Sanders vs. Trump

[Nyssus]

United States presidential election, 2020

Tuesday, November 3, 2020

Candidates:

Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT)/Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA): 314 EV, 54%

President Donald Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN): 224 EV, 42%

Others: 0 EV, 4%

Closest States:

States where the margin of victory was under 1%

1. Indiana, 0.21%

2. Nevada, 0.45%

3. Montana, 0.89%

States where the margin of victory was 1-5%

1. Virginia, 2.33%

2. Florida, 4.01%

3. Colorado, 4.99%

States where the margin of victory was 5-10%

1. Missouri, 6.07%

2. New Mexico, 6.99%

3. North Carolina, 7.66%

4. Iowa, 8.04%

5. Arizona, 9.00%

6. Kansas, 9.87%

7. South Dakota, 9.98%

How do you think 2020 would go with this matchup? Post your maps below.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

[here2view]

He's not winning Indiana, especially with Pence on the other ticket.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT) / Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) - 298 EVs, 53%

President Donald Trump (R-NY) / Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN) - 240 EVs, 46%

[TarHeelDem]

Bernie wins all the Obama 2012 states plus North Carolina.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Lol

[TML]

As long as Sanders doesn't become a more establishment-type figure, I think he has the potential to win 450+ EV.

[Fairly Left Wing]

I think Sanders has the potential to become Reagan. Seen as extreme it’s than get elected and be remembered fondly by the party. I think if a recession occurs and North Korea refuses to de-nuclearize, Bernie will win something like this:

Note: I don’t think Iowa, or Ohio will be 30% but I just want to show how close those two will be.

But also, I think sanders will win a comfortable enough defeat but not a big landslide.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Trump is not winning Georgia by more than 10 points. Even if the Romney-Clinton whites in the affluent ATL suburbs go back home to Trump he’s not winning by more than 7.

[Burke Bro]

I'd imagine a map similar to the 2012 one (minus Florida, perhaps).

[foxh8er]

As long as Sanders doesn't become a more establishment-type figure, I think he has the potential to win 450+ EV.

I genuinely cannot tell if this is sarcasm. What's the reasoning?

[TML]

As long as Sanders doesn't become a more establishment-type figure, I think he has the potential to win 450+ EV.

I genuinely cannot tell if this is sarcasm. What's the reasoning?

Polls from 2016 indicated that Sanders was consistently leading Trump by 10+% in a hypothetical matchup between those two. That would easily translate to 400+ EVs, if not more.

[RINO Tom]

Sorry, Hagrid!

[Inmate Trump]

Sanders: 284
Trump: 254

[American_Aristocracy]

United States presidential election, 2020

Tuesday, November 3, 2020

Candidates:

Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT)/Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA): 314 EV, 54%

President Donald Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN): 224 EV, 42%

Others: 0 EV, 4%

Closest States:

States where the margin of victory was under 1%

1. Indiana, 0.21%

2. Nevada, 0.45%

3. Montana, 0.89%

States where the margin of victory was 1-5%

1. Virginia, 2.33%

2. Florida, 4.01%

3. Colorado, 4.99%

States where the margin of victory was 5-10%

1. Missouri, 6.07%

2. New Mexico, 6.99%

3. North Carolina, 7.66%

4. Iowa, 8.04%

5. Arizona, 9.00%

6. Kansas, 9.87%

7. South Dakota, 9.98%

How do you think 2020 would go with this matchup? Post your maps below.

How does Indiana flip after Ohio and Iowa but not Florida, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina plus a vast array of other states? I can't contemplate something like that happening in a presidential election

[twenty42]

United States presidential election, 2020

Tuesday, November 3, 2020

Candidates:

Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT)/Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA): 314 EV, 54%

President Donald Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN): 224 EV, 42%

Others: 0 EV, 4%

Closest States:

States where the margin of victory was under 1%

1. Indiana, 0.21%

2. Nevada, 0.45%

3. Montana, 0.89%

States where the margin of victory was 1-5%

1. Virginia, 2.33%

2. Florida, 4.01%

3. Colorado, 4.99%

States where the margin of victory was 5-10%

1. Missouri, 6.07%

2. New Mexico, 6.99%

3. North Carolina, 7.66%

4. Iowa, 8.04%

5. Arizona, 9.00%

6. Kansas, 9.87%

7. South Dakota, 9.98%

How do you think 2020 would go with this matchup? Post your maps below.

If Bernie is winning by 12 points nationally, he’s winning TX, NC, FL, GA, and AZ.

I’m in the vast minority around here, though...I think Bernie would be a disastrous candidate to run against Trump. His age and far-left ideology would be two big strikes, but people also forget that he was somewhat of a darling in 2016 and never really got hit with anything hard. Going against an incumbent Trump in a GE is a whole different ballgame than a cute little primary overperformance that was mathematically doomed anyway. I can see him easily becoming a caricature once his skeletons are put on display, and I really don’t think he has the communication skills to overcome the inevitable rough patches.

[Ferguson97]

I'm probably in the minority, but I dislike Sanders a lot. I think he'd probably win, as would most Democrats, but I disagree with him on trade and foreign policy so I don't want him to be the nominee.

[foxh8er]

As long as Sanders doesn't become a more establishment-type figure, I think he has the potential to win 450+ EV.

I genuinely cannot tell if this is sarcasm. What's the reasoning?

Polls from 2016 indicated that Sanders was consistently leading Trump by 10+% in a hypothetical matchup between those two. That would easily translate to 400+ EVs, if not more.

Polls involving a candidate who was never attacked aren't terribly predictive.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If there it's a wave election, in 2018, there's no need for Biden or Sanders to run: Booker, Harris or Gillibrand can certainly win with a Democratic controlled Congress.

[Nyssus]

United States presidential election, 2020

Tuesday, November 3, 2020

Candidates:

Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT)/Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA): 314 EV, 54%

President Donald Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN): 224 EV, 42%

Others: 0 EV, 4%

Closest States:

States where the margin of victory was under 1%

1. Indiana, 0.21%

2. Nevada, 0.45%

3. Montana, 0.89%

States where the margin of victory was 1-5%

1. Virginia, 2.33%

2. Florida, 4.01%

3. Colorado, 4.99%

States where the margin of victory was 5-10%

1. Missouri, 6.07%

2. New Mexico, 6.99%

3. North Carolina, 7.66%

4. Iowa, 8.04%

5. Arizona, 9.00%

6. Kansas, 9.87%

7. South Dakota, 9.98%

How do you think 2020 would go with this matchup? Post your maps below.

How does Indiana flip after Ohio and Iowa but not Florida, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina plus a vast array of other states? I can't contemplate something like that happening in a presidential election

In a normal situation, you would be absolutely correct. However, I think Sanders appeals more to the blue collar working class voters of the Rust Belt, and less to the moderates and minorities in Southern states like Florida, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, etc.

[ON Progressive]

There is no way Sanders (or any Dem nominee that's remotely realistic, for that manner) is winning Indiana and barely losing Montana but also only winning Nevada by .45% and getting destroyed in FL, NC, and AZ.

[BlueSwan]

Unless the economy is tanking, I don't think Sanders can win. He'll scare all of the moderate republicans way more than Trump scares then. Johnson 2016 voters vpte Trump in 2020 if Sanders is the alternative. People totally forget how easy it is to scaremonger against a selfconfessed socialist in a general election. Democrats would be fools to nominate Sanders.

[twenty42]

Unless the economy is tanking, I don't think Sanders can win. He'll scare all of the moderate republicans way more than Trump scares then. Johnson 2016 voters vpte Trump in 2020 if Sanders is the alternative. People totally forget how easy it is to scaremonger against a selfconfessed socialist in a general election. Democrats would be fools to nominate Sanders.

Exactly. Also remember that his unabashed leftism was seen as refreshing and inspiring within the Democratic Party, but he will inevitably and awkwardly forced to move toward the middle once summer moves into fall. I think it’s fair to assume we’d be bombarded with clips of him promising to raise taxes, and he’ll have to come up with an answer for middle-class, middle-aged suburbanites who are doing just fine financially.

I think a smaller though not nonexistent problem for Bernie would be black turnout. AA’s overwhelmingly supported Hillary in the 2016 Dem primary, and I’m not sure what kind of inroads Bernie has made with the group since then. I’m not going to make a crazy claim like that Trump would win 20% of AA’s against him, but low black turnout could sink him in a state like PA.

[Zaybay]

Unless the economy is tanking, I don't think Sanders can win. He'll scare all of the moderate republicans way more than Trump scares then. Johnson 2016 voters vpte Trump in 2020 if Sanders is the alternative. People totally forget how easy it is to scaremonger against a selfconfessed socialist in a general election. Democrats would be fools to nominate Sanders.

I find it hard to believe that labeling someone a socialist in an age where Milenials and Gen Xers like the ideology as much as Capitalism against an unpopular Republican, in an election where the only thing Sanders would have to do, win the 3 Rust belt states, where Trump won by less than a percent and has tanked popularity wise, where his message would find a lot of appeal, would be a "foolish" decision.

Also, polling has shown that 90% of Rs approve of Trump, is it really worth it to go after that 10% of moderate Rs. I seem to remember a candidate doing that, and losing, embarrassingly.

[Zaybay]

Since I dont have the time to use Atlas Mapping, I did one with 270.

I did not use atlas colors, and only used leaning/safe
Safe means more than 10%
lean means less than 10%
This is for the economy stagnating, the best result for Trump, since expansions dont last forever.


Edit:ME at large is lean D, dont know why its not showing that.