Why did Colorado flip to Dole in 1996
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  Why did Colorado flip to Dole in 1996
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Author Topic: Why did Colorado flip to Dole in 1996  (Read 1517 times)
Bojack Horseman
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« on: July 05, 2018, 07:16:23 PM »

I've always wondered this when looking at the 1996 map. It's understandable that Georgia flipped to Dole being a southern R state, but Colorado has always perplexed me, especially considering its history of electing D governors.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #1 on: July 05, 2018, 07:36:46 PM »

Maybe environmental regulations and/or the assault weapons ban played a role?
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dw93
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« Reply #2 on: July 05, 2018, 08:23:52 PM »

I don't think Clinton would've won the state in '92 without Perot (same goes for Montana and Georgia), Perot getting less votes in 1996 is probably why all three of those states flipped to Dole, though Perot could be why Arizona flipped Clinton in '96.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #3 on: July 05, 2018, 08:38:02 PM »

Most of the West swung Republican.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #4 on: July 05, 2018, 11:51:07 PM »

I don't think Clinton would've won the state in '92 without Perot (same goes for Montana and Georgia), Perot getting less votes in 1996 is probably why all three of those states flipped to Dole, though Perot could be why Arizona flipped Clinton in '96.

No, Clinton put pretty much everything into Arizona and Florida. There's a reason Arizona voted to the left of Nevada that year.

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136or142
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« Reply #5 on: July 07, 2018, 03:40:05 AM »

Most of the West swung Republican.

No it didn't. Only five states switched from 1992. 
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TDAS04
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« Reply #6 on: July 07, 2018, 09:42:25 AM »

Most of the West swung Republican.

No it didn't. Only five states switched from 1992. 

Do you know what a swing is?
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Alabama_Indy10
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« Reply #7 on: July 07, 2018, 12:31:58 PM »

Most of the West swung Republican.

No it didn't. Only five states switched from 1992. 

Do you know what a swing is?
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #8 on: July 07, 2018, 08:15:42 PM »
« Edited: July 07, 2018, 08:21:40 PM by 136or142 »

Most of the West swung Republican.

No it didn't. Only five states switched from 1992.  

Do you know what a swing is?

Well, this is Dave Leip's Atlas Forum, why don't we take a look.

I'll leave out Alaska and Hawaii.  Also, I assume you are referring to the Presidential vote

Arizona
1992
D: 36.5%
R: 38.5%

1996
D: 46.5%
R:44.3%

D: +4.2%  (I don't think that's how most here calculate swings, but it's the simplest approach.)

California
1992
D: 46.0%
R:32.6%

1996
D:51.1%
R:38.2%

R +0.5%

Colorado
1992
D:40.1%
R:35.9%

1996
D:44.4%
R:45.8%

R +5.6%

Idaho
1992
D:28.4%
R:42.0%

1996
D:33.7%
R:52.0%

R +5.1%

Montana
1992
D:37.6%
R:35.1%

1996
D:41.2%
R:44.1%

R +5.4%

Nevada
1992
D:37.4%
R:34.7%

1996
D:43.9%
R:42.9%

R +1.7%

New Mexico
1992
D:45.9%
R:37.3%

1996
D:49.2%
R:41.9%

R +1.3%

Oregon
1992
D:42.5%
R:32.5%

1996
D:47.2%
R:39.1%

R + 1.9%

Utah
1992
D:27.3%
R:43.4%

1996
D:33.3%
R:54.4%

R +5.0%

Washington
1992
D:43.4%
R:32.0%

1996
D:49.8%
R:37.3%

D +1.1%

Wyoming
1992
R: 39.6%
D:34.0%

1996
R:49.8%
D:36.8%

R +7.4%

If you want to include other states: Texas, Oklahoma maybe, I'd call them Central Southern states or Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota, I'd call them Midwestern Prairie States, or Alaska and Hawaii you can look them up yourself.

So, for the 11 states here we have 5 states with an R swing of 5% or greater, 4 states with an R swing of between 0-2% and 2 states with a D swing of 1.1% and 4.2%.  Taking into account that the states with the largest Republican swing are the smallest states by population with the exception of Colorado (you can not take that into account if you like) I'd say there was an overall swing to the Republicans of about 2-3%

So, I'd rate your claim as half true.  There was a small swing to the Republicans, but I don't think it fully explains by any means the larger swing in Colorado. (If that was your intent.)
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TDAS04
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« Reply #9 on: July 09, 2018, 05:45:32 PM »

I didn’t say it was the only reason Colorado flipped, I just noted that Colorado generally followed the regional patterns.
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twenty42
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« Reply #10 on: July 11, 2018, 04:20:27 AM »

Don’t forget that Clinton basically stopped his campaign by the beginning of October while Dole put his campaign on overdrive until the very last minute. By the end Dems were much more concerned with the congressional races than with padding Clinton’s landslide, which allowed Dole to flip CO/GA/MT and resulted in several small, ultimately pointless GOP swings in other states.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #11 on: July 11, 2018, 09:04:36 AM »

Of the 19 Dole states, Colorado is the only one that would have flipped to Clinton had Nader voters voted Clinton.

(Dole beat Clinton by 1.37% and Nader got 1.66% in CO).
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #12 on: August 01, 2018, 01:30:56 AM »

Wasn't Colorado a more Republican-than-the-average state in presidential elections anyway? Why would this have been a surprise?
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #13 on: August 01, 2018, 01:33:55 AM »

Wasn't Colorado a more Republican-than-the-average state in presidential elections anyway? Why would this have been a surprise?

Because Ari- "Didn't even vote for Johnson"- zona was even more Republican than Colorado maybe?
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twenty42
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« Reply #14 on: August 01, 2018, 11:49:27 AM »

Wasn't Colorado a more Republican-than-the-average state in presidential elections anyway? Why would this have been a surprise?

Because Ari- "Didn't even vote for Johnson"- zona was even more Republican than Colorado maybe?

I think GHWB was more of a bad fit for CO than anything. It was R+9 in 1980 and R+11 in 1984 before going +/-0 in 1988 and R+1.5 in 1992. It went R+10 in 1996, which more or less aligned with its 1968-1984 behavior.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #15 on: August 01, 2018, 12:07:15 PM »

Wasn't Colorado a more Republican-than-the-average state in presidential elections anyway? Why would this have been a surprise?

Because Ari- "Didn't even vote for Johnson"- zona was even more Republican than Colorado maybe?

I think GHWB was more of a bad fit for CO than anything. It was R+9 in 1980 and R+11 in 1984 before going +/-0 in 1988 and R+1.5 in 1992. It went R+10 in 1996, which more or less aligned with its 1968-1984 behavior.
I wonder if lingering western hostility to "the eastern establishment" hurt HW in CO.
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