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  AK: Harstad Research: Dunleavy leads by four Walker and Begich tied at 28
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Author Topic: AK: Harstad Research: Dunleavy leads by four Walker and Begich tied at 28  (Read 1392 times)
Canis
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« on: July 10, 2018, 12:59:37 pm »

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/564129f1e4b07ae26518a05c/t/5b43b41d8a922da7a735db24/1531163678634/Harstad+Alaska+Survey+on+Governor%27s+Race.pdf
Dunleavy 32
Walker 28
Begich 28
Undecided 12%
 Dunleavy also leads GOP primary 
Dunleavy 43
Treadwell 17 
Other 3%
Undecided 24%
in head to head match ups Dunleavy trails both candidates by significant margins
Walker 49%
Dunleavy 41%
Undecided 11%

Begich 50%
Dunleavy 41%
Undecided 9%
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1 on: July 10, 2018, 01:20:46 pm »

Democratic polling firm.
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Bagel23
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« Reply #2 on: July 10, 2018, 01:22:49 pm »

Drop out Begich!
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Zaybay
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« Reply #3 on: July 10, 2018, 01:28:02 pm »

Why do you want Begich to drop out? Walker is deeply unpopular, a previous GOPer, and a conservative on most issues. Begich is stronger than Walker, and better. If anyone should drop out, its Walker. He had his chance, and he f*^&ed up. Let the better man win.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #4 on: July 10, 2018, 01:30:43 pm »

Go Begich😀
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #5 on: July 10, 2018, 04:53:54 pm »

Why do you want Begich to drop out? Walker is deeply unpopular, a previous GOPer, and a conservative on most issues. Begich is stronger than Walker, and better. If anyone should drop out, its Walker. He had his chance, and he f*^&ed up. Let the better man win.

Walker is so unpopular that he's easily leading a Republican in a heavily Republican state.
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Wesley Troopner
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« Reply #6 on: July 10, 2018, 05:14:11 pm »

Why do you want Begich to drop out? Walker is deeply unpopular, a previous GOPer, and a conservative on most issues. Begich is stronger than Walker, and better. If anyone should drop out, its Walker. He had his chance, and he f*^&ed up. Let the better man win.

Walker is so unpopular that he's easily leading a Republican in a heavily Republican state.

I mean, so is Begich. I think all that really says is Dunleavy is a surprisingly bad candidate.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #7 on: July 10, 2018, 05:14:56 pm »

Why do you want Begich to drop out? Walker is deeply unpopular, a previous GOPer, and a conservative on most issues. Begich is stronger than Walker, and better. If anyone should drop out, its Walker. He had his chance, and he f*^&ed up. Let the better man win.

Walker is so unpopular that he's easily leading a Republican in a heavily Republican state.
He is unpopular, that is true. He is in the top ten of the most unpopular governors in the USA. This speaks more to the weakness of Dunleavy being a poor candidate and the flaws in the GOP coalition than Walker's ability.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #8 on: July 10, 2018, 05:21:05 pm »

Obviously a state Senator like Dunleavy doesnít have nearly as much name recognition as Walker or Begich, so that probably also explains his underwhelming numbers. Itís also a state that is trending Democratic.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #9 on: July 10, 2018, 05:22:07 pm »

Itís Begichís fault if Dunleavy wins, not Walkerís. Walker is the incumbent governor, he has a hell of a lot more right to run for his own seat than some ex-Senator. Begich shouldíve waited if he wanted to run for Governor, or shouldíve run for his old Senate seat instead.
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Canis
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« Reply #10 on: July 10, 2018, 06:06:35 pm »

Obviously a state Senator like Dunleavy doesnít have nearly as much name recognition as Walker or Begich, so that probably also explains his underwhelming numbers. Itís also a state that is trending Democratic.

if that were the case then undecideds would be up and Begich and Walkers numbers would be far lower
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« Reply #11 on: July 10, 2018, 06:31:56 pm »

if that were the case then undecideds would be up and Begich and Walkers numbers would be far lower

I wouldnít say that 12% is a small percentage of undecideds, especially if they lean Republican... but thatís kind of beside the point. Citing this poll as evidence for Dunleavy being a terrible candidate makes about as much sense as referring to Steve Pearce's internal polls in which he was "only" losing by 2 and 4 points, respectively, to prove that Lujan Grisham is a "terrible" candidate (which many people here actually did). Iím not saying that Dunleavy is a particularly good recruit, but the fact that heís "only" led by 4-8 points in all three Democratic-leaning polls so far doesnít make him a joke candidate. I personally think this race is a Tossup, perhaps with a slight R tilt. AK polls were pretty accurate in 2014, so it would be nice to get a non-internal poll here for once.
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Deranged California Suburbanite
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« Reply #12 on: July 10, 2018, 11:07:10 pm »

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Frenchy
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« Reply #13 on: July 11, 2018, 03:47:39 pm »

Hate to be that person, but the database shows Dunleavy and Begich at 28 and Walker at 32.
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Canis
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« Reply #14 on: July 11, 2018, 03:54:02 pm »

Hate to be that person, but the database shows Dunleavy and Begich at 28 and Walker at 32.

thats weird a mod should fix that
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The Saint
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« Reply #15 on: July 13, 2018, 01:14:04 pm »

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President Griffin
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« Reply #16 on: July 13, 2018, 01:41:18 pm »

Alaska polling is bad in general (harder to poll it than Titanium R Nevada), so you can probably assume any one of these candidates is leading by up to 10 points right now.
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#Kavanaugh For Prison
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« Reply #17 on: July 13, 2018, 03:26:06 pm »

Remember when the final Alaska poll in the 2016 Presidential Election had Hillary Clinton winning by 4?
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #18 on: July 13, 2018, 06:49:03 pm »

I think Walker holds on
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« Reply #19 on: July 16, 2018, 05:12:39 pm »


I doubt it, due to vote splitting.  It's odd, since Walker was a Republican, but I guess he became a de facto Democrat due to the fact that he ran against a Republican in 2014, so he's seen as a Democrat even though he was a Republican and was endorsed by Sarah Palin. 
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