Civiqs: Cruz +2

[Doimper]

https://twitter.com/markos/status/1016387133920034817

Some crosstabs in the replies. Anyone who thinks that this race isn't competitive deserves to be laughed at.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wow, O’rourke winning 70% of the Hispanic vote.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I think they have their sample messed up, looking deeper into the demographics. 18-34 is +15 Beto, 34-49 is +2 Beto, 49-65 is +8 Cruz, 65+ is +15 Cruz. Given that 65+ vote much more than 18-34, that should suggest around a Cruz + 5 or Cruz + 6 or so race.

Perhaps they are overpolling young hispanics? 70-25 Beto is a pretty unusual number given that even Trump got 33% of hispanics.

Civiqs is a pretty interesting pollster, though. Does anyone subscribe to civiqs? They have some polling questions questions on their site for nonsubscribers, but the specific race polling is only for subscribers.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think this race is somewhere between this and the Gravis poll. If there was an election today, I think Cruz would win 52-46.

[DrScholl]

Family separations could drive the Hispanic vote a lot more Democratic. Something is happening with this race and I say that because Cruz made it a point to condemn the Nazi running in IL-3 when no other Republican has really done so.

[KingSweden]

Hmm. I’m a bit skeptical it’s that close.

[Doimper]

Family separations could drive the Hispanic vote a lot more Democratic. Something is happening with this race and I say that because Cruz made it a point to condemn the Nazi running in IL-3 when no other Republican has really done so.

Not to mention his panicky reversal on family separations.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Cruz is favored to win reelection, but I will say this, it wouldn't totally blow me to the far end of Mars if Beto won by a point. The heavy campaigning has not even started yet, and Beto is in good condition for it, Strong Lean R as of now.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Very interesting

[Canis]

huge sample size (is that good or bad?)

[Zaybay]

Cruz is favored to win reelection, but I will say this, it wouldn't totally blow me to the far end of Mars if Beto won by a point. The heavy campaigning has not even started yet, and Beto is in good condition for it, Strong Lean R as of now.

[IceSpear]

I think this race is somewhere between this and the Gravis poll. If there was an election today, I think Cruz would win 52-46.

No, no. Cruz won by 16 points before he was controversial against a some dude with no money, therefore he is guaranteed at least a 20 point win against O'Rourke.

[Zaybay]

This is both believable, and unbelievable. The cross tabs are pretty good, except for an over polling of millenials, but they could turnout at a higher rate this year. Hispanics moving to 70-30 is believable, though this would suggest a lot of movement. Overall, too favorable to Beto, but not as bad as the Gravis one.

Then again, I think people here forget that the main campaigns have not started up yet, in any of the elections. People saying Cruz will win by double digits when the most favorable polling for ruling party in the election cycle, the summer before the election, has the race at Cruz+7. Cruz is likely to go down from here, not up, especially since Beto has the funds to do so. So far, I would say this race ends at a 53-47 win for Cruz, but it could easily go into Beto territory.

[MAINEiac4434]

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I don't think this is complete fantasy, maybe a bit too dem friendly, but other polls today have showed us well within striking distance for a couple other statewide offices.

[UWS]

Well, I guess that this race is going to move from Lean R to Toss-up. Time has come for the Democrats to focus more on Texas.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Also what I am seeing on the ground, I see few Cruz signs and even in lean republican precincts are peppered with Beto signs. I have also seen several lawns with Beto or Allred signs and then they have signs for local Republicans for judge and state house and etc. My sis has also seen a F-250 with both a come and take it flag and a Beto sticker. While a little too friendly, I still think this is within the realm of sanity giving the current environment.

[ON Progressive]

[YE]

Pending crosstabs and based on other polls, I think this is a junk poll. Yes, junk polls can favor Democrats as well.

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, at this point I think Democrats will make up for a loss in NV by winning TX imo.

[Zaybay]

Pending crosstabs and based on other polls, I think this is a junk poll. Yes, junk polls can favor Democrats as well.

We have crosstabs, its in the Civiqs twitter.

[Skye]

What's the methodology for this? It looks like a trend line, not an isolated poll.

[Bidenworth2020]

interesting cruz gets 14% of blacks. can anyone explain (call me crazy, but I don't think Candace is doing it)

[SCNCmod]

I don't think this is complete fantasy, maybe a bit too dem friendly

I have definitely thought that a perfect storm Dem candidate could eek out a win over Cruz. 

However, I was probably incorrectly worried that Beto would not be that candidate (I thought Rep Castro had better shot)... But it appears Beto may indeed be that perfect storm- Young, Charismatic, Tireless Campaigner, Believable/ Relatable, Able to build a groundswell of support, etc.

If you look at the trends in TX over past 6 years, non-hispanic whites have been quickly moving toward a minority (texas will soon be a minority majority state).  And Beto is probably going to be able to get a much larger % of youth vote & minorities vs Cruz (than Hillary vs Trump).

If a ground swell is indeed building for Beto... especially among Under-40s... there could be enough energy and turn-out (among typically lower turnout voters... youth vote & latinos)... to push Beto to a narrow win.

[Person Man]

Big if true.