Civiqs: Cruz +2

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I don't think this is complete fantasy, maybe a bit too dem friendly

I have definitely thought that a perfect storm Dem candidate could eek out a win over Cruz. 

However, I was probably incorrectly worried that Beto would not be that candidate (I thought Rep Castro had better shot)... But it appears Beto may indeed be that perfect storm- Young, Charismatic, Tireless Campaigner, Believable/ Relatable, Able to build a groundswell of support, etc.

If you look at the trends in TX over past 6 years, non-hispanic whites have been quickly moving toward a minority (texas will soon be a minority majority state).  And Beto is probably going to be able to get a much larger % of youth vote & minorities vs Cruz (than Hillary vs Trump).

If a ground swell is indeed building for Beto... especially among Under-40s... there could be enough energy and turn-out (among typically lower turnout voters... youth vote & latinos)... to push Beto to a narrow win.

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Yeah, at this point I think Democrats will make up for a loss in NV by winning TX imo.

Although I do think Beto could pull magic out of a hat in Texas.... Why do you think Dems will lose in NV?

I think a situation that could happen is Dems pull a Surprise in Texas & Tenn ... then win NV/AZ/FL/Missouri ....  Leaving Dems needing to win 1 of the Supreme-Court-Senate-States (IN-WV-ND)  ------> Of which Dems win WV & lose IN & ND.

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Just wait till the campaign really starts getting heated and Beto's mugshot gets spammed on the airwaves. If Beto didn't have his criminal conviction hanging overhead, I think he'd pull off a very narrow win. Of course, this is the age of Donald Trump, so who knows anymore...

This is why I thought Castro may've been the better candidate... But all of this appears to be a miscalculation on my part...(Also Beto has been smart & maybe lucky, that he is building the groundswell early in the campaign... before Cruz can try to define him via ads).

1. Beto will be popular enough by that point that any non-conviction-arrest centering around an adolescent DUI & Break-in-of-a-neighbor type incident will seem petty.

2. Bush is popular in TX- and dealt with an early 20s DUI type issue... so TX is likely conditioned not to care.

3.  Could even make Beto seem more relatable-or-screw-washington-type-candidate ... when contrasted to Cruz (who is naturally somewhat of an unlikable persona).  

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Does anyone have a graph of Texas changing Demographics... to include predicted future demographics  (% of voting age ...non-hispanic whites)?

I think the increase in voting age minorities in Texas is increasing at a somewhat parabolic rate (so  simply extending graph lines of past numbers would be an inaccurate indication of future numbers).