, a multitude of suburban voters increasingly hostile to conservatives - there's a reason Cory Gardner's approval rating is in the 20s.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #34 on: July 08, 2018, 11:39:14 PM »

What would it take to make CO back to a light red state again?

The last time Republicans won CO, they won the suburban Denver counties of Jefferson, Arapahoe, and Broomfield. In fact, those counties (or their equivalent areas) used to vote R for many decades (the only time they went D between 1940 and 2004 was in 1964). If the Republicans can find a way to flip these counties back, then they can probably win back CO.

They don't necessarily have to win them. But they have to keep them very close like Gardner did.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=8&year=2014&f=0&off=3&elect=0&class=2

I think that a result of Udall not taking the race seriously more so than Gardner doing anything special

Udall did take Gardner seriously, he just didn't know how to run a campaign, lol. It was actually fairly surprising the race was within 2 points when all was said and done. I think most people expected Gardner to win by a far bigger margin considering Udall basically became a punchline by the end.

But yeah, I'm just talking geography here. He proved Republicans don't need to actually win any of those counties to win the state overall, they just need to keep them somewhat close, something that I highly doubt Trump could do.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #35 on: July 09, 2018, 10:49:10 AM »

What would it take to make CO back to a light red state again?

Another Eisenhower. Remember that Obama has much the same temperament as Eisenhower, and won only one state (North Carolina, barely and once) that Ike ever lost. Note that Eisenhower won  Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Rhode Island together -- which no Republican has done since the 1920s -- and did it twice. Ike won Virginia  for the first time as a Republican in 24 years, and Obama won Virginia for the first time in 44 years -- and did so twice.

This goes beyond coincidence. Obama did badly in ranch country, though.   
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Not Me, Us
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« Reply #36 on: July 09, 2018, 11:59:04 AM »

Likely D.  While it's certainly within Trump's absolute ceiling, it's very unlikely that he wins it.
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Filinovich
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« Reply #37 on: July 09, 2018, 12:35:22 PM »

Likely D, not voting Republican since Bush 2004
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Nyssus
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« Reply #38 on: July 09, 2018, 05:19:46 PM »

Colorado will very likely vote Democratic. It hasn't voted GOP since it voted for Bush in 2004, and it's not going back to a GOP state anytime in the near future.
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5280
MagneticFree
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« Reply #39 on: July 09, 2018, 05:33:55 PM »

Since CO won't vote for another GOP candidate, do you think conservatives will start migrating out of the state similar to California is currently? I've already seen it myself as I have friends on the right side move to a cheaper COL area.
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Suburban Republican
omelott
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« Reply #40 on: July 09, 2018, 06:15:14 PM »

Likely D. Sorry, but I can't see Trump winning here.
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