SurveyMonkey senate poll (FL, IN, ND, NV, AZ, TN, WV, MT, and more): R+1
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  SurveyMonkey senate poll (FL, IN, ND, NV, AZ, TN, WV, MT, and more): R+1		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: SurveyMonkey senate poll (FL, IN, ND, NV, AZ, TN, WV, MT, and more): R+1  (Read 4662 times)
Hindsight was 2020
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« on: July 10, 2018, 08:46:56 AM »
« edited: July 10, 2018, 12:23:36 PM by Brittain33 »
So SurveyMonkey did a poll of senate matchups and found the following:
R’s pick up FL, IN, and ND
D’s pick up NV, AZ
Some noteworthy tidbits
Blackburn beating Bredesen by 14
Machin and Tester winning by double digits
https://www.axios.com/brutal-poll-democrats-2018-midterms-senate-5eb4075f-4325-46aa-bda5-699b814d9dd7.html
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #1 on: July 10, 2018, 08:50:09 AM »
And now for your regularly scheduled reminder that SurveyMonkey missed multiple races by over 20 points in 2016: SurveyMonkey missed multiple races by over 20 points in 2016.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: July 10, 2018, 08:50:35 AM »
Should be noted that these polls were conducted over a 3 week period, which means they are worthless.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #3 on: July 10, 2018, 08:52:03 AM »
FWI I know this is junk. Manchin winning by a bigger margin then Brown?! Blackburn up by 14?
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #4 on: July 10, 2018, 08:56:54 AM »
Quote from: BundouYMB on July 10, 2018, 08:50:09 AM
And now for your regularly scheduled reminder that SurveyMonkey missed multiple races by over 20 points in 2016: SurveyMonkey missed multiple races by over 20 points in 2016.

I can believe that, but I need some receipts for your claims.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5 on: July 10, 2018, 08:59:27 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on July 10, 2018, 08:50:35 AM
Should be noted that these polls were conducted over a 3 week period, which means they are worthless.

That, and multistate polls are meh to begin with
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: July 10, 2018, 09:05:30 AM »
A little better than the polls that were conducted by Gravis, but McCaskill is more vulnerable than Nelson
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #7 on: July 10, 2018, 09:06:07 AM »
Yeah even Nate called bs on this one https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1016683927774384129
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #8 on: July 10, 2018, 09:06:24 AM »
It seems like the undecideds are comically low. There is no way on earth 99% of North Dakota and 96% of Indiana voters are already decided at this point, for example
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #9 on: July 10, 2018, 09:06:51 AM »
Blackburn+14 is the biggest junk poll I have ever seen.

It's a tossup.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #10 on: July 10, 2018, 09:11:37 AM »
Tester +12? Blackburn +14? Cramer +5? Lol, yeah, SurveyMonkey is garbage. Even Gravis can do better than that.
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #11 on: July 10, 2018, 09:12:33 AM »
« Edited: July 10, 2018, 09:17:51 AM by BundouYMB »
Quote from: ON Progressive on July 10, 2018, 08:56:54 AM
Quote from: BundouYMB on July 10, 2018, 08:50:09 AM
And now for your regularly scheduled reminder that SurveyMonkey missed multiple races by over 20 points in 2016: SurveyMonkey missed multiple races by over 20 points in 2016.

I can believe that, but I need some receipts for your claims.

Sorry, it seems I exaggerated a little. Multiple races by over 15 points. Here's some of their greatest hits from 2016:

UT-Gov: 20 point miss.
UT-Sen: 17 point miss.
WV-Gov: 16 point miss.
AR-Sen: 15 point miss.
NH-Gov: 15 point miss.
VT-Gov: 13 point miss.
KY-Sen: 11 point miss.
MO-Sen: 11 point miss.
FL-Sen: 9 point miss.

Sources:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArc1RLTFJqQ3JhTTA/view
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArTFlBMU1iNjU1dmM/view

These polls were all released 1 day before election day.

Man, that's a good pollster right there.
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #12 on: July 10, 2018, 09:15:53 AM »
Although not their biggest miss, having Van Ostern up by 13 points 1 day before he lost is always the miss of theirs that sticks out most in my mind.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #13 on: July 10, 2018, 09:25:58 AM »
As a side note, I really hope we can get a real MT poll from Mason-Dixon or PPP before the election.
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #14 on: July 10, 2018, 09:28:02 AM »
Hello Gravis Jr.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #15 on: July 10, 2018, 09:30:02 AM »
...And yet McCaskill is still leading Hawley
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #16 on: July 10, 2018, 10:08:36 AM »

TBH, I'd put more stock in a Gravis poll than one from SurveyMonkey.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: July 10, 2018, 10:12:44 AM »
Trump approvals are 46/50 in blue states and 51+ in red states, his approvals arent bad in FL or MO
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #18 on: July 10, 2018, 10:13:51 AM »
Tester went from down by 6 to up by 12.... SurveyMonkey is truly something special.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #19 on: July 10, 2018, 10:15:41 AM »
FWIW, I entered all the polls into the database.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #20 on: July 10, 2018, 10:19:27 AM »
Terrible why would you enter them? Well the polls are OK except for MT Tester is leading by less, same with WV, and I have a hard time seeing Bredesen only match Obama 08 levels in TN.
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ltomlinson31
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« Reply #21 on: July 10, 2018, 10:26:25 AM »
Quote from: Redneck Conservative on July 10, 2018, 10:13:51 AM
Tester went from down by 6 to up by 12.... SurveyMonkey is truly something special.

Actually Tester was down by 13% on their last poll (although to Generic R).
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #22 on: July 10, 2018, 10:36:50 AM »
Survey Monkey has one purpose: MAKE US ALL WASTE OUR PRECIOUS TIME.

You know you only have so much time.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #23 on: July 10, 2018, 10:40:37 AM »
Quote from: Arkansas Yankee on July 10, 2018, 10:36:50 AM
Survey Monkey has one purpose: MAKE US ALL WASTE OUR PRECIOUS TIME.

You know you only have so much time.
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Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸
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« Reply #24 on: July 10, 2018, 10:46:23 AM »
538 rates surveymonkey a D-. It's a crap polling company
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