Civiqs: Cruz +2

[IceSpear]

I think this race is somewhere between this and the Gravis poll. If there was an election today, I think Cruz would win 52-46.

No, no. Cruz won by 16 points before he was controversial against a some dude with no money, therefore he is guaranteed at least a 20 point win against O'Rourke.

[IceSpear]

I am afraid that people are getting too optimistic here about Beto's chances based on a new internet poll from a new pollster (Civiqs) which is run by a liberal blog (Daily Kos) with an untested methodology.

Yet again, Charlie Brown doesn't realize that the football is going to be taken away? Will Charlie ever learn? Apparently not.

There are ALWAYS a few early polls showing Texas deceptively close. These polls are ALWAYS wrong. Why are they wrong? Because Texas is a hard state to poll due to very low turnout and an electorate that is very different from the overall population, and these polls are not polling the actual electorate.

There is a very simple point that you need to understand in order to understand elections in Texas. TEXAS HISPANICS DO NOT VOTE. PERIOD. NEVER HAVE, NEVER WILL (at least not for a few decades until they get older, citizenship rates go up, they actually register to vote, and a culture of actually voting develops). Texas Democrats (particularly Hispanics) vote like horses that are led to water drink. You can lead them to the polling place, you can show TV ads to them, you can knock on their door, your can call them on the phone, you can send them mail, but you can't make them vote.



2002 Senate

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2008 President

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"Obama is even competitive in North Dakota and Alaska, where he has campaign offices. Although he is not competing in Texas, he probably will in 2012, and it is only a matter of time before demographics turn Texas blue."



2010 Governor

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"Rick Perry is hugely unpopular, the energy of the 2008 Democratic primary finally activated Texas Democrats, and although Obama did lose, he swung Texas bigly and muh Obama coalition emerging Democratic majority in Austin, Dallas, and Houston. Bill White is a great candidate with strong crossover appeal."



2012 President

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"2010 was a disappointment, but Bill White was running against a Republican midterm tsunami. 2012 will be different, it is not a midterm and the Obama coalition will turn out and vote again. Obama may not win Texas in 2012, but he can come close, build on the progress he made in 2008, and build up Texas Democrats for future competitive races."



2014 Governor

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"After so many years of Republican rule, surely Texas must be getting tired of it. They have to elect a Democrat eventually, surely they can't have one party rule forever. Even states like Wyoming elect a Democratic governor occasionally. Wendy Davis has gotten lots of national support, fundraising, and is a rising Democratic star. And besides, we finally have the national Democratic party investing in Texas, Battleground Texas and Hispanics will turn Texas blue!"



Finally, most recently... I'll even post more than one poll for this one...

2016 President

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"Trump is historically unpopular, a horrible fit for Texas, and suburban Republican women and Hispanics won't vote for a pussy grabber. Could this be the year that Texas goes blue?"

Do you get it yet?



With regards to the Civiqs poll, the crosstabs do look quite plausible. Contrary to what some people incorrectly believe, Texas doesn't have any more Black Republicans than other states, and doesn't really have materially more Hispanic Republicans. While Hispanics do vote slightly more Republican than in some other states, this is not a very large difference. Texas Dems routinely win about 65-75% of the Hispanic vote, and this has been the case for at least the past decade with the earlier exceptions of Bush's mega-landslides, when he did a bit better (but not actually as much better as is sometimes claimed). Exit polls tend to overestimate how Republican Hispanics vote because of poor methodology, which has led to a myth that Texas has lots of Republican Hispanics.

The Civiqs methodology sounds interesting and might (or might not) actually work reasonably well, because they seem to do a quasi-voter file match -

https://civiqs.com/methodology/

It needs to be proven, though.

But while the crosstabs look reasonable, the overall result is likely overstating minority turnout. This supposed 2 point Cruz advantage is not among any sort of "likely voters," as far as I can see, and that being the case, of course it will overstate how well Beto is doing. If the entire population of Texas voted, then Beto would indeed probably do very well. But the entire population of Texas will most definitely not vote, and the people who do vote are not all that much like the overall population.

If Hispanics didn't vote in 2016 against Trump in a Presidential year, why would any sane analyst think that they will vote in 2018 in a midterm year?

Who DOES vote in Texas?

Angry white men. And who do they vote for? Republicans.

So the problem Democrats have is really not so much support levels, it is that nobody (at least nobody that is not a white Republican except for a few elderly black women in Dallas and Houston and a few white liberals in Austin) votes in Texas. In addition, even if minority turnout does increase by realistically plausible amounts, it has a comparatively small effect on the overall result, because Whites vote so heavily Republican.

Ds have made long term minor progress in the Texas suburbs, but at the same time have absolutely cratered in rural areas to the point that Republicans win about 100% of the white rural vote. The "good" news is that it is not possible for Republicans to do better than 100% of the white rural vote, so maybe the marginal D gains in the suburbs will no longer be offset by R rural gains, as they have been for the past decade or two. But the hole is sufficiently large that it will take a while to climb out of.

This is a good post.