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December 15, 2019, 03:56:59 pm
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  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, Senator ON Progressive)
  Counties with "strange" electoral histories carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016
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Author Topic: Counties with "strange" electoral histories carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016  (Read 1621 times)
mathstatman
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« on: July 12, 2018, 12:24:00 am »

Most of the counties with "strange" histories (Elliott, KY; Cottle, TX; Franklin, GA; etc.) went for Trump in 2016, usually by crushing margins.

The only "strange" results I can think of in counties carried by Hillary Clinton are DuPage, IL; Orange, CA; and San Francisco, CA: DuPage and Orange because of their essentially solid Republican histories since 1936; San Francisco because it either swung or trended D in every election since 1976. In addition the Black Belt counties of AL and MS are strange in that they all voted for Goldwater and then, once Black voters got the franchise, for Humphrey. Perhaps an honorable mention could go to Oakland County, MI, since it came in 1968 within 1000 votes or so of joining neighboring Macomb, MI as the only Humphrey '68 - Bush '92 - Gore '00 county. But nothing else about that county's voting is remarkable.

Any others? We already know there are no Kerry - McCain - Romney - Clinton counties.
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tara gilesbie
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« Reply #1 on: July 12, 2018, 12:47:00 am »

Whitman County, WA has only voted for six Democrats for President - William Jennings Bryan (1896, 1900), Woodrow Wilson (1912, 1916), Franklin Roosevelt (1932, 1936), Bill Clinton (1992, 1996), Barack Obama (2008) and Hillary Clinton (2016). This makes her the first losing Democrat since Bryan to win Whitman.
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mathstatman
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« Reply #2 on: July 13, 2018, 05:11:53 pm »

Whitman County, WA has only voted for six Democrats for President - William Jennings Bryan (1896, 1900), Woodrow Wilson (1912, 1916), Franklin Roosevelt (1932, 1936), Bill Clinton (1992, 1996), Barack Obama (2008) and Hillary Clinton (2016). This makes her the first losing Democrat since Bryan to win Whitman.
Fascinating! So it joins Orange, CA; Orange, FL; and DuPage, IL and a host of deep South counties as being a Goldwater-Hillary Clinton county.
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Hades
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« Reply #3 on: July 14, 2018, 01:47:56 pm »
« Edited: July 14, 2018, 03:34:15 pm by Ἅιδης »

Most of the counties with "strange" histories (Elliott, KY; Cottle, TX; Franklin, GA; etc.) went for Trump in 2016, usually by crushing margins.

I find Cottle County's development very interesting. When is it going to vote >100% Republican?
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Solid4096
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« Reply #4 on: July 14, 2018, 02:18:59 pm »

Kenedy County, Texas
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #5 on: July 14, 2018, 03:09:01 pm »

Most of the counties with "strange" histories (Elliott, KY; Cottle, TX; Franklin, GA; etc.) went for Trump in 2016, usually by crushing margins.

I find Cottle County's development very interesting. When is it going to vote >100%?

Cottle is basically just generational turnover of formerly isolated rural Dems.  The interesting thing going forward will be whether Clinton 2016 was the floor for rural Dems in general or if the trend will only keep going.
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nclib
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« Reply #6 on: July 14, 2018, 05:42:26 pm »

Washtenaw, MI went from Nixon 1968 to McGovern to Ford to Carter 1980. From 1988 on, it has voted Democratic.
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Kodak
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« Reply #7 on: July 23, 2018, 07:54:50 pm »

Washtenaw, MI went from Nixon 1968 to McGovern to Ford to Carter 1980. From 1988 on, it has voted Democratic.
Pitkin County, CO voted Nixon-McGovern-Ford-Reagan, and has also voted Democratic since 1988. It and Washtenaw are the only counties to flip in the opposite direction of the national swing more than once since 1968.
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Solid4096
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« Reply #8 on: July 27, 2018, 10:50:13 am »

Washtenaw, MI went from Nixon 1968 to McGovern to Ford to Carter 1980. From 1988 on, it has voted Democratic.
Pitkin County, CO voted Nixon-McGovern-Ford-Reagan, and has also voted Democratic since 1988. It and Washtenaw are the only counties to flip in the opposite direction of the national swing more than once since 1968.

Clay County, South Dakota
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Zyzz
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« Reply #9 on: July 28, 2018, 03:37:40 pm »

Most of the counties with "strange" histories (Elliott, KY; Cottle, TX; Franklin, GA; etc.) went for Trump in 2016, usually by crushing margins.

I find Cottle County's development very interesting. When is it going to vote >100%?

Cottle is basically just generational turnover of formerly isolated rural Dems.  The interesting thing going forward will be whether Clinton 2016 was the floor for rural Dems in general or if the trend will only keep going.

Yea I remember after seeing Obama getting blow out in Appalachia and other parts of rural America in 2008, I thought there was no way he or any Democrat could do worse in the future.
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mianfei
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« Reply #10 on: September 11, 2019, 10:46:34 am »

Washtenaw, MI went from Nixon 1968 to McGovern to Ford to Carter 1980. From 1988 on, it has voted Democratic.
Jackson County, Illinois is distinctly similar to Washtenaw County in its history.

It was highly Democratic in the Third Party system, Republican until LBJ, then shifted from Nixon to McGovern in 1972, and has been Democratic since 1988.

The two are amongst just five counties that voted for Landon in 1936 and McGovern in 1972. However, with its location, Jackson County did swing substantially to Trump with Hilary winning only a plurality, so it may be that the Democrats cannot hold it despite its college characteristics.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #11 on: September 13, 2019, 07:00:55 pm »

What even counts as 'strange'
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Hades
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« Reply #12 on: September 13, 2019, 09:49:23 pm »


For instance non-Southern, non-Arizonian counties that voted for Goldwater.
Or Appalachian counties that voted for Obama once.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #13 on: September 13, 2019, 09:54:31 pm »


For instance non-Southern, non-Arizonian counties that voted for Goldwater.
Or Appalachian counties that voted for Obama once.

One of my favorite examples of this is Teton County, Wyoming. Teton County went for Goldwater in 1964 by a narrow margin, but in 2016, voted for Clinton by over 20% and was her only county in the state. Teton County flipped to the Democrats, beginning in 2004 with John Kerry, and has become more Democratic over time. Conversely, Sweetwater County, which was Lyndon Johnson's best county in that state in 1964, went to Trump with more than 60% in 2016.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2019, 02:11:23 am »

Washtenaw, MI went from Nixon 1968 to McGovern to Ford to Carter 1980. From 1988 on, it has voted Democratic.
Jackson County, Illinois is distinctly similar to Washtenaw County in its history.

It was highly Democratic in the Third Party system, Republican until LBJ, then shifted from Nixon to McGovern in 1972, and has been Democratic since 1988.

The two are amongst just five counties that voted for Landon in 1936 and McGovern in 1972. However, with its location, Jackson County did swing substantially to Trump with Hilary winning only a plurality, so it may be that the Democrats cannot hold it despite its college characteristics.

Jackson County, interestingly enough, was the only county in Illinois that McGovern won. 1972 is the last time that Cook County voted Republican, and Nixon of course won every other county in the state besides Jackson. It kept Illinois from being an all-Republican sweep.
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mathstatman
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« Reply #15 on: November 05, 2019, 06:07:52 pm »

Wild or countercyclical swings, frequent support for losers from both parties.
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