Counties with "strange" electoral histories carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016
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  Counties with "strange" electoral histories carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016
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Author Topic: Counties with "strange" electoral histories carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016  (Read 3902 times)
SingingAnalyst
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« on: July 12, 2018, 12:24:00 AM »

Most of the counties with "strange" histories (Elliott, KY; Cottle, TX; Franklin, GA; etc.) went for Trump in 2016, usually by crushing margins.

The only "strange" results I can think of in counties carried by Hillary Clinton are DuPage, IL; Orange, CA; and San Francisco, CA: DuPage and Orange because of their essentially solid Republican histories since 1936; San Francisco because it either swung or trended D in every election since 1976. In addition the Black Belt counties of AL and MS are strange in that they all voted for Goldwater and then, once Black voters got the franchise, for Humphrey. Perhaps an honorable mention could go to Oakland County, MI, since it came in 1968 within 1000 votes or so of joining neighboring Macomb, MI as the only Humphrey '68 - Bush '92 - Gore '00 county. But nothing else about that county's voting is remarkable.

Any others? We already know there are no Kerry - McCain - Romney - Clinton counties.
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tara gilesbie
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« Reply #1 on: July 12, 2018, 12:47:00 AM »

Whitman County, WA has only voted for six Democrats for President - William Jennings Bryan (1896, 1900), Woodrow Wilson (1912, 1916), Franklin Roosevelt (1932, 1936), Bill Clinton (1992, 1996), Barack Obama (2008) and Hillary Clinton (2016). This makes her the first losing Democrat since Bryan to win Whitman.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #2 on: July 13, 2018, 05:11:53 PM »

Whitman County, WA has only voted for six Democrats for President - William Jennings Bryan (1896, 1900), Woodrow Wilson (1912, 1916), Franklin Roosevelt (1932, 1936), Bill Clinton (1992, 1996), Barack Obama (2008) and Hillary Clinton (2016). This makes her the first losing Democrat since Bryan to win Whitman.
Fascinating! So it joins Orange, CA; Orange, FL; and DuPage, IL and a host of deep South counties as being a Goldwater-Hillary Clinton county.
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« Reply #3 on: July 14, 2018, 01:47:56 PM »
« Edited: July 14, 2018, 03:34:15 PM by Ἅιδης »

Most of the counties with "strange" histories (Elliott, KY; Cottle, TX; Franklin, GA; etc.) went for Trump in 2016, usually by crushing margins.

I find Cottle County's development very interesting. When is it going to vote >100% Republican?
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« Reply #4 on: July 14, 2018, 02:18:59 PM »

Kenedy County, Texas
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #5 on: July 14, 2018, 03:09:01 PM »

Most of the counties with "strange" histories (Elliott, KY; Cottle, TX; Franklin, GA; etc.) went for Trump in 2016, usually by crushing margins.

I find Cottle County's development very interesting. When is it going to vote >100%?

Cottle is basically just generational turnover of formerly isolated rural Dems.  The interesting thing going forward will be whether Clinton 2016 was the floor for rural Dems in general or if the trend will only keep going.
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nclib
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« Reply #6 on: July 14, 2018, 05:42:26 PM »

Washtenaw, MI went from Nixon 1968 to McGovern to Ford to Carter 1980. From 1988 on, it has voted Democratic.
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Kodak
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« Reply #7 on: July 23, 2018, 07:54:50 PM »

Washtenaw, MI went from Nixon 1968 to McGovern to Ford to Carter 1980. From 1988 on, it has voted Democratic.
Pitkin County, CO voted Nixon-McGovern-Ford-Reagan, and has also voted Democratic since 1988. It and Washtenaw are the only counties to flip in the opposite direction of the national swing more than once since 1968.
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Solid4096
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« Reply #8 on: July 27, 2018, 10:50:13 AM »

Washtenaw, MI went from Nixon 1968 to McGovern to Ford to Carter 1980. From 1988 on, it has voted Democratic.
Pitkin County, CO voted Nixon-McGovern-Ford-Reagan, and has also voted Democratic since 1988. It and Washtenaw are the only counties to flip in the opposite direction of the national swing more than once since 1968.

Clay County, South Dakota
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Zyzz
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« Reply #9 on: July 28, 2018, 03:37:40 PM »

Most of the counties with "strange" histories (Elliott, KY; Cottle, TX; Franklin, GA; etc.) went for Trump in 2016, usually by crushing margins.

I find Cottle County's development very interesting. When is it going to vote >100%?

Cottle is basically just generational turnover of formerly isolated rural Dems.  The interesting thing going forward will be whether Clinton 2016 was the floor for rural Dems in general or if the trend will only keep going.

Yea I remember after seeing Obama getting blow out in Appalachia and other parts of rural America in 2008, I thought there was no way he or any Democrat could do worse in the future.
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mianfei
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« Reply #10 on: September 11, 2019, 10:46:34 AM »

Washtenaw, MI went from Nixon 1968 to McGovern to Ford to Carter 1980. From 1988 on, it has voted Democratic.
Jackson County, Illinois is distinctly similar to Washtenaw County in its history.

It was highly Democratic in the Third Party system, Republican until LBJ, then shifted from Nixon to McGovern in 1972, and has been Democratic since 1988.

The two are amongst just five counties that voted for Landon in 1936 and McGovern in 1972. However, with its location, Jackson County did swing substantially to Trump with Hilary winning only a plurality, so it may be that the Democrats cannot hold it despite its college characteristics.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #11 on: September 13, 2019, 07:00:55 PM »

What even counts as 'strange'
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« Reply #12 on: September 13, 2019, 09:49:23 PM »


For instance non-Southern, non-Arizonian counties that voted for Goldwater.
Or Appalachian counties that voted for Obama once.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #13 on: September 13, 2019, 09:54:31 PM »


For instance non-Southern, non-Arizonian counties that voted for Goldwater.
Or Appalachian counties that voted for Obama once.

One of my favorite examples of this is Teton County, Wyoming. Teton County went for Goldwater in 1964 by a narrow margin, but in 2016, voted for Clinton by over 20% and was her only county in the state. Teton County flipped to the Democrats, beginning in 2004 with John Kerry, and has become more Democratic over time. Conversely, Sweetwater County, which was Lyndon Johnson's best county in that state in 1964, went to Trump with more than 60% in 2016.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2019, 02:11:23 AM »

Washtenaw, MI went from Nixon 1968 to McGovern to Ford to Carter 1980. From 1988 on, it has voted Democratic.
Jackson County, Illinois is distinctly similar to Washtenaw County in its history.

It was highly Democratic in the Third Party system, Republican until LBJ, then shifted from Nixon to McGovern in 1972, and has been Democratic since 1988.

The two are amongst just five counties that voted for Landon in 1936 and McGovern in 1972. However, with its location, Jackson County did swing substantially to Trump with Hilary winning only a plurality, so it may be that the Democrats cannot hold it despite its college characteristics.

Jackson County, interestingly enough, was the only county in Illinois that McGovern won. 1972 is the last time that Cook County voted Republican, and Nixon of course won every other county in the state besides Jackson. It kept Illinois from being an all-Republican sweep.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #15 on: November 05, 2019, 06:07:52 PM »

Wild or countercyclical swings, frequent support for losers from both parties.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #16 on: August 20, 2020, 08:04:12 PM »


For instance non-Southern, non-Arizonian counties that voted for Goldwater.
Or Appalachian counties that voted for Obama once.

One of my favorite examples of this is Teton County, Wyoming. Teton County went for Goldwater in 1964 by a narrow margin, but in 2016, voted for Clinton by over 20% and was her only county in the state. Teton County flipped to the Democrats, beginning in 2004 with John Kerry, and has become more Democratic over time. Conversely, Sweetwater County, which was Lyndon Johnson's best county in that state in 1964, went to Trump with more than 60% in 2016.

Adding to this, Teton County had one of the strongest anti-Bush swings in 2004. In 2000 (the last election in which it voted Republican), Bush won it 52-39% against Al Gore, with Ralph Nader taking 7% of the vote. Bush carried it by 13% that year. Four years later, John Kerry won it 53-45%, carrying it by 8%. Kerry clearly picked up Nader's vote, but he also won over a substantial number of Bush voters. I'm assuming that these were "country club" Republicans of the sort that were already beginning to trend against the Party, even before the arrival of Trump on the scene. Teton County is known for its wealthy, well-educated population, so this would make sense.
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Alcibiades
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« Reply #17 on: August 21, 2020, 03:05:20 AM »


For instance non-Southern, non-Arizonian counties that voted for Goldwater.
Or Appalachian counties that voted for Obama once.

One of my favorite examples of this is Teton County, Wyoming. Teton County went for Goldwater in 1964 by a narrow margin, but in 2016, voted for Clinton by over 20% and was her only county in the state. Teton County flipped to the Democrats, beginning in 2004 with John Kerry, and has become more Democratic over time. Conversely, Sweetwater County, which was Lyndon Johnson's best county in that state in 1964, went to Trump with more than 60% in 2016.

Adding to this, Teton County had one of the strongest anti-Bush swings in 2004. In 2000 (the last election in which it voted Republican), Bush won it 52-39% against Al Gore, with Ralph Nader taking 7% of the vote. Bush carried it by 13% that year. Four years later, John Kerry won it 53-45%, carrying it by 8%. Kerry clearly picked up Nader's vote, but he also won over a substantial number of Bush voters. I'm assuming that these were "country club" Republicans of the sort that were already beginning to trend against the Party, even before the arrival of Trump on the scene. Teton County is known for its wealthy, well-educated population, so this would make sense.

It may also have been because of migration of wealthy liberals as Jackson Hole became a well-known, fashionable ski resort. Between 2000 and 2004, Bush only lost 300 votes, third parties lost 700, but Kerry gained almost 2,000 votes for the Democrats.

Similarly, Trump got roughly the same number of votes as Dole in 1996, but Hillary had over 3,000 more than her husband; from 1990 to 2000 the county saw a huge population increase of 63.4%.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #18 on: August 21, 2020, 05:27:58 AM »

Lucas County, Ohio, where Toledo is located, is an urban industrial county that voted McGovern in 1972 and Reagan in 1980.
Precisely: Humphrey by 12% - McGovern by 1% - Carter by 15% - Reagan by 0.7% - Reagan by 1.5% (then Dukakis by 8% and then only D slam dunks)
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #19 on: August 22, 2020, 05:49:17 PM »
« Edited: August 22, 2020, 05:52:35 PM by Calthrina950 »

Lucas County, Ohio, where Toledo is located, is an urban industrial county that voted McGovern in 1972 and Reagan in 1980.
Precisely: Humphrey by 12% - McGovern by 1% - Carter by 15% - Reagan by 0.7% - Reagan by 1.5% (then Dukakis by 8% and then only D slam dunks)


The 1972 results in Ohio are interesting. In addition to Lucas County, Athens County also voted for McGovern by an extremely narrow margin-he won it by 1.22%. To my knowledge, McGovern was the first losing Democrat ever to carry Athens County, which was once a Republican stronghold. Athens County, prior to 1972, had only voted Democratic three times since the formation of the Republican Party in 1854-in 1936 and 1940 for Franklin D. Roosevelt, and in 1964 for Lyndon B. Johnson. Johnson had the best performance of any Democrat there before John Kerry in 2004. McGovern did very well in college towns that year, and I've seen articles stating that he tied Nixon among voters aged 18-21. Athens County was one of the few counties (along with Jackson County, Illinois and Pitkin County, Colorado) to shift from Nixon in 1968 to McGovern in 1972.

Conversely, 1972 remains the last time Mahoning and Cuyahoga Counties have voted Republican-Nixon won both with pluralities, and it was the last time Trumbull County voted Republican before 2016, as well as the last time before 2012 that Belmont, Jefferson, and Monroe Counties did so. Ohio as a whole was slightly more Democratic than the national average in 1972-one of only a few occasions where this has happened in the past century (with 1916, 1964, and 2004 being the others).
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #20 on: August 22, 2020, 05:56:59 PM »

Washtenaw, MI went from Nixon 1968 to McGovern to Ford to Carter 1980. From 1988 on, it has voted Democratic.
Pitkin County, CO voted Nixon-McGovern-Ford-Reagan, and has also voted Democratic since 1988. It and Washtenaw are the only counties to flip in the opposite direction of the national swing more than once since 1968.

Pitkin County's shift from 1968 to 1972 was exceptional. Nixon won it 56.2-36.0% in 1968, but in 1972, McGovern carried it 54.2-44.2%, although Colorado as a whole went to Nixon with 63% of the vote, and he improved there compared to 1968. It's similar to Denver County's shift against Reagan in 1984, although Reagan improved in Colorado by several points compared to 1980 and got a similar share of the statewide vote as Nixon. And in 1976, Gerald Ford won Pitkin County 53.6-39.8%. Pitkin County's voters certainly seemed to favor more "elitist" candidates during that time.
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mianfei
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« Reply #21 on: October 27, 2020, 07:09:12 AM »
« Edited: October 27, 2020, 07:13:43 AM by mianfei »

Washtenaw, MI went from Nixon 1968 to McGovern to Ford to Carter 1980. From 1988 on, it has voted Democratic.
Jackson County, Illinois is distinctly similar to Washtenaw County in its history.

It was highly Democratic in the Third Party system, Republican until LBJ, then shifted from Nixon to McGovern in 1972, and has been Democratic since 1988.

The two are amongst just five counties that voted for Landon in 1936 and McGovern in 1972. However, with its location, Jackson County did swing substantially to Trump with Hilary winning only a plurality, so it may be that the Democrats cannot hold it despite its college characteristics.
Jackson County, interestingly enough, was the only county in Illinois that McGovern won. 1972 is the last time that Cook County voted Republican, and Nixon of course won every other county in the state besides Jackson. It kept Illinois from being an all-Republican sweep.
It’s interesting that even winning only one county, Illinois was McGovern’s eleventh-best state by raw vote percentage, whereas Johnson actually did worse than his national percentage there in 1964. The same is true of California, and both states were narrowly won by Ford in 1976, and then Carter only carried three counties in each in 1980. Albert J. Menendez argued that California had very large highly liberal Democratic and very large, highly conservative Republican organisations at that time, but never says that of Illinois.

The similarity in voting patterns between Illinois and California is quite striking and has been so ever since California entered the Union in 1850. However, it is seldom noted in the politics textbooks. It is true that Illinois and California voted for different candidates in 1880, 1912, 1916 and 1960, but in all cases wafer-thin margins were involved.

In fact, since 1864, the largest absolute difference between the two states’ voting patterns occurred in 1936 when California voted 17.24 points more Democratic than Illinois (showing how bad a candidate Ozark mountaineer Alf Landon was in the West). The two pairs of states – Mississippi and Alabama, Kansas and North Dakota – with the longest runs of voting for the same candidate both saw wider differences in the Catholicism-influenced 1928 election. That 1928 election shows the second-biggest difference between California and Illinois, with California’s hostility towards Al Smith making it vote 15.85 points more Republican than Illinois.
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Athens County was one of the few counties (along with Jackson County, Illinois and Pitkin County, Colorado) to shift from Nixon in 1968 to McGovern in 1972.
There was also Washtenaw County, eleven counties in South Dakota, and Rusk County in Wisconsin, the latter of which Trump won by two-to-one after it had voted for Obama as recently as 2008.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #22 on: December 09, 2020, 03:17:12 AM »

Lucas County, Ohio, where Toledo is located, is an urban industrial county that voted McGovern in 1972 and Reagan in 1980.
Precisely: Humphrey by 12% - McGovern by 1% - Carter by 15% - Reagan by 0.7% - Reagan by 1.5% (then Dukakis by 8% and then only D slam dunks)


The 1972 results in Ohio are interesting. In addition to Lucas County, Athens County also voted for McGovern by an extremely narrow margin-he won it by 1.22%. To my knowledge, McGovern was the first losing Democrat ever to carry Athens County, which was once a Republican stronghold. Athens County, prior to 1972, had only voted Democratic three times since the formation of the Republican Party in 1854-in 1936 and 1940 for Franklin D. Roosevelt, and in 1964 for Lyndon B. Johnson. Johnson had the best performance of any Democrat there before John Kerry in 2004. McGovern did very well in college towns that year, and I've seen articles stating that he tied Nixon among voters aged 18-21. Athens County was one of the few counties (along with Jackson County, Illinois and Pitkin County, Colorado) to shift from Nixon in 1968 to McGovern in 1972.

Conversely, 1972 remains the last time Mahoning and Cuyahoga Counties have voted Republican-Nixon won both with pluralities, and it was the last time Trumbull County voted Republican before 2016, as well as the last time before 2012 that Belmont, Jefferson, and Monroe Counties did so. Ohio as a whole was slightly more Democratic than the national average in 1972-one of only a few occasions where this has happened in the past century (with 1916, 1964, and 2004 being the others).

This part is no longer true, as Trump won Mahoning County this year, becoming the first Republican since Nixon to carry it.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #23 on: December 09, 2020, 04:50:51 AM »

Lucas County, Ohio, where Toledo is located, is an urban industrial county that voted McGovern in 1972 and Reagan in 1980.
Precisely: Humphrey by 12% - McGovern by 1% - Carter by 15% - Reagan by 0.7% - Reagan by 1.5% (then Dukakis by 8% and then only D slam dunks)


The 1972 results in Ohio are interesting. In addition to Lucas County, Athens County also voted for McGovern by an extremely narrow margin-he won it by 1.22%. To my knowledge, McGovern was the first losing Democrat ever to carry Athens County, which was once a Republican stronghold. Athens County, prior to 1972, had only voted Democratic three times since the formation of the Republican Party in 1854-in 1936 and 1940 for Franklin D. Roosevelt, and in 1964 for Lyndon B. Johnson. Johnson had the best performance of any Democrat there before John Kerry in 2004. McGovern did very well in college towns that year, and I've seen articles stating that he tied Nixon among voters aged 18-21. Athens County was one of the few counties (along with Jackson County, Illinois and Pitkin County, Colorado) to shift from Nixon in 1968 to McGovern in 1972.

Conversely, 1972 remains the last time Mahoning and Cuyahoga Counties have voted Republican-Nixon won both with pluralities, and it was the last time Trumbull County voted Republican before 2016, as well as the last time before 2012 that Belmont, Jefferson, and Monroe Counties did so. Ohio as a whole was slightly more Democratic than the national average in 1972-one of only a few occasions where this has happened in the past century (with 1916, 1964, and 2004 being the others).

This part is no longer true, as Trump won Mahoning County this year, becoming the first Republican since Nixon to carry it.
Mahoning County is interesting. Yes, it voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, but barely, after voting nearly 2-1 for Gore, Kerry, and Obama twice. Trump in 2020 won a majority for the first time since Eisenhower in 1956; the previous time a Republican won a majority was Hoover in his landslide 1932 loss, strangely enough.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #24 on: December 09, 2020, 10:19:08 AM »

Lucas County, Ohio, where Toledo is located, is an urban industrial county that voted McGovern in 1972 and Reagan in 1980.
Precisely: Humphrey by 12% - McGovern by 1% - Carter by 15% - Reagan by 0.7% - Reagan by 1.5% (then Dukakis by 8% and then only D slam dunks)


The 1972 results in Ohio are interesting. In addition to Lucas County, Athens County also voted for McGovern by an extremely narrow margin-he won it by 1.22%. To my knowledge, McGovern was the first losing Democrat ever to carry Athens County, which was once a Republican stronghold. Athens County, prior to 1972, had only voted Democratic three times since the formation of the Republican Party in 1854-in 1936 and 1940 for Franklin D. Roosevelt, and in 1964 for Lyndon B. Johnson. Johnson had the best performance of any Democrat there before John Kerry in 2004. McGovern did very well in college towns that year, and I've seen articles stating that he tied Nixon among voters aged 18-21. Athens County was one of the few counties (along with Jackson County, Illinois and Pitkin County, Colorado) to shift from Nixon in 1968 to McGovern in 1972.

Conversely, 1972 remains the last time Mahoning and Cuyahoga Counties have voted Republican-Nixon won both with pluralities, and it was the last time Trumbull County voted Republican before 2016, as well as the last time before 2012 that Belmont, Jefferson, and Monroe Counties did so. Ohio as a whole was slightly more Democratic than the national average in 1972-one of only a few occasions where this has happened in the past century (with 1916, 1964, and 2004 being the others).

This part is no longer true, as Trump won Mahoning County this year, becoming the first Republican since Nixon to carry it.
Mahoning County is interesting. Yes, it voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, but barely, after voting nearly 2-1 for Gore, Kerry, and Obama twice. Trump in 2020 won a majority for the first time since Eisenhower in 1956; the previous time a Republican won a majority was Hoover in his landslide 1932 loss, strangely enough.

Mahoning County, prior to the Roosevelt realignment of the 1930s, was a Republican stronghold, being part of the old "Western Reserve" settled by New Englanders from Connecticut and elsewhere, with strong Yankee roots and thus, a tradition of Republicanism. Pryor to 1936, the county only voted Democratic three times-in 1892 for Grover Cleveland and in 1912/1916 for Woodrow Wilson. Wilson, interestingly enough, was the only Democrat before Franklin Roosevelt, going back to the formation of the Republican Party, who obtained a majority in Mahoning County. He won it in 1912 because of the split between Taft and Theodore Roosevelt.
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