San Diego Mayor

[socaldem]

Suprisingly, the latest Survey USA poll on Sept. 27 has the mayoral race as a dead heat with Democrat Donna Frye besting Republican Jerry Sanders by an insignificant 49%-48%.

As most of you likely know, this year San Diego--the country's sixth largest city (because the city limits encompass most of the metro area)--is having its second mayoral election in as many years because of the controversial reelection and subsequent resignation of disgraced Republican Mayor Dick Murphy.  Murphy's reelection was mired in controversy not only because of his mismanagement of the city but because he received little more than a third of the votes cast.  A larger number of voters intended to vote for write-in candidate Donna Frye, but a couple thousand of her voters (enough to make the difference for Murphy) failed to fill in the proper bubble to indicate that they were doing a write-in when they wrote her name on the write-in line.

In any case, the city's politics and finances are currently in chaos and two city council members have been convicted and ejected from office on corruption charges. 

Democratic City Councilwoman Donna Frye and moderate Republican ex-police chief Jerry Sanders will enter a run-off election in November, a follow-up to the preliminary election held in July in which Frye led the pack with 43% and Sanders received 28%, but when his result is combined with that of the third place candidate--right-wing republican Steve Francis (who was once a NV legislator)--he would have an even 50%. 

Frye, a surf-shop owner and environmental activist who entered politics because her pro-surfer husband had become ill as a result of contaminated seawater, is exactly what you'd imagine an ex-hippie surfer image who had a little too much fun in the '60s and maybe '70s and '80s, too, to look like.  Even so, she's running as a business-friendly no-nonsense candidate and has submitted several detailed policy papers on how she would help restore fiscal sanity to San Diego. 

Sanders is a political neophyte, but he has a lot of public service experience, having served as police chief and as President of the San Diego Red Cross.  As a Republican in the Republican-leaning city (at least in local contests), he would seem to have the advantage.  He seems to be the type of moderate conservative that goes over well there.  Moreover, he has a big money advantage over Frye, which should be a big help since his name recognition is probably not as high as Frye's.

Still, the Frye campaign seems to be building some enthusiasm.  I was skeptical that Frye (who received a little over a third of the vote in the 2004 election as a write-in) would be able to get anything near majority support.  But if the Survey USA poll is accurate, she's on the cusp.  Moreover, the poll shows movement in her direction and away from Sanders over the August numbers. 

Will San Diego be the first big-city to elect a surfer chick?

[Cashcow]

Frye should win, though it's probably very split between city and suburbs (which, as you mentioned, are within the city limits).

[socaldem]

Frye should win, though it's probably very split between city and suburbs (which, as you mentioned, are within the city limits).

Yeah, essentially...

A cool precinct map can be found here:

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20050728/images/precinct.gif

Essentially, the Northern and Western reaches of the city are heavily Republican and there are pockets of moderately Republican areas in the more wealthy coastal areas like La Jolla.  The Francis (green) areas are where the wacko conservatives live (i.e. those that want nothing to do with the city) while the red areas are the more moderate big city Republican establishment types live...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

What's with some of these California cities, like San Diego, Oakland, and Richmond that have boundaries that were designed by drunken otters?

[WMS]

Frye should win, though it's probably very split between city and suburbs (which, as you mentioned, are within the city limits).

Yeah, essentially...

A cool precinct map can be found here:

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20050728/images/precinct.gif

Essentially, the Northern and Western reaches of the city are heavily Republican and there are pockets of moderately Republican areas in the more wealthy coastal areas like La Jolla.  The Francis (green) areas are where the wacko conservatives live (i.e. those that want nothing to do with the city) while the red areas are the more moderate big city Republican establishment types live...

There's some empty gray spaces there, right?

[jimrtex]

What's with some of these California cities, like San Diego, Oakland, and Richmond that have boundaries that were designed by drunken otters?

Sea Otters Could Return to Southern Calif.

October 05, 2005 11:25 PM EDT

SAN FRANCISCO - The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service on Wednesday proposed allowing sea otters back into Southern California waters, saying that scrapping the current "no-otter zone" would boost recovery efforts for the threatened species.
...

[J. J.]

The boundaries have a lot to do with municipal services, IIRC.  Southern CA cities generally would say, "We'll extend our municipal water/sewer lines to your area, but only if you agree to annexation."

[Cashcow]

Wow, I think Frye somehow managed to win my old neighborhood.

[socaldem]

Frye should win, though it's probably very split between city and suburbs (which, as you mentioned, are within the city limits).

Yeah, essentially...

A cool precinct map can be found here:

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20050728/images/precinct.gif

Essentially, the Northern and Western reaches of the city are heavily Republican and there are pockets of moderately Republican areas in the more wealthy coastal areas like La Jolla.  The Francis (green) areas are where the wacko conservatives live (i.e. those that want nothing to do with the city) while the red areas are the more moderate big city Republican establishment types live...

There's some empty gray spaces there, right?

I'm not a San Diego resident...so I may be wrong, but as I recall from my visits (and as census data seems to indicate) the gray spaces are essentially undeveloped land that include hills and canyons and things....

[socaldem]

What's with some of these California cities, like San Diego, Oakland, and Richmond that have boundaries that were designed by drunken otters?

Sea Otters Could Return to Southern Calif.

October 05, 2005 11:25 PM EDT

SAN FRANCISCO - The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service on Wednesday proposed allowing sea otters back into Southern California waters, saying that scrapping the current "no-otter zone" would boost recovery efforts for the threatened species.
...

hehe, Los Angeles' boundaries are pretty bad, too... the city completely surrounds the cities of beverly hills, west hollywood, culver city, and san fernando and has a shoestring attaching the san pedro/harbor area to the rest of the city...

[J-Mann]

A new poll that was carried in the San Diego Daily Transcript has Sanders up 47% to 40%.  It certainly doesn't help that the San Diego Union-Tribune ran a pretty scathing editorial of Frye's economic plan today.

My best guess is that Sanders will win this in a close one.  The whole pension scandal may rub off on Frye, even though she voted against the 2002 proposal.  Interesting that they're both trying to be the outsider in this election.

[phk]

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I might be going to school there within a year.. I hope at least.

[Cashcow]

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I might be going to school there within a year.. I hope at least.

UCSD?

[phk]

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I might be going to school there within a year.. I hope at least.

UCSD?

Yeah, UCSD :-)

[J-Mann]

Polls suggesting that Sanders is pulling away:

http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/california/la-me-sdmayor9oct09,1,3755525.story?coll=la-headlines-pe-california

[socaldem]

A new poll that was carried in the San Diego Daily Transcript has Sanders up 47% to 40%.  It certainly doesn't help that the San Diego Union-Tribune ran a pretty scathing editorial of Frye's economic plan today.

My best guess is that Sanders will win this in a close one.  The whole pension scandal may rub off on Frye, even though she voted against the 2002 proposal.  Interesting that they're both trying to be the outsider in this election.

Hmmm... that's more like what I'd expect in the race as far as polling goes.  I suppose the focus on fiscal issues helps Sanders, particularly since he's a well-respected, untainted outsider moderate republican who may be seen as a balance to the dem-leaning city council. 

I wish Frye could make hay out of the need to invest in public services like the fire department, etc.... 

I think Republicans have a natural turn-out advantage in at-large city races because of the higher propensity voting by the more welathy suburbanites...

[WMS]

Frye should win, though it's probably very split between city and suburbs (which, as you mentioned, are within the city limits).

Yeah, essentially...

A cool precinct map can be found here:

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20050728/images/precinct.gif

Essentially, the Northern and Western reaches of the city are heavily Republican and there are pockets of moderately Republican areas in the more wealthy coastal areas like La Jolla.  The Francis (green) areas are where the wacko conservatives live (i.e. those that want nothing to do with the city) while the red areas are the more moderate big city Republican establishment types live...

There's some empty gray spaces there, right?

I'm not a San Diego resident...so I may be wrong, but as I recall from my visits (and as census data seems to indicate) the gray spaces are essentially undeveloped land that include hills and canyons and things....

That makes a lot of sense. Thanks for the information.