The fact that this pollster showed Hawley +2 last time shows that there is no momentum on ethier side, at least according to this pollster. If thats true, the undecideds will break D and Claire should win.
If even the most R friendly pollster is showing a lackluster result for Hawley, then this race is tilt/lean D.
What? It's July. It's way too soon to come to that conclusion based on this poll only. Also, it's not like Remington is a top quality pollster either...
The fact that this pollster showed Hawley +2 last time shows that there is no momentum on ethier side, at least according to this pollster. If thats true, the undecideds will break D and Claire should win.
If even the most R friendly pollster is showing a lackluster result for Hawley, then this race is tilt/lean D.
This race cannot be called anything but a tossup if the polling is this inconsistent.
Remington is the only pollster that even has Hawley in the lead anymore. It even has an R on the wiki, showing this is a bit biased to Hawley, and even then, he has lost his +4 lead.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri,_2018Polling has had this race at tied, to Mccaskill +4, and events that we already know are going to transpire(Rising medical costs, the SC confirmation which has shown to moralize more D voters in polling, the tariffs, etc.) will tilt this race to Mccaskill. Waves develop near the end of a cycle because thats when the undecideds move towards the party. In 2010, and 2014, it was the rising cost of Obamacare that moved them over to the Rs in September and October. The R needs a lead to be able to withstand, which is why FL, ND, and IN are more vulnerable.
Funny enough, this was the race I was sure of that we would lose. I even thought we should just triage this. But Hawley turned out to be a terrible candidate to easy to attack, and the Missouri R party is still having a bit of turmoil. It will be interesting to see what her margin is, but Im pretty confident she will win.
