Is New York Trending Repubican

[Da2017]

Trump improved in upstate New York. New York trended Republican from 2012. There is a good chance democrats are going to nominate someone with no connections.

[Zaybay]

Its unlikely to continue the R trend.

New York has two areas, Upstate, and The city.

The city has a population of 8.8 Million, upstate 11 Million.

The problem of NY trending R is twofold.

1. The city is growing slugishly, upstate is declining
2. Elasticity

The first point speaks for itself. While NY city is still gaining people, albiet at a sluggish rate, the upstate area is rapidly declining. Its like a part of the rustbelt, old factories, mill towns, etc. NY is going to lose a Congressional seat next census, and that loss is not from NY, but from upstate. While NY city only represents around 40%, it could easily represent 50%, or even 60% in the coming decades.

The people upstate are not just rural Rs, however, they are rural Ds. What does this mean? This means that they share characteristics with the rurals of NE and the rustbelt. They are socially moderate/conservative, but big fans of economic leftism. The decline in Upstate NY can be seen as well in the loss of ME's second district, and the loss of rural NH that helped keep the state above 5% for Obama 2 times. The thing is now, however, that Democrats, especially presidential ones, are tapping into this economic need, and are reflecting the needs of these people well. Its highly probable that these areas will swing heavily back to the Ds, especially since Trump seems to have forgone his economics populism in favor of GOP orthodoxy.

So, will NY trend R? Yes, maybe 2 or 3% overall. Will it trend more than that? Not likely.

[cvparty]

Its unlikely to continue the R trend.

New York has two areas, Upstate, and The city.

The city has a population of 8.8 Million, upstate 11 Million.

The problem of NY trending R is twofold.

1. The city is growing slugishly, upstate is declining
2. Elasticity

The first point speaks for itself. While NY city is still gaining people, albiet at a sluggish rate, the upstate area is rapidly declining. Its like a part of the rustbelt, old factories, mill towns, etc. NY is going to lose a Congressional seat next census, and that loss is not from NY, but from upstate. While NY city only represents around 40%, it could easily represent 50%, or even 60% in the coming decades.

The people upstate are not just rural Rs, however, they are rural Ds. What does this mean? This means that they share characteristics with the rurals of NE and the rustbelt. They are socially moderate/conservative, but big fans of economic leftism. The decline in Upstate NY can be seen as well in the loss of ME's second district, and the loss of rural NH that helped keep the state above 5% for Obama 2 times. The thing is now, however, that Democrats, especially presidential ones, are tapping into this economic need, and are reflecting the needs of these people well. Its highly probable that these areas will swing heavily back to the Ds, especially since Trump seems to have forgone his economics populism in favor of GOP orthodoxy.

So, will NY trend R? Yes, maybe 2 or 3% overall. Will it trend more than that? Not likely.

everything either trends D or stays the same in your eyes lol

[Zaybay]

Its unlikely to continue the R trend.

New York has two areas, Upstate, and The city.

The city has a population of 8.8 Million, upstate 11 Million.

The problem of NY trending R is twofold.

1. The city is growing slugishly, upstate is declining
2. Elasticity

The first point speaks for itself. While NY city is still gaining people, albiet at a sluggish rate, the upstate area is rapidly declining. Its like a part of the rustbelt, old factories, mill towns, etc. NY is going to lose a Congressional seat next census, and that loss is not from NY, but from upstate. While NY city only represents around 40%, it could easily represent 50%, or even 60% in the coming decades.

The people upstate are not just rural Rs, however, they are rural Ds. What does this mean? This means that they share characteristics with the rurals of NE and the rustbelt. They are socially moderate/conservative, but big fans of economic leftism. The decline in Upstate NY can be seen as well in the loss of ME's second district, and the loss of rural NH that helped keep the state above 5% for Obama 2 times. The thing is now, however, that Democrats, especially presidential ones, are tapping into this economic need, and are reflecting the needs of these people well. Its highly probable that these areas will swing heavily back to the Ds, especially since Trump seems to have forgone his economics populism in favor of GOP orthodoxy.

So, will NY trend R? Yes, maybe 2 or 3% overall. Will it trend more than that? Not likely.

everything either trends D or stays the same in your eyes lol

So whats your reasoning then? I always explain my thoughts.

Also, its hard to give a state that is R trending due to the fact that they are losing more members than they are gaining overall. Of course, if the party changes track, then I could name many states that would flip, but they cant keep going the way they are.

[Skill and Chance]

Yes, but some of it is a Trump homestate effect.  It could swing significantly to Trump in a close 2020 election if the Dem nominee doesn't also have an NY connection next time.

[Free Bird]

Put it this way. Even with both nominees being from New York, without NYC, Trump would've lost the state by just 4000 votes. It's at least worth keeping an eye on, even if NYC statehood is a pipedream.

[Zaybay]

I highly doubt that a "homestate effect" has anything to do with Trump's Upstate performance.

^
Last I checked, Arkansas didnt go crazy for Hillary, and neither did NY. It was really just a shift in upstate NY, one that Ive already addressed is likely not permanent, and if it is, likely not to change the state.

[Del Tachi]

Probably.  Upstate NY will continue to trend GOP whereas NYC is pretty much already maxed-out for the Dems.  Population change will mitigate these trends though.

[Tekken_Guy]

No. There’s still a lot of room to grow. Westchester could be voting like Contra Costa soon at the rate the GOP is alienating college-educated whites and with the generational replacement. Assuming Trump is the GOP nominee again and there’s no major third party, almost all of the third party vote in 2016 will be going to the Democrat in 2020 (at least certainly in the NYC suburbs).

[136or142]

I think there are three areas: there's also Long Island.  Outside of Brooklyn, why would you consider Long Island (Nassau County and Suffolk County) to be part of greater New York?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I think there are three areas: there's also Long Island.  Outside of Brooklyn, why would you consider Long Island (Nassau County and Suffolk County) to be part of greater New York?

Absolutely. There are really 3 areas:

Urban NYC (New York, Kings, Queens, Bronx): 7,706,403 people--84% Clinton, 16% Trump

Suburban NYC (Richmond, Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Rockland): 4,562,412 people--52% Clinton, 48% Trump

Upstate NY (The Rest): 7,109,287 people--52% Trump, 48% Clinton

NYC could maybe hit 90% Dem, but that would be hard. Upstate will continue trending R. It's the suburbs that will determine the trend, and there seems to be a split in trend between the Westchester area vs Staten/Long Islands.

[King of Kensington]

I highly doubt that a "homestate effect" has anything to do with Trump's Upstate performance.

Gave him a boost in Long Island and Staten Island though.

[Skill and Chance]

I think there are three areas: there's also Long Island.  Outside of Brooklyn, why would you consider Long Island (Nassau County and Suffolk County) to be part of greater New York?

Absolutely. There are really 3 areas:

Urban NYC (New York, Kings, Queens, Bronx): 7,706,403 people--84% Clinton, 16% Trump

Suburban NYC (Richmond, Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Rockland): 4,562,412 people--52% Clinton, 48% Trump

Upstate NY (The Rest): 7,109,287 people--52% Trump, 48% Clinton

NYC could maybe hit 90% Dem, but that would be hard. Upstate will continue trending R. It's the suburbs that will determine the trend, and there seems to be a split in trend between the Westchester area vs Staten/Long Islands.

This actually makes my point quite well.  If Upstate eventually goes 60%+ R, there aren't enough people left to flip in NYC to counter it. 

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I think there are three areas: there's also Long Island.  Outside of Brooklyn, why would you consider Long Island (Nassau County and Suffolk County) to be part of greater New York?

Absolutely. There are really 3 areas:

Urban NYC (New York, Kings, Queens, Bronx): 7,706,403 people--84% Clinton, 16% Trump

Suburban NYC (Richmond, Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Rockland): 4,562,412 people--52% Clinton, 48% Trump

Upstate NY (The Rest): 7,109,287 people--52% Trump, 48% Clinton

NYC could maybe hit 90% Dem, but that would be hard. Upstate will continue trending R. It's the suburbs that will determine the trend, and there seems to be a split in trend between the Westchester area vs Staten/Long Islands.

The Bronx, Brooklyn and Queens are actually mixed between urban and suburban.

The farther away from Manhattan you go, the more surburban it gets and the closer to Manhattan you go, the more urban it gets. This applies to all 3 boroughs (The Bronx, Brooklyn & Queens).

[King of Kensington]

Eastern Queens has a pretty suburban character, but it's really hard to call the Bronx and Brooklyn "suburban" IMO.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Eastern Queens has a pretty suburban character, but it's really hard to call the Bronx and Brooklyn "suburban" IMO.

Um, you obviously didn't see the part where I say that they are "mixed".

I live in Brooklyn, I know what I'm talking about.

[King of Kensington]

Hey, there's no need to be a prick.   The Bronx and Brooklyn are among the most "urban" places in the US outside of Manhattan itself.  Philadelphia, Chicago, DC etc. are "mixed" too if you're going to make that argument.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Hey, there's no need to be a prick.   The Bronx and Brooklyn are among the most "urban" places in the US outside of Manhattan itself.  Philadelphia, Chicago, DC etc. are "mixed" too if you're going to make that argument.

Huh? How was I being a prick lol?. I wasn't and if you felt that I was then, that wasn't my intention.

Also, The Bronx and Brooklyn are urban of course. However, if you drive a few more minutes then you'll find yourself in neighborhoods where it looks just like many suburbs in America (i.e. Riverdale in The Bronx and Mill Basin in Brooklyn).

You also can't compare NYC to other cities. The 5 boroughs are connected by bridges, underground subway tunnels and a ferry. There's also a reason why those of us who live in the outer boroughs often say that "we're going into the city" when we're going to Manhattan.

That's because Manhattan is not just urbanized but COMPLETELY urbanized. There are no parts of Manhattan where you can find suburban like homes like how you can find in the outer boroughs.

In a way, the outer boroughs are suburbs of Manhattan.

Up until 1898, Manhattan was exclusively "New York City". Brooklyn was a completely seperate city, The Bronx was apart of Westchester County and Queens was apart of Nassau County. In 1898, there was consolidation that made Brooklyn renounce it's city status, a part of Nassau County would break away and become Queens, and a part of Westchester County would break away and become The Bronx. This is how the 5 boroughs and modern NYC came to be.

[Nyssus]

New York will continue to trend R until the next realignment. NYC is growing, albeit at a fairly slow rate. Manhattan continues to trend D, while the other boroughs have a slight R trend. Dems are close to maxing out in Manhattan and the Bronx. However, there is still room for them to increase their vote percentages in Nassau and Westchester, two wealthy counties that are still trending D. Suffolk County, which encompasses the majority of Long Island, including the Hamptons, is trending R.

As a resident of Upstate, I've experienced our decline firsthand - cities that were once prosperous (Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, etc.) are quickly losing population. Factories are closing, corporations are leaving the region, and the people generally feel that the governments of Albany and Washington are out-of-touch with their problems. Many counties that had not voted Republican in over a decade voted for Trump. We're becoming more and more like the Midwest, both economically and demographically. Many suburbs that once voted Democratic are now voting Republican.

This doesn't mean that New York will vote Republican in 10 years, or even 20 years. The state as a whole may swing D in 2020. However, Upstate will continue to lose population, NYC will grow slowly, and the margin will begin to narrow significantly. A Democrat who would normally get ~60% of the popular vote in New York may only get ~55% of the vote in 10 or 15 years. NYC, Nassau, and Westchester will keep NY in the D column for the next decade or two. However, over the long term, New York may become a swing state or even vote Republican (I'm talking 30-60+ years in the future).

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

New York will continue to trend R until the next realignment. NYC is growing, albeit at a fairly slow rate. Manhattan continues to trend D, while the other boroughs have a slight R trend. Dems are close to maxing out in Manhattan and the Bronx. However, there is still room for them to increase their vote percentages in Nassau and Westchester, two wealthy counties that are still trending D. Suffolk County, which encompasses the majority of Long Island, including the Hamptons, is trending R.

As a resident of Upstate, I've experienced our decline firsthand - cities that were once prosperous (Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, etc.) are quickly losing population. Factories are closing, corporations are leaving the region, and the people generally feel that the governments of Albany and Washington are out-of-touch with their problems. Many counties that had not voted Republican in over a decade voted for Trump. We're becoming more and more like the Midwest, both economically and demographically. Many suburbs that once voted Democratic are now voting Republican.

This doesn't mean that New York will vote Republican in 10 years, or even 20 years. The state as a whole may swing D in 2020. However, Upstate will continue to lose population, NYC will grow slowly, and the margin will begin to narrow significantly. A Democrat who would normally get ~60% of the popular vote in New York may only get ~55% of the vote in 10 or 15 years. NYC, Nassau, and Westchester will keep NY in the D column for the next decade or two. However, over the long term, New York may become a swing state or even vote Republican (I'm talking 30-60+ years in the future).

Yep, all the signs of a Democratic decline are right there. The city cannot keep up the growth pace, not with housing prices being as they are. Not Bay Area level yet, but getting there.

[Fuzzy Bear]

A certain amount of this depends on Jewish voters.

Jewish voters make up a significant percentage of the vote in the suburban counties of New York, as well as NYC.  They are, for the most part, more culturally liberal than their non-Jewish counterparts (particularly their Catholic counterparts) and they are not as heavily Democratic as blacks and Hispanics are (although many Republican Jews in Greater NY are not in sync with the GOP's social policies nationally).  Nassau County has long been the more steadfast Republican County in LOCAL politics, but it has always been more NATIONALLY Democratic than next-door Suffolk County, which has always been more Catholic (and less Jewish) and more culturally conservative (although Suffolk has elected more LOCAL Democrats to important offices over the last 30 years).

What would tip NY toward the GOP would be a continuing shift toward anti-Israel policies, including the increasing embrace of the "Zionism is Racism" crowd by the Democratic Left.  Jewish voters have, to date, remained in the Democratic Party because of their social liberalism, but one wonders what would happen if, say, a 2020 Democratic Presidential Candidate advocated removing our Embassy from Jerusalem, and was caught signing off on the "Zionism is Racism" proposition, even if it was a sub silentio sign-off.  I cannot believe that Jewish voters in New York, and in all of America, for that matter, will tolerate endless shifts away from a pro-Israel foreign policy by Democrats without some serious blowback at the polls occurring in places like NY.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A certain amount of this depends on Jewish voters.

Jewish voters make up a significant percentage of the vote in the suburban counties of New York, as well as NYC.  They are, for the most part, more culturally liberal than their non-Jewish counterparts (particularly their Catholic counterparts) and they are not as heavily Democratic as blacks and Hispanics are (although many Republican Jews in Greater NY are not in sync with the GOP's social policies nationally).

Rockland County is 30% Jewish - more than any other county or county-equivalent in the United States.

[DC Al Fine]

Its unlikely to continue the R trend.

New York has two areas, Upstate, and The city.

The city has a population of 8.8 Million, upstate 11 Million.

The problem of NY trending R is twofold.

1. The city is growing slugishly, upstate is declining
2. Elasticity

The first point speaks for itself. While NY city is still gaining people, albiet at a sluggish rate, the upstate area is rapidly declining. Its like a part of the rustbelt, old factories, mill towns, etc. NY is going to lose a Congressional seat next census, and that loss is not from NY, but from upstate. While NY city only represents around 40%, it could easily represent 50%, or even 60% in the coming decades.

The people upstate are not just rural Rs, however, they are rural Ds. What does this mean? This means that they share characteristics with the rurals of NE and the rustbelt. They are socially moderate/conservative, but big fans of economic leftism. The decline in Upstate NY can be seen as well in the loss of ME's second district, and the loss of rural NH that helped keep the state above 5% for Obama 2 times. The thing is now, however, that Democrats, especially presidential ones, are tapping into this economic need, and are reflecting the needs of these people well. Its highly probable that these areas will swing heavily back to the Ds, especially since Trump seems to have forgone his economics populism in favor of GOP orthodoxy.

So, will NY trend R? Yes, maybe 2 or 3% overall. Will it trend more than that? Not likely.

everything either trends D or stays the same in your eyes lol

So whats your reasoning then? I always explain my thoughts.

Also, its hard to give a state that is R trending due to the fact that they are losing more members than they are gaining overall. Of course, if the party changes track, then I could name many states that would flip, but they cant keep going the way they are.

FYI, the definition of trend is change in margin in the state vs change in national margin, so unless demographic change is absolutely uniform, something has to be trending GOP, even if things are quite bleak for the right overall.

[Zaybay]

Its unlikely to continue the R trend.

New York has two areas, Upstate, and The city.

The city has a population of 8.8 Million, upstate 11 Million.

The problem of NY trending R is twofold.

1. The city is growing slugishly, upstate is declining
2. Elasticity

The first point speaks for itself. While NY city is still gaining people, albiet at a sluggish rate, the upstate area is rapidly declining. Its like a part of the rustbelt, old factories, mill towns, etc. NY is going to lose a Congressional seat next census, and that loss is not from NY, but from upstate. While NY city only represents around 40%, it could easily represent 50%, or even 60% in the coming decades.

The people upstate are not just rural Rs, however, they are rural Ds. What does this mean? This means that they share characteristics with the rurals of NE and the rustbelt. They are socially moderate/conservative, but big fans of economic leftism. The decline in Upstate NY can be seen as well in the loss of ME's second district, and the loss of rural NH that helped keep the state above 5% for Obama 2 times. The thing is now, however, that Democrats, especially presidential ones, are tapping into this economic need, and are reflecting the needs of these people well. Its highly probable that these areas will swing heavily back to the Ds, especially since Trump seems to have forgone his economics populism in favor of GOP orthodoxy.

So, will NY trend R? Yes, maybe 2 or 3% overall. Will it trend more than that? Not likely.

everything either trends D or stays the same in your eyes lol

So whats your reasoning then? I always explain my thoughts.

Also, its hard to give a state that is R trending due to the fact that they are losing more members than they are gaining overall. Of course, if the party changes track, then I could name many states that would flip, but they cant keep going the way they are.

FYI, the definition of trend is change in margin in the state vs change in national margin, so unless demographic change is absolutely uniform, something has to be trending GOP, even if things are quite bleak for the right overall.

Yeah, I know. My map had many states trend to the GOP, like CA, MA, MD, FL, and so on. I just think that most states will trend D, and NY is one of them, due to what appears to be a swing back to the Dems in Upstate, and the continued growth of NYC, percentage wise, compared to the state.

[King of Kensington]

Also, Orthodox, traditional and immigrant Jews make up a larger portion of Jews in NY than in the US as a whole.