Rate Utah in 2020
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Poll
Question: ?
#1
Safe D		  
#2
Likely D		  
#3
Lean D		  
#4
Tossup		  
#5
Lean R		  
#6
Likely R		  
#7
Safe R		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 81

Author Topic: Rate Utah in 2020  (Read 1350 times)
FDB
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« on: July 05, 2018, 05:26:53 PM »
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redjohn
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« Reply #1 on: July 05, 2018, 06:11:08 PM »
Safe R.
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wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #2 on: July 05, 2018, 06:12:51 PM »
Without a third party candidate: Safe R

With a third party candidate: Safe R

If Trump is caught on tape taking a fat dump on the Book of Mormon: Likely R, bordering on Safe R
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IceSpear
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« Reply #3 on: July 05, 2018, 06:14:34 PM »
Safe R. Even with a tailor made for Utah Republican Mormon third party candidate, the (R) carried the day by a landslide.

In fact, Utah is in an interesting position in that it was guaranteed to swing D no matter what in 2016, and is likely guaranteed to swing R no matter what in 2020.
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Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸
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« Reply #4 on: July 05, 2018, 06:17:13 PM »
Safe R   
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TDAS04
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« Reply #5 on: July 05, 2018, 06:31:02 PM »
As much as Trump underperformed in 2016, Utah was not close; he carried it by 18%.  Safe R.
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
New Frontier
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« Reply #6 on: July 05, 2018, 06:56:11 PM »
Quote from: TDAS04 on July 05, 2018, 06:31:02 PM
As much as Trump underperformed in 2016, Utah was not close; he carried it by 18%.  Safe R.
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
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« Reply #7 on: July 05, 2018, 07:37:43 PM »
Likely R.
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« Reply #8 on: July 05, 2018, 09:09:41 PM »
Likely R
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Alabama_Indy10
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« Reply #9 on: July 05, 2018, 09:12:57 PM »
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Dr. MB
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« Reply #10 on: July 05, 2018, 09:16:24 PM »
Likely R, but accidentally voted Likely D.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: July 05, 2018, 09:23:09 PM »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on July 05, 2018, 08:02:31 PM
Lean D - Manchin, JBE
Toss-up - Biden, Bullock, Tester
Lean R - Warren, Sanders
Likely R - Harris, Booker, Castro
Safe R - Clinton

lmao
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New Frontier
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« Reply #12 on: July 05, 2018, 09:29:03 PM »
Utah is the MOST Republican state in the country (tied with Wyoming), according to Cook PVI.

Anyone who doesn't think that Utah is Safe R must be insane and/or living in an alternate universe.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #13 on: July 05, 2018, 09:30:19 PM »
Quote from: New Frontier on July 05, 2018, 09:29:03 PM
Utah is the MOST Republican state in the country (tied with Wyoming), according to Cook PVI.

Anyone who doesn't think that Utah is Safe R must be insane and/or living in an alternate universe.

They're still stuck in May 2016.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #14 on: July 05, 2018, 10:49:49 PM »
Safe R in most Presidential elections, unless the LDS hierarchy dissents with Trump and endorses a third-party conservative independent.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #15 on: July 05, 2018, 11:28:20 PM »
It'd take someone like Barack Obama in '08 AND a good conservative 3rd party campaign to flip it right now, now that there's been a little bit of acceptance regarding Trump.

That said, I could see the Democrat get into the high 30's/low 40's for the first time since Humphrey in just the right conditions, since Trump is still not really popular.
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An American Tail: Fubart Goes West
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #16 on: July 06, 2018, 12:04:16 AM »
Safe R without a right or center-right challenger (Kasich, Flake, Romney). I doubt Kasich would win, Flake (Mormon and from a neighboring state) could have a shot, and Romney would have a very good shot. McMullin's problem (aside from being a virtual nobody) is that he started too late and didn't have enough time to get on more ballots, which probably would've boosted his candidacy. McMullin's path was to win college educated Mormons, which he didn't do well enough at. Maybe someone could do it better? As others have said though, Trump is more accepted in Utah than he was in late 2016.

I don't think the Dem side matters. Unless there's a perfect split on the right and a very, very good Dem candidate for the state (Bullock?), the Dems can't win Utah.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #17 on: July 06, 2018, 06:38:15 AM »
An effective Independent conservative nominee could win in Utah with Trump approval in the 30s -- if Utah Democrats decide to not waste their votes on the Democratic nominee who at the best might get 40% of the vote in a binary race. Trump in 2016 did worse in Utah than did Goldwater in 1964, which is a dubious achievement in the extreme..

Trump got 45% of the vote in Utah, which is an execrable performance for a Republican -- and he has done nothing to gain support. I can imagine Utah going 40I-35R-15 D. if Democrats go along with giving a hard message to Trump.

Utah voters do not like corruption, perverse sexuality, non-market economics, or reckless foreign policy.As I see it, Utah has the strongest chance of ending up with an Atlas green color since 1924 (Lafollette winning Wisconsin) without  voting for a racist splinter (Strom Thurmond, George Wallace) from the Democratic Party. 
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #18 on: July 06, 2018, 08:09:32 AM »
Safe R.

I mean, despite Trump being a bad fit for Utah and a strong challenge by a conservative independent candidate, he won this state by 18 points. Also, keep in mind that independent candidates tend to underperform the poll numbers, and that's what happened with McMullin.
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Consciously Unconscious
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« Reply #19 on: July 06, 2018, 08:33:22 AM »
The Utah could flip meme was fun while it lasted. It's time to be serious though. Safe R
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #20 on: July 06, 2018, 09:51:23 AM »
The safest of R
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Greatblueheron
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« Reply #21 on: July 06, 2018, 10:02:47 AM »
Safe R.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #22 on: July 06, 2018, 05:58:32 PM »
Safe R of course. I don't even think an independent campaign would matter anymore. 2016 was the only time that could have happened. Now that Trump has been able to govern, I'm sure more Utah Republicans are now on board with him. Principles always come second.
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andjey
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« Reply #23 on: July 08, 2018, 02:59:01 AM »
Without McMullin: Safe R
With McMullin:Lean R/Likely R
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Nyssus
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« Reply #24 on: July 09, 2018, 05:37:15 PM »
Safe R. Trump will almost certainly get at least 60% of the statewide vote, and it wouldn't be too difficult for him to get 70% or above.
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