MT-Remington: Tester leads by 3

[MT Treasurer]

It’s definitely closer to the actual state of the race than that SurveyMonkey garbage Tender Branson added to the database. Lean D, I think Tester wins by 3-5 unless Rosendale starts running a better campaign and the national environment improves for Republicans.

[MT Treasurer]

Remington (R): Tester +3 - Republican pollster, junk poll, Tester is leading by much more than that
PPP (D): Bredesen +3 - Devastating poll for Republicans, Tossup/Tilt D

[MT Treasurer]

PPP > Remington.

I'm not sure why some here are so quick to dismiss PPP.

Remington's final MO poll had Blunt winning by 4, Trump by 13 and Greitens by 1, so aside from the Senate numbers there was nothing Republican-friendly about that poll. Sure, they also released a lot of bad polls in 2016, but so did PPP. Dismissing or "unskewing" either poll just because you don’t like the result would be foolish, just include it in your polling average. I’m pretty sure that Tester +3 isn’t a more ridiculous result than Tester +13 (SurveyMonkey).

[MT Treasurer]

Not the best poll for Tester, but of course him leading by 3 makes this a Toss-Up, while a poll showing Cruz up by 2 doesn’t change the fact that TX is ultra safe titanium R #AtlasLogic

So one or two posters = Atlas? Last time I checked, most people still think MT and TX are both leaning toward the incumbent's party.

[MT Treasurer]

^What recent polling? SurveyMonkey (Tester +13/Blackburn +14)? Or Gravis (Tester +7/Williams +6/surprisingly Democratic-friendly results on a lot of issues)? Of those three, Remington is probably the most trustworthy pollster, although that’s a low bar. 

I think Tester is leading by 4-7 points right now in a race that definitely leans (strongly) D, but perhaps I’m underestimating how Democratic/populist Montana is.