Civiqs: Cruz +2

[UWS]

Well, I guess that this race is going to move from Lean R to Toss-up. Time has come for the Democrats to focus more on Texas.

[UWS]

The Black vote is most Democratic in the Deep South and Northern Cities; in the Outer South and the Midwest, it tends to be more 80/20 rather than 90/10 or 95/5.

What actual evidence is there that the black vote is 80/20 or so in the Outer South/Midwest?

If that's the case, the Jefferson County (the location of the city of Beaumont, the 24th largest city in Texas) is surely going to flip blue.

If Cruz is now leading by only 2 percentage points, I guess that O'Rourke will need to also increase his showing among white voters if he wants to win.

[UWS]

The Black vote is most Democratic in the Deep South and Northern Cities; in the Outer South and the Midwest, it tends to be more 80/20 rather than 90/10 or 95/5.

What actual evidence is there that the black vote is 80/20 or so in the Outer South/Midwest?

If that's the case, the Jefferson County (the location of the city of Beaumont, the 24th largest city in Texas) is surely going to flip blue.

If Cruz is now leading by only 2 percentage points, I guess that O'Rourke will need to also increase his showing among white voters if he wants to win.

And by the way, if Cruz is leading among postgraduates by 10 and since postgraduates have this tendency to vote to the left of college graduates and some college voters, for example, I think a O'Rourke victory also requires winning the post-graduate vote and he has enough time for this. After all, Trump won Texas' postgraduate vote by only one percentage point while Clinton won 58 % of the national postgraduate vote over Trump's 37 %.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/texas/president

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/national/president