Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 06, 2019, 01:33:37 pm
News: 2020 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  TN-PPP (D): Bredesen+3
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: TN-PPP (D): Bredesen+3  (Read 2514 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,948
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 13, 2018, 10:11:40 am »

July 10-11, 583 likely voters:

44% Bredesen (D)
41% Blackburn (R)
15% Undecided

Bredesen: 42-37 favourable
Blackburn: 33-46 unfavourable

https://eu.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/tn-elections/2018/07/13/democratic-aligned-pac-poll-phil-bredesen-marsha-blackburn-tennessee-senate-race/781031002
Logged
Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,304
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 13, 2018, 10:12:27 am »

But SurveyMonkey told me this race is Blackburn by 14!
Logged
KingSweden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,256
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 13, 2018, 10:12:34 am »

Correct me if wrong - slightly down from PPP’s last poll here, yeah?
Logged
Lean Branson
Doctor Imperialism
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,036


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 13, 2018, 10:13:45 am »

Those Blackburn unfavorables, hrm.
Logged
Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,304
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 13, 2018, 10:14:45 am »

Correct me if wrong - slightly down from PPP’s last poll here, yeah?

PPP's last poll was 46-43 Bredesen, so the exact same margin with more undecideds which is pretty strange. Normally there's a decline in undecideds the closer you are to e-day.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,948
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 13, 2018, 10:15:45 am »

Correct me if wrong - slightly down from PPP’s last poll here, yeah?

According to Wikipedia, the last PPP poll from late April/early May was also Bredesen+3 (but 46-43).
Logged
The Saint
TheSaint250
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,858


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 13, 2018, 10:19:16 am »

It is a D internal, but nevertheless, if there is going to be a surprise result (whether an unexpected victory or an extremely close race ending in the way everyone expected), this will be it.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,948
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 13, 2018, 10:24:29 am »

New Poll: Tennessee Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2018-07-11

Summary: D: 44%, R: 41%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,000
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 13, 2018, 10:47:16 am »

^Hmm

Not for now.

I'm only focusing on states which have no polls entered so far. The polls will only start getting interesting and meanigful in early October anyway.

And because there are no more elections in Austria this year, I will have some time to follow the US-midterms more closely starting in September or October. I can enter some polls then.

And why didn’t you add the Montana poll to the database? Very selective!
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,948
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 13, 2018, 10:53:43 am »

^Hmm

Not for now.

I'm only focusing on states which have no polls entered so far. The polls will only start getting interesting and meanigful in early October anyway.

And because there are no more elections in Austria this year, I will have some time to follow the US-midterms more closely starting in September or October. I can enter some polls then.

And why didn’t you add the Montana poll to the database? Very selective!

Because I'm not adding every poll that comes out.

Someone else can do it as well.

Besides, I was removed as moderator for crappy reasons, so you can be happy when I'm even adding a few polls here and then ...
Logged
john cage bubblegum
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 361


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 13, 2018, 11:13:55 am »

Seems like this race is still where's it been for awhile - a toss-up if you're just looking at the polling, but Lean R if you take into account how heavily R the state is.  Hopefully we can get polls with fewer undecideds as we get closer to the election.
Logged
Andy Beshear Have My Babies
DTC
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,206


Political Matrix
E: 9.53, S: 10.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: July 13, 2018, 11:22:34 am »

Both of the favorable numbers are way lower than I expected.

Why do people hate Blackburn so much in TN?
Logged
KingSweden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,256
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: July 13, 2018, 11:26:15 am »

Both of the favorable numbers are way lower than I expected.

Why do people hate Blackburn so much in TN?

She’s the worst kind of preening hack politician, and it shows. And she’s spent the equivalent of a used car to get her favorables up
Logged
Cory Booker
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29,388
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: July 13, 2018, 11:39:03 am »

Great news😀
Logged
Bagel23
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,827
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: July 13, 2018, 11:44:02 am »

I still wish that I was on old rock top
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,654
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: July 13, 2018, 12:06:36 pm »

My guess is still that Republicans will come home for Blackburn, but if Democrats should be worried about FL, Republicans should be worried about this race.
Logged
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,904
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: July 13, 2018, 01:52:46 pm »

FL has had almost zero high quality polling. The one good poll by NBC had Nelson up 4
Logged
Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,039


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: July 13, 2018, 02:01:42 pm »

100% not happening. All the right-leaning independents will come home for Blackburn (#NeverTrump-style). A 3-pt. margin isn't enough to overcome that. Plus, this is a Dem internal. Straight to the trash, baby.
Logged
KingSweden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,256
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: July 13, 2018, 02:07:40 pm »

I still wish that I was on old rock top

Damnit now that song will be in my head the rest of the day
Logged
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,821
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: July 13, 2018, 02:26:13 pm »

PPP's commissioned polls for campaigns have always been just as accurate as their public release numbers, one of the few firms that can boast this.
Logged
libertpaulian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,273
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: July 13, 2018, 02:28:44 pm »

100% not happening. All the right-leaning independents will come home for Blackburn (#NeverTrump-style). A 3-pt. margin isn't enough to overcome that. Plus, this is a Dem internal. Straight to the trash, baby.
King Lear, is that you?
Logged
Suburban Cincinnati Soccer Moms for Beshear
Zyzz
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,841


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: July 13, 2018, 02:28:51 pm »

Bold prediction: Democrats pick up 4 seats AZ,NV,TX and TN while losing none. Democrats win the Senate 53-47. In waves the vast majority of toss up seats fall one way. Look at 2006, 2008 and especially 2014. I remember 2006 well, Democrats were at a worse deficit then they only had 45 seats. People said Democrats had no chance to win the Senate, how could they possible knock off a titan like George Allen in solid Republican Virginia? The wave brought in a lot of surprise victories.
Logged
KingSweden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,256
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: July 13, 2018, 02:41:02 pm »

Bold prediction: Democrats pick up 4 seats AZ,NV,TX and TN while losing none. Democrats win the Senate 53-47. In waves the vast majority of toss up seats fall one way. Look at 2006, 2008 and especially 2014. I remember 2006 well, Democrats were at a worse deficit then they only had 45 seats. People said Democrats had no chance to win the Senate, how could they possible knock off a titan like George Allen in solid Republican Virginia? The wave brought in a lot of surprise victories.


A yes. Unbeatable Titan George Allen, at one time the 2008 GOP frontrunner
Logged
Scott 🤡🌏
Ascott
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,100
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -7.48

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: July 13, 2018, 02:45:40 pm »

Lol.  If Bredesen wins this election while Nelson loses his, I think I'll drink cow jizz.
Logged
Suburban Cincinnati Soccer Moms for Beshear
Zyzz
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,841


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: July 13, 2018, 02:48:53 pm »

Bold prediction: Democrats pick up 4 seats AZ,NV,TX and TN while losing none. Democrats win the Senate 53-47. In waves the vast majority of toss up seats fall one way. Look at 2006, 2008 and especially 2014. I remember 2006 well, Democrats were at a worse deficit then they only had 45 seats. People said Democrats had no chance to win the Senate, how could they possible knock off a titan like George Allen in solid Republican Virginia? The wave brought in a lot of surprise victories.


A yes. Unbeatable Titan George Allen, at one time the 2008 GOP frontrunner

How fast things change.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC