2018 Zimbabwean general election thread

[UWS]

On July 30 2018, in 4 weeks, the first general election in Zimbabwe since the 2017 coup d’Etat will be held. Will the ZANU-PF (the political party of Robert Mugabe) win another term or will Zimbabweans express a desire of change by electing the MDC-T after almost 40 years of Mugabe?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zimbabwean_general_election,_2018

[Galaxie]

Is the expectation going into this election that it will be fair or rigged?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The MDC has been utterly degraded by Chasima, it's a shame.

[UWS]

The MDC has been utterly degraded by Chasima, it's a shame.

How's that?

[jaichind]

Mugabe held a press conference where he refused to endorse his successor Mnangagwa.  Seems like an attempt to get attention on himself when he is no longer in the limelight.

[jaichind]

Very early returns seems to indicate large lead for Chamisa.  But I suspect they are from more urban areas and the ZANU-PF heartland are not reporting yet.

Overall I am impressed and surprised that ZANU-PF let Mugabe speak openly like this.  I figure they will put him under house arrest and say that he is "ill" or just let him take a swim in the Crocodile Nile.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

I'm guessing it will probably go into a second round. I'm hopeful that the people of Zimbabwe will be able to freely pick whomever they want. I'm optimistic at this point.

[jaichind]

Not sure how legit this is but this shows with around 16% of booth reporting Mnangagwa has a large lead with ZANU-PF strongholds coming in with quicker reports.  Chamisa needs opposition urban strongholds of Harare and Bulawayo to report a strong result to have a chance.

[jaichind]

All things equal results from individual polling stations being circulated on twitter seems to favor Chamisa by large margins.   But they seem to be from urban areas.   

[Adam Griffin]

From that data above/making a simple general assumption at the province level by splitting the provinces into two groups, 22% of ZANU-PF's stronger provinces (Mashonaland W/E/C, Masvingo & Midlands) are reporting, compared to 9% for MDC (Bulawayo, Harare, Matabeleland N/S & Manicaland).

1418   6411   22.1%
401   4607   8.7%

[jaichind]

It seems nearly 20% of the original  official result forms that the election commission will use to compute result have gone missing.  Clearly if Chamisa loses he will cry fraud.

[jaichind]

And the winner is



Mugabe !!

[jaichind]

Early official results should have been out over an hour ago.  A delay like this seems to indicate that ZANU-PF has lost.

[Former President tack50]

I guess ZANU-PF will have to work harder than usual to rig the election, hence the delay

[Adam Griffin]

ZEC just announced the results for 7 parliament constituencies; ZANU-PF won 5 or 6 of them.

[jaichind]

Zimbabwe's electoral commission says that they will hold back Prez results until all votes are counted and verified. 

[jaichind]

Parliamentary results so far how large of the ZANU-PF leads are going to be in their strongholds for Prez race.

[jaichind]

Another wave of parliamentary results has ZANU-PF 36 MDC 11 NPF 1.  If these results patterns hold then Mnangagwa should win on the first round.

[Adam Griffin]

Another wave of parliamentary results has ZANU-PF 36 MDC 11 NPF 1.  If these results patterns hold then Mnangagwa should win on the first round.

A lot of commentary I've seen seemed to suggest that Chamisa was likely to overperform MDC (at least in a free and fair contest) quite dramatically, but time will tell.

[jaichind]

Parliamentary results so far

 

When compared to 2008



Seems to indicate that MDC still has chance since areas of 2008 MDC (both factions) strength are not being reported as much.

[jaichind]

It seems now it is ZANU-PF 56 MDC 23 NPF 1.  Some MDC seats in 2008 now being won by ZANU-PF.  It seems that ZANU-PF should get to a majority.  Also the MDC-T and MDC-A split also cost the opposition some seats. 

[jaichind]

Now it is ZANU-PF 73 MDC 28 NPF 1.

[jaichind]

Another wave of parliamentary results.  ZANU-PF winning a bunch of seats that MDC (either faction) won in 2008.  Pretty much puts ZANU-PF victory in parliamentary elections beyond doubt.

[Lachi]

There should be a supranational tribunal that can invalidate election results for a country if there is absolute proof of fraud.

This is a horrible idea, but it is one that popped into my head.

[jaichind]

It seems that all the parliamentary election results should be all announced over the next 10-15 hours or so.  It seems for Prez results it will be another 1-2 days on top of that !!! Even if ZANU-PF wants to rig the results surely they can be more efficient about it.   Only my home county of Westchester counts slower than this.