I believe your missing something in all of those election polls you posted.
1. Besides 2008, all occurred in either R wave years, or neutral years. And TX 2008 is a different state than TX 2018, just look at the Rust Belt, AZ, GA.
2. In every poll, the Democrats have gotten the amount the polls said they would. The reason why they always fall is that undecideds have gone for the R each time.
I also think you are missing where most of the D vote gains have been coming from. Similar to CO, its the growing metropolitan areas of Houston, Dallas, FT.Worth, Austin, San Antonio. The suburbs have also been slightly converting over in TX. Its a GA situation, I guess you could call it.
TX minorities have also been voting in larger numbers over the years, its just that the oldest generation, which was D heavy, was dying off. Now, The greatest is gone, and so is the older silent, and now its Baby Boomers who are getting too old. This is where a shift occurs in demographics. Contrary to popular belief, AAs have pretty great turnout in the south, its just that you cant see that because the DixieCrats keep dying off, and are replaced by R baby boomers. Hispanics have a below average turnout rate, but that can be easily motivated to vote.
I would also like to point out that the idea that Rs can carry the state just by going off of the rurals and white vote is extremely hard. The rural areas, while plentiful in TX, have no one in them. Contrary to popular belief, most of the margins in TX come from the suburbs, not the rurals. If you were to look at the counties and how they voted in 2012, 2010, 2008, or even 2006, you would see that many city counties are rather evenly split or R. Tarrent County was still R in 2016. Think of it like CA in the 1990s, the suburbs rule the state, and the cities dont have enough of a D leaning to move it the opposite direction. The problem with this strategy is that the cities are rappidly bluing, and causing major movement in the state. Here are the presidential numbers of TX from 2000 to 2016(rounded to the thousand)
2000
D-2,434,000
R-3,800,000
2004
D-2,833,000(+399,000)
R-4,527,000(+727,000)
2008(D WAVE)
D-3,529,000(+696,000)
R-4,479,000(-48,000)
2012
D-3,308,000(-221,000)
R-4,570,000(+91,000)
2016
D-3,878,000(+570,000)
R-4,685,000(+115,000)
As you can see, the R numbers have actually been stagnant for a while, and its been the Ds who have seen voter fluctuation and gains. Its also important to note that 2016 was a poor year for D turnout, and so these numbers could be have been larger with a better candidate.
I am not saying Beto is going to win by 10%, what I am saying is that he has a chance, and that TX will not always be an R state.
Since we're talking about Texas we could be here all night long... all week long.... all month long.... all year long.... (Hey--- blatant rip off from Gary Nunn one of my favorite Texas Musical Artists).
Although I am not a Native Texan by background , the first thing I did when I moved to Texas, was grab a copy of Texas Monthly from our local HEB, and then a magazine subscription for the Four Years living in Texas.
Texas Monthly in Feb 2013 devoted virtually an entire edition to the subject of the rural/urban transformation of the state...
https://www.texasmonthly.com/issue/february-2013/#columnsThere are so many insightful articles in this edition that might be relevant to the conversation, as well as in many others of their Monthly Magazine.
Here's one for example about Metro Areas circa 2013:
https://www.texasmonthly.com/articles/a-tale-of-six-cities/Diatribe aside, I bolded a few relevant points that you made regarding the shifting demographic patterns of one of the fastest growing states in the US in terms of total population (Although not necessarily overall pop % increase compared to others).
1.) Your comments regarding the changing political voting patterns of the largest Cities in Texas and where the massive increase in "New" Democratic voters are based is absolutely spot on IMHO....
2.) You did reference
the suburbs of the Metro Areas, and although we observed some of the largest Dem swings between '12 > '16 in Metro DFW, Houston, SA, Austin in heavily Anglo Upper-Middle-Class precincts and suburbs compared to many other regions in the US, it is still questionable to what extent this is a temporary reaction against the "Trump Brand" of Republicanism or something that might be sustainable and develop further post 2020, let alone how this will play in Statewide Elections.
3.)
The concept that Texas Republicans can win solely upon the overwhelmingly support among rural Whites and suburban voters that you posited, is a powerful and valid argument, that has yet to be tested in recent years for a Democratic Statewide Candidate, but still we have not seen that result yet manifest, but
when it happens it will likely create a seismic reaction among Republican Candidates in both Statewide and National Elections.
4.) Minorities in Texas and Voting / Demographics....This one is an issue where I would not expect to see significant increase in raw Democratic Margins among Latino voters in 2016, despite a likely significant increase in Latino over support for Beto over Cruz in overall percentages....
Problem for the Dems in Texas that in Non-Presidential Election Years, the Latino population that tends to be most overwhelmingly Democrat (Working-Class Latinos/Tejanos) tends to break about 80-20 D, while Middle and Upper Middle Class Latinos/Tejanos were part of the major reason why George W. Bush performed so well in Texas in '04....
One could certainly argue that Trump's attempt to divide predominately Central American Latinos from more established Mexican-American Latinos in the larger Metro Areas might have an impact on these margins....
There is a real division within Texas between these communities, especially when it comes to hiring decisions and employee referrals as part of informal social-networks, where in many economic sectors heavily Latino work-forces such as construction, transportation, hospitality, and retail.
Needless to say, I would not be surprised to see a significant increase in the Latino Vote Share in Texas '18, especially among younger Latino voters,
the least likely to vote in Non-Pres Years....
5.)
Jury is still out to what extent Obama's reputation as the "Deporter in Chief" among many Texas Latinos (As well as elsewhere in Latino/Latina/LatinX America) chose to sit out the '16 Pres election and vote for a 3rd Party Candidate....
Sorry.... I might be a "bleeding heart" but when my Wife came back from work in Houston and told me her best friend at work's husband had been deported to Mexico, even though they have two kids together, simply because they got in a argument, he went to a bar, had to much to drink, got his first DUI ever in 15 years in America without hurting anyone, and she called in a police report because he was missing.... disappeared gone overnight, deported South of the Border....
These are common day true stories in many heavily Latino Communities en El Norte....
Why should working-class Latinos, including my Wife's Co-Worker in Houston vote for HRC, who was seen by many as a continuation of the Obama's Administration's Policy of "Deporting Criminal Aliens"....
6.) Now one of the more interesting developments we have seen in Texas is the
massive swing among Asian-American voters in relatively recent years....Can't recall what thread I posted it in, but I pulled a few numbers from some of the most heavily Asian-American precincts around Houston, believing Sugar Land was on the radar (Any of Y'all ever been out to the "Ranch Market"...
If your in Houston Metro should def check it out, one of the best Asian-American Massive Supermarkets in the US)....
Metro H-Town Esp has a high % of Vietnamese-Americans compared to most Metro Areas in the US for historical reasons.... We DID see major swings in '16 in heavily Vietnamese-American communities in OC as discussed on multiple threads....
South Asian Populations are also significant in Texas, but unfortunately we don't have many real concentrations to be able to drill down a bit more to a precinct or municipal level to isolate the swings among these communities....
Honestly any of you young folks out there or those working on Poly-Sci degrees, this could potentially be Final Paper for your Bachelors or Masters Degree drilling deep down into the weeds.
7.) Hate to say what pretty much all of us already know....
polls of Texas tend to be extremely crap, wild, and variable, because of the extremely complex nature and population size of the Lone Star Sate....
This poll is probably a bit crap, just like the last poll, and the one before that.... etc....
8.) We have at least some stuff to talk about before we will likely get more polls Post Labor-Day, and although
it's pretty clear Cruz has an upper-hand, there are a lot of variables and data points in a complex and difficult to poll State.
9.)
Cruz is extremely well known and fairly unpopular....He bucked Trump and then signed the Loyalty Pledge....
Now he tries to walk both sides of the Fence, but for many he looks increasingly like the Snake Oil Salesman stereotype that Trump tried to use against him, rather than a traditional Texan who will stand tall, walk with big boots, speak your mind, and stand up against a bully.
Thus far, Ted Cruz has yet to prove himself on this point, unlike Greg Abbott.
