Ross Perot and Independent Candidates
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  Ross Perot and Independent Candidates
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Author Topic: Ross Perot and Independent Candidates  (Read 1052 times)
Jersey Jimmy
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« on: July 17, 2018, 01:11:13 AM »

Speaking as someone who wasn't even alive in 1992 and didn't pay attention to a presidential election until 2012, the idea of an independent candidate taking almost 20% of the popular vote is insane to me. Could something like that ever happen again without a major political shakeup?

By the way, mods, feel free to move this to a different forum if it fits better.
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jfern
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« Reply #1 on: July 17, 2018, 01:20:44 AM »

Well, he would have gotten even more if he wasn't a dumbass who dropped out when he was leading in the polls.
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uti2
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« Reply #2 on: July 17, 2018, 01:38:15 AM »

Yes, imagine if the GOP had actually tried to narrow the field in 2015 and rallied behind Jeb, the standard-bearer at the time and as a consequence Trump drops out of the "rigged" primary and runs as an independent.  Trump was polling at such a margin.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/248616-poll-trump-third-party-run-would-hurt-jeb-bush
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Peanut
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« Reply #3 on: July 17, 2018, 07:34:02 AM »

Perot was, indeed, leading in the polls before he dropped out. But third parties often poll better than they actually end up recieving. And besides, his strength was concentrated in the wrong States (the only ones where he came in second were Utah and Maine,) States that went strongly to either Bush or Clinton. I'm not sure on this, but doesn't he have the largest percentage ever without getting any EVs?

And why couldn't it happen again? A lot of people don't like the Parties as they currently are. With a more unpopular Trump (NOT Trump with his current approvals) I could see a John Anderson-style run come 2020.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #4 on: December 04, 2018, 03:21:55 AM »

Perot was, indeed, leading in the polls before he dropped out. But third parties often poll better than they actually end up recieving. And besides, his strength was concentrated in the wrong States (the only ones where he came in second were Utah and Maine,) States that went strongly to either Bush or Clinton. I'm not sure on this, but doesn't he have the largest percentage ever without getting any EVs?

And why couldn't it happen again? A lot of people don't like the Parties as they currently are. With a more unpopular Trump (NOT Trump with his current approvals) I could see a John Anderson-style run come 2020.

Yes, Perot is indeed the highest a candidate ever earned with no electoral votes. Although to be fair, he almost did get one in Maine. And also to be fair, Stephen Douglas came dangerously close to getting no electoral votes despite gathering THIRTY percent of the vote. A swing of 5000 votes would have given Douglas 0 electoral votes.

What I am more interested in is why there wasn't at least one person who faithlessly elected him
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pops
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« Reply #5 on: December 04, 2018, 04:07:56 AM »

Of course it could happen. Expect it in the next 50 years at most. Ross Perot was able to do so well largely off of good debates and the fact that he bought primetime TV Slots to talk about how he was going to fix the economy. It's easy to see Bloomberg having done that in 2016, 2008, or 2004, Romney having done that in 2016, 2012, or 2008, or Cuban doing that in 2020 or beyond. All it takes is a wealthy independent candidate who knows how to campaign.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #6 on: December 04, 2018, 04:18:52 AM »

Of course it could happen. Expect it in the next 50 years at most. Ross Perot was able to do so well largely off of good debates and the fact that he bought primetime TV Slots to talk about how he was going to fix the economy. It's easy to see Bloomberg having done that in 2016, 2008, or 2004, Romney having done that in 2016, 2012, or 2008, or Cuban doing that in 2020 or beyond. All it takes is a wealthy independent candidate who knows how to campaign.

I wondered how things would have been if Trump did his 2012 independent bid that he wanted to do initially. I wonder if he would catch the magic perot did
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Dukakisite1988
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« Reply #7 on: December 04, 2018, 08:23:26 AM »

We're actually now in an unusually long period without a major third force in a presidential election.
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