Civiqs: Cruz +2

[BBD]

Just wait till the campaign really starts getting heated and Beto's mugshot gets spammed on the airwaves. If Beto didn't have his criminal conviction hanging overhead, I think he'd pull off a very narrow win. Of course, this is the age of Donald Trump, so who knows anymore...

[SCNCmod]

Yeah, at this point I think Democrats will make up for a loss in NV by winning TX imo.

Although I do think Beto could pull magic out of a hat in Texas.... Why do you think Dems will lose in NV?

I think a situation that could happen is Dems pull a Surprise in Texas & Tenn ... then win NV/AZ/FL/Missouri ....  Leaving Dems needing to win 1 of the Supreme-Court-Senate-States (IN-WV-ND)  ------> Of which Dems win WV & lose IN & ND.

[Suburbia]

interesting cruz gets 14% of blacks. can anyone explain (call me crazy, but I don't think Candace is doing it)

They are lots of black conservatives in Texas.....lots of Latino conservatives in Texas as well......
They are not all on the Democratic Party's constituency.

[Zaybay]

Just wait till the campaign really starts getting heated and Beto's mugshot gets spammed on the airwaves. If Beto didn't have his criminal conviction hanging overhead, I think he'd pull off a very narrow win. Of course, this is the age of Donald Trump, so who knows anymore...

If thats all Cruz can throw at him, then he is screwed. Going negative has not worked for Cruz at all(remember the "fake name" thing?), and Beto's problem currently is name recognition. And its not like Beto is a sitting duck either, he has as much funding as Cruz, and can go toe to toe with him. I dont believe he will win in the end, losing by a close margin of around 52-48, but I would not be surprised if polling close to election day would show this race as a tossup.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Big if true.

[here2view]

Something is happening with this race and I say that because Cruz made it a point to condemn the Nazi running in IL-3 when no other Republican has really done so.

This is a very good and interesting point.

Beto needs to be doing better than +2 with Independents though.

[SCNCmod]

Just wait till the campaign really starts getting heated and Beto's mugshot gets spammed on the airwaves. If Beto didn't have his criminal conviction hanging overhead, I think he'd pull off a very narrow win. Of course, this is the age of Donald Trump, so who knows anymore...

This is why I thought Castro may've been the better candidate... But all of this appears to be a miscalculation on my part...(Also Beto has been smart & maybe lucky, that he is building the groundswell early in the campaign... before Cruz can try to define him via ads).

1. Beto will be popular enough by that point that any non-conviction-arrest centering around an adolescent DUI & Break-in-of-a-neighbor type incident will seem petty.

2. Bush is popular in TX- and dealt with an early 20s DUI type issue... so TX is likely conditioned not to care.

3.  Could even make Beto seem more relatable-or-screw-washington-type-candidate ... when contrasted to Cruz (who is naturally somewhat of an unlikable persona).  

[Zaybay]

Looking at the Civiqs poll and Gravis, Ive started to notice terrible problems in this Gravis's methodology(what else is new).

Looking at how things are broken down by race

Gravis:D/R
Whites-40/54
AA- 66/33
Latinos-31/59
Asians-63/36

Civiqs: D/R
Whites-29/65
AA-78/14
Latinos-70/25
Asians not shown

The fact that Gravis shows Latinos as lean R, African Americans as a 2/3s group, and Whites as almost even makes me lose hope that this poll really is good.
Civiqs however has pretty believable demographic numbers, though I wish that they showed Asians.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Where's the Governor Poll?

[AtorBoltox]

Not surprising. This race was always going to be competitive

[OneJ]

Looking at the Civiqs poll and Gravis, Ive started to notice terrible problems in this Gravis's methodology(what else is new).

Looking at how things are broken down by race

Gravis:D/R
Whites-40/54
AA- 66/33
Latinos-31/59
Asians-63/36

Civiqs: D/R
Whites-29/65
AA-78/14
Latinos-70/25
Asians not shown

The fact that Gravis shows Latinos as lean R, African Americans as a 2/3s group, and Whites as almost even makes me lose hope that this poll really is good.
Civiqs however has pretty believable demographic numbers, though I wish that they showed Asians.

The # if Blacks Cruz is getting in the Civiqs poll isn't too surprising to me given that exit polls suggest that 11% of them voted for Trump in 2016 and in 2014 Abbot only got 7% of the Black vote.

What's so weird about Gravis is that O'Rourke has an unusually high amount of support among whites. Civiq's white support for O'Rourke looks a lot more believeable as Davis got a quarter of the White vote. HRC also only got 26%.

The Asian vote in Gravis' poll skews very heavily towards Cruz as well. There were no data on Asian voters in 2014 in TX, but in 2016 they voted for Clinton 72-26. But to be fair, the Asian vote in general is pretty swingy anyway.

I'm skeptical on what Civiq came up with in regards to the Latino vote, but you better believe that their result will be far closer to the actual result than what Gravis got, Lol. Quite a few people here obsess with the Republican/conservative Latinos, but everyone should agree that Cruz of all Republicans in this state is not winning them.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Beto is not getting 70% of hispanics and Cruz won't be getting 14% of blacks, tame the numbers a bit and it should even out.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

This assumes the Dubya coalition is faltering. Not gonna happen, folks. Cruz is getting 40% of Latinos at least. Move on.

[Zaybay]

This assumes the Dubya coalition is faltering. Not gonna happen, folks. Cruz is getting 40% of Latinos at least. Move on.

why do you exist?

[Pollster]

huge sample size (is that good or bad?)

If the sample is representative of the electorate, then it's terrific.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Cruz has been getting more and more desperate, as he should be. I think this is probably decently accurate for the race rn.

[Adam Griffin]

I'm feeling a bit bipolar on that 70/30 number among Latinos, but:

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But...the other thing bothering me is the education breakdown: should it be this close in a state like TX if Cruz is winning college educated voters by around 15 points?

[kyc0705]

Just wait till the campaign really starts getting heated and Beto's mugshot gets spammed on the airwaves. If Beto didn't have his criminal conviction hanging overhead, I think he'd pull off a very narrow win. Of course, this is the age of Donald Trump, so who knows anymore...

The Zodiac Killer may have killed up to 37 people, so unless Beto has secretly murdered at least 38 people, he's still more likable than Ted Cruz.

[Zaybay]

I'm feeling a bit bipolar on that 70/30 number among Latinos, but:

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But...the other thing bothering me is the education breakdown: should it be this close in a state like TX if Cruz is winning college educated voters by around 15 points?

While many have pointed out how Dems are gaining in college educated voters, and how they turn up in midterms, that doesnt mean they are in the majority. Only around 39% of the US has one, and the percentage in TX is around 27%. Its also important to note that in this poll, Dems are losing whites, and whites constitute most of those degrees. The Dem base in the state are Latinos and Blacks, who have a lower higher education rate.

Also, this is just my opinion, but I believe this poll is closer to the current state of the election than most others. The crosstabs check out, and it shows Dem movement in the correct groups, whites with college degrees. The Gravis poll is just bad, looking at the crosstabs, especially since Rs are winning Latinos in that poll by a 60/40 margin.

This would also explain much of the actions Cruz has taken this year. He has been treating Beto extremely seriously, attacking him early, and Cruz has asked for help from donors. This is not the act of someone confident in his victory. He also was the only R asking voters to vote for Lipinski over the nazi. Why? Not even moderates had done this. Its because he can use this, it makes him look like someone willing to cross the line of partisanship. Its fuel for his campaign.

Those of us who are thinking this race is likely R, or going into the double digits has clearly been smoking that "Ds can never win TX" propaganda. Many of the polls that are great quality or have crosstabs that make sense have this race as either close or with a high amount of undecideds. Polls that dont(Gravis) have terrible crosstabs and dont align with what we know about TX. And whats important to note is that in most states, The campaigning hasnt started yet!. Bredesen is not going to win by 10 and Heller is likely not going to lose in a close election. Beto and Cruz have barely spent any money on ads, and even then, its pretty even in terms of funding. In August and early fall, we will see shifts(mostly to the Ds) due to campaigning, and the other factors we know will occur(raising health care prices, tariffs causing some economic pain). This race is not decided, Cruz has the advantage, but who knows if he will keep it.

[Virginiá]

This would also explain much of the actions Cruz has taken this year. He has been treating Beto extremely seriously, attacking him early, and Cruz has asked for help from donors. This is not the act of someone confident in his victory. He also was the only R asking voters to vote for Lipinski over the nazi. Why? Not even moderates had done this. Its because he can use this, it makes him look like someone willing to cross the line of partisanship. Its fuel for his campaign.

It's amazing what a competitive race can do for a person like Cruz. Very humbling.

Those of us who are thinking this race is likely R, or going into the double digits has clearly been smoking that "Ds can never win TX" propaganda.

It's really hard for me to fault anyone for being cautious about any statewide race in Texas. I'm still not sure what to think of it (and will probably just hold my thoughts), but what I do know is that just because Democrats have had a record drought in statewide TX races does not mean said drought continues forever. I really would not be surprised if Republican presidential candidates never win Texas again by double digits for the next 20-30 years, or indefinitely, particularly given the demographic trajectory of the state. I'd even wager a bet that the foundation for Republican electoral success in Texas has been weakening for some time now, and all it took was Obama to leave office and an unpopular Republican to replace him to take the boot off Democrats' neck. It's like WWCs. These trends didn't just pop into existence out of nowhere. They've been ongoing for a long time, and it just took a particular set of events to make them obvious to everyone.

[Skye]

Those of us who are thinking this race is likely R, or going into the double digits has clearly been smoking that "Ds can never win TX" propaganda.

Maybe because no Democrat has gotten more than 44% in the state since Ann Richards lost more than 2 decades ago?

Not saying that Dems can never win in TX, or that it's impossible for O'Rourke to win this race; but you clearly can't fault people for being cautious about this election since quality polling hasn't shown a closer race.

Plus, it's not some "wacky Atlas users that have been smoking weird stuff" thing. Sabato and Cook also rate the race as Likely R.

[Tintrlvr]

interesting cruz gets 14% of blacks. can anyone explain (call me crazy, but I don't think Candace is doing it)

Republicans always do better with black voters in polls than in reality. Not sure exactly why.

[ON Progressive]

interesting cruz gets 14% of blacks. can anyone explain (call me crazy, but I don't think Candace is doing it)

Republicans always do better with black voters in polls than in reality. Not sure exactly why.

It's because some people (mainly whites) misclick on their phone. So for example, the pollster might say "press 1 for white, press 2 for African American/black, press 3 for Hispanic, etc." and they accidentally press 2.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I am afraid that people are getting too optimistic here about Beto's chances based on a new internet poll from a new pollster (Civiqs) which is run by a liberal blog (Daily Kos) with an untested methodology.

Yet again, Charlie Brown doesn't realize that the football is going to be taken away? Will Charlie ever learn? Apparently not.

There are ALWAYS a few early polls showing Texas deceptively close. These polls are ALWAYS wrong. Why are they wrong? Because Texas is a hard state to poll due to very low turnout and an electorate that is very different from the overall population, and these polls are not polling the actual electorate.

There is a very simple point that you need to understand in order to understand elections in Texas. TEXAS HISPANICS DO NOT VOTE. PERIOD. NEVER HAVE, NEVER WILL (at least not for a few decades until they get older, citizenship rates go up, they actually register to vote, and a culture of actually voting develops). Texas Democrats (particularly Hispanics) vote like horses that are led to water drink. You can lead them to the polling place, you can show TV ads to them, you can knock on their door, your can call them on the phone, you can send them mail, but you can't make them vote.



2002 Senate

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2008 President

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"Obama is even competitive in North Dakota and Alaska, where he has campaign offices. Although he is not competing in Texas, he probably will in 2012, and it is only a matter of time before demographics turn Texas blue."



2010 Governor

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"Rick Perry is hugely unpopular, the energy of the 2008 Democratic primary finally activated Texas Democrats, and although Obama did lose, he swung Texas bigly and muh Obama coalition emerging Democratic majority in Austin, Dallas, and Houston. Bill White is a great candidate with strong crossover appeal."



2012 President

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"2010 was a disappointment, but Bill White was running against a Republican midterm tsunami. 2012 will be different, it is not a midterm and the Obama coalition will turn out and vote again. Obama may not win Texas in 2012, but he can come close, build on the progress he made in 2008, and build up Texas Democrats for future competitive races."



2014 Governor

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"After so many years of Republican rule, surely Texas must be getting tired of it. They have to elect a Democrat eventually, surely they can't have one party rule forever. Even states like Wyoming elect a Democratic governor occasionally. Wendy Davis has gotten lots of national support, fundraising, and is a rising Democratic star. And besides, we finally have the national Democratic party investing in Texas, Battleground Texas and Hispanics will turn Texas blue!"



Finally, most recently... I'll even post more than one poll for this one...

2016 President

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"Trump is historically unpopular, a horrible fit for Texas, and suburban Republican women and Hispanics won't vote for a pussy grabber. Could this be the year that Texas goes blue?"

Do you get it yet?



With regards to the Civiqs poll, the crosstabs do look quite plausible. Contrary to what some people incorrectly believe, Texas doesn't have any more Black Republicans than other states, and doesn't really have materially more Hispanic Republicans. While Hispanics do vote slightly more Republican than in some other states, this is not a very large difference. Texas Dems routinely win about 65-75% of the Hispanic vote, and this has been the case for at least the past decade with the earlier exceptions of Bush's mega-landslides, when he did a bit better (but not actually as much better as is sometimes claimed). Exit polls tend to overestimate how Republican Hispanics vote because of poor methodology, which has led to a myth that Texas has lots of Republican Hispanics.

The Civiqs methodology sounds interesting and might (or might not) actually work reasonably well, because they seem to do a quasi-voter file match -

https://civiqs.com/methodology/

It needs to be proven, though.

But while the crosstabs look reasonable, the overall result is likely overstating minority turnout. This supposed 2 point Cruz advantage is not among any sort of "likely voters," as far as I can see, and that being the case, of course it will overstate how well Beto is doing. If the entire population of Texas voted, then Beto would indeed probably do very well. But the entire population of Texas will most definitely not vote, and the people who do vote are not all that much like the overall population.

If Hispanics didn't vote in 2016 against Trump in a Presidential year, why would any sane analyst think that they will vote in 2018 in a midterm year?

Who DOES vote in Texas?

Angry white men. And who do they vote for? Republicans.

So the problem Democrats have is really not so much support levels, it is that nobody (at least nobody that is not a white Republican except for a few elderly black women in Dallas and Houston and a few white liberals in Austin) votes in Texas. In addition, even if minority turnout does increase by realistically plausible amounts, it has a comparatively small effect on the overall result, because Whites vote so heavily Republican.

Ds have made long term minor progress in the Texas suburbs, but at the same time have absolutely cratered in rural areas to the point that Republicans win about 100% of the white rural vote. The "good" news is that it is not possible for Republicans to do better than 100% of the white rural vote, so maybe the marginal D gains in the suburbs will no longer be offset by R rural gains, as they have been for the past decade or two. But the hole is sufficiently large that it will take a while to climb out of.

[Stranger in a strange land]

interesting cruz gets 14% of blacks. can anyone explain (call me crazy, but I don't think Candace is doing it)

They are lots of black conservatives in Texas.....lots of Latino conservatives in Texas as well......
They are not all on the Democratic Party's constituency.

The Black vote is most Democratic in the Deep South and Northern Cities; in the Outer South and the Midwest, it tends to be more 80/20 rather than 90/10 or 95/5.