Rank Winning Campaigns from best to worst since 1968
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Author Topic: Rank Winning Campaigns from best to worst since 1968  (Read 3056 times)
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Computer89
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« on: July 17, 2018, 02:50:46 PM »

Rank them by how good you think they ran their campaign


1. Clinton 1992
2. Reagan 1980
3. Obama 2008
4. Obama 2012
5. Trump 2016
6. Bush 1988
7. Reagan 1984
8. Nixon 1972
9. Bush 2000
10. Bush 2004
11. Carter 1976
12. Clinton 1996
13. Nixon 1968
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #1 on: July 17, 2018, 03:06:03 PM »

Shouldn't Nixon 1972 be the absolute worst?  That campaign did orchestrate the Watergate break-ins which would ultimately lead to the downfall of the president
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Pericles
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« Reply #2 on: July 17, 2018, 05:22:08 PM »

Since there's no distinction between primary and general election campaigns, I'm giving people credit for more impressive primary victories. If need be I can come back and do separate primary campaigns & general election campaigns rankings.
 
1. Clinton 1992
2. Obama 2008
3. Reagan 1980
4. Carter 1976
5. Nixon 1968
6. Trump 2016
7. Reagan 1984
8. Bush 1988
9. Obama 2012
10. Bush 2000
11. Bush 2004
12. Nixon 1972
13. Clinton 1996

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Computer89
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« Reply #3 on: July 17, 2018, 06:04:35 PM »

Since there's no distinction between primary and general election campaigns, I'm giving people credit for more impressive primary victories. If need be I can come back and do separate primary campaigns & general election campaigns rankings.
  
1. Clinton 1992
2. Obama 2008
3. Reagan 1980
4. Carter 1976
5. Nixon 1968
6. Trump 2016
7. Reagan 1984
8. Bush 1988
9. Obama 2012
10. Bush 2000
11. Bush 2004
12. Nixon 1972
13. Clinton 1996




If you had to do primary these are my rankings:


1. Clinton 1992
2. Obama 2008
3. Carter 1976
4. Trump 2016
5. Reagan 1980            
6. Bush 1988                              
7. Bush 2000

In 1968 there really werent many primaries so I didnt count that one


General Election:

1. Reagan 1980
2. Clinton 1992
3. Obama 2012
4. Bush 1988
5. Trump 2016
6. Reagan 1984
7. Bush 2000
8. Obama 2008(He greatly underperformed)
9. Bush 2004
10. Nixon 1972(If you discount Watergate , if you dont this one is last)
11. Clinton 1996
12. Nixon 1968
13. Carter 1976(He nearly blew a 30 point lead)
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #4 on: July 17, 2018, 06:48:42 PM »

I'm honestly not sure how I would rank them but Trump 2016 is in dead last though. Sure, he won in an upset, but that was due to sheer luck and stumbling his way through the general election only to just barely in the three states that put him over the top.
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Pericles
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« Reply #5 on: July 17, 2018, 06:53:37 PM »

I'm honestly not sure how I would rank them but Trump 2016 is in dead last though. Sure, he won in an upset, but that was due to sheer luck and stumbling his way through the general election only to just barely in the three states that put him over the top.

I'd rank his general election campaign much lower than his primary campaign, which was actually impressive and he did give the GOP base what they wanted.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #6 on: July 17, 2018, 06:55:12 PM »

I'm honestly not sure how I would rank them but Trump 2016 is in dead last though. Sure, he won in an upset, but that was due to sheer luck and stumbling his way through the general election only to just barely in the three states that put him over the top.

I'd rank his general election campaign much lower than his primary campaign, which was actually impressive and he did give the GOP base what they wanted.

I could agree with that.
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« Reply #7 on: July 17, 2018, 08:16:21 PM »

1. Reagan 1980
2. Trump 2016
3. Clinton 1992
4. Obama 2012
5. Bush 1988
6. Reagan 1984
7. Obama 2008
8. Bush 2000
9. Bush 2004
10. Clinton 1996
11. Nixon 1968
12. Carter 1976
13. Nixon 1972
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #8 on: July 17, 2018, 09:31:16 PM »

General

1. Clinton 1992
2. Reagan 1980
3. Obama 2012
4. Nixon 1972
5. Obama 2008
6. Reagan 1984
7. Clinton 1996
8. Nixon 1968
9. G.W. Bush 2000
10. G.H.W. Bush 1988
11. Carter 1976
12. Trump 2016
13. G.W. Bush 2004

Primaries (1976-Present)

1. Carter 1976
2. Clinton 1992
3. Reagan 1980
4. Trump 2016
5. Obama 2008
6.  G.W. Bush 2000
7. G.H.W. Bush 1988
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dw93
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« Reply #9 on: July 17, 2018, 09:58:02 PM »
« Edited: July 17, 2018, 11:51:42 PM by dw93 »

General:

1. Clinton 1992
2. Reagan 1980
3. Obama 2008
4. Obama 2012
5. Reagan 1984
6. Bush 1988
7. Bush 2000
8. Nixon 1968
9. Trump 2016
10. Bush 2004
11. Clinton 1996
12. Carter 1976
13. Nixon 1972

Primaries:

1. Carter 1976
2. Clinton 1992
3. Obama 2008
4. Bush 1988
5. Reagan 1980
6. Bush 2000
7. Trump 2016 (He got the nomination due to divided opposition, free airtime by the media, and dumb luck.)
8. Nixon 1968 (there really was not much of a  primary)
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #10 on: July 17, 2018, 10:31:34 PM »

General:

1. Clinton 1992
2. Reagan 1980
3. Obama 2008
4. Obama 2012
5. Reagan 1984
6. Bush 1988
7. Bush 2000
8. Nixon 1968
9. Trump 2016
10. Bush 2004
11. Clinton 1996
12. Carter 1976
13. Nixon 1972

Primaries:

1. Carter 1976
2. Clinton 1992
3. Obama 2008
4. Reagan 1980
5. Bush 1988
6. Bush 2000
7. Trump 2016 (He got the nomination due to divided opposition, free airtime by the media, and dumb luck.)
8. Nixon 1968 (there really was not much of a  primary)

This is part of what got Carter over the top though, you cannot credit one and demonize the other just because one sounds nicer. And properly capitalize on that divide is a credit in and of itself.  Also knowing howto play the media is worth something too.

Contrast Obama who went on to only get the nomination thanks to delegates rather than the voters
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dw93
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« Reply #11 on: July 17, 2018, 10:58:46 PM »

General:

1. Clinton 1992
2. Reagan 1980
3. Obama 2008
4. Obama 2012
5. Reagan 1984
6. Bush 1988
7. Bush 2000
8. Nixon 1968
9. Trump 2016
10. Bush 2004
11. Clinton 1996
12. Carter 1976
13. Nixon 1972

Primaries:

1. Carter 1976
2. Clinton 1992
3. Obama 2008
4. Reagan 1980
5. Bush 1988
6. Bush 2000
7. Trump 2016 (He got the nomination due to divided opposition, free airtime by the media, and dumb luck.)
8. Nixon 1968 (there really was not much of a  primary)

This is part of what got Carter over the top though, you cannot credit one and demonize the other just because one sounds nicer. And properly capitalize on that divide is a credit in and of itself.  Also knowing howto play the media is worth something too.

Contrast Obama who went on to only get the nomination thanks to delegates rather than the voters

Carter was a virtual unknown when he first declared himself a candidate, whereas Trump was well known due to "The Apprentice" and his business career. The modern primary system was new in 1976, it was not in 2016 and Carter, to his credit, knew how to win with the modern primary system, the other Democrats that ran in 1976 did not. ABC (Anybody But Carter) didn't come until Carter practically secured the nomination, whereas with Trump, Never Trump Republicans were a thing early on in the primaries,  it's just that they couldn't get themselves to rally behind one candidate to defeat Trump. Had the Never Trumps rallied behind Rubio, Cruz, or Kasich, Trump would've never been a thing and the donors really screwed the pooch thinking Jeb! was a viable candidate. whereas I think even with more unified opposition, Carter could still pull it off.
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Computer89
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« Reply #12 on: July 17, 2018, 11:46:56 PM »

General:

1. Clinton 1992
2. Reagan 1980
3. Obama 2008
4. Obama 2012
5. Reagan 1984
6. Bush 1988
7. Bush 2000
8. Nixon 1968
9. Trump 2016
10. Bush 2004
11. Clinton 1996
12. Carter 1976
13. Nixon 1972

Primaries:

1. Carter 1976
2. Clinton 1992
3. Obama 2008
4. Reagan 1980
5. Bush 1988
6. Bush 2000
7. Trump 2016 (He got the nomination due to divided opposition, free airtime by the media, and dumb luck.)
8. Nixon 1968 (there really was not much of a  primary)

I disagree that Reagan 1980 Primary Campaign was better than HW's 1988 one


Reagan unlike Bush in 1988 was considered inevitable for most of the previous year , was the odds-on favorite to win the nomination, and had like the Establishment support that year to(had the vast majority of endorsements) . This made Reagan complacent and cost Reagan Iowa which made the 1980 Primaries a race.


On the other hand Bush in 1988 was never considered that much of a favorite
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dw93
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« Reply #13 on: July 17, 2018, 11:51:02 PM »

General:

1. Clinton 1992
2. Reagan 1980
3. Obama 2008
4. Obama 2012
5. Reagan 1984
6. Bush 1988
7. Bush 2000
8. Nixon 1968
9. Trump 2016
10. Bush 2004
11. Clinton 1996
12. Carter 1976
13. Nixon 1972

Primaries:

1. Carter 1976
2. Clinton 1992
3. Obama 2008
4. Reagan 1980
5. Bush 1988
6. Bush 2000
7. Trump 2016 (He got the nomination due to divided opposition, free airtime by the media, and dumb luck.)
8. Nixon 1968 (there really was not much of a  primary)

I disagree that Reagan 1980 Primary Campaign was better than HW's 1988 one


Reagan unlike Bush in 1988 was considered inevitable for most of the previous year , was the odds-on favorite to win the nomination, and had like the Establishment support that year to(had the vast majority of endorsements) . This made Reagan complacent and cost Reagan Iowa which made the 1980 Primaries a race.


On the other hand Bush in 1988 was never considered that much of a favorite

That one was  a typo. Fixed it.
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ScottieF
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« Reply #14 on: July 18, 2018, 09:25:30 AM »

1. Reagan 1980
2. Clinton 1992
3. Obama 2012
4. Obama 2008
5. Bush 1988
6. Reagan 1984
7. Bush 2000
8. Bush 2004
9. Nixon 1968
10. Clinton 1996
11. Carter 1976
12. Trump 2016
13. Nixon 1972
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #15 on: July 18, 2018, 11:52:05 AM »
« Edited: July 18, 2018, 11:56:34 AM by mathstatman »

In terms of quality of campaigning, I'd put 1988 at the bottom and probably 1992 at the top. (Yes, I am impressed with Bill Clinton's skill as a politician).

As for 1992, in early 1991 President George H. W. Bush was enjoying 90% approval ratings, and the Dems had lost 7 of the preceding 10 Presidential elections, usually by decisive if not crushing margins. A cartoon circulated  that the definition of political suicide is to run against Bush in 1992. Another cartoon depicted a hypothetical "Democrats Anonymous"-type meeting, with the caption "the first step is admitting you're a Democrat!" The then-new host of The Tonight Show, Jay Leno, speculated that Clinton might win only Arkansas, making him a traditional Democrat after all (the crowd laughed). Clinton's 1992 campaign made the Democrats a viable Presidential party again, as the last 7 Presidential elections demonstrate.

As for 1988: in terms of intellectual content, "read my lips", "voodoo", "doodoo", "a thousand points of light", "I haven't sorted out the penalties", and of course endlessly replaying Dukakis' Macomb county tank ride.

Don't get me started on 1988.
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SInNYC
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« Reply #16 on: July 22, 2018, 10:45:08 AM »
« Edited: July 22, 2018, 05:09:21 PM by SInNYC »

1. Nixon 68: southern strategy, while evil, was electoral genius long term, even though Democratic implosion helped in 68 itself
2. Obama 08: new map for Ds with CO/VA and solidifying blue states (and the NC/IN surprises).
3. Nixon 72: see Nixon 68
4. Reagan 80: appropriate approach ('good manager and leader') for someone perceived as a not too bright extremist over someone perceived as incompetent
5. Clinton 92: good mix of very progressive speeches to attract the left mixed with dog whistles on hot button issues to avoid alienating suburbs
6. Obama 12: appropriate framing of Romney as Mr 1%
7. Clinton 96: appropriate framing of Dole as grandpa
8. Reagan 84: Morning in America theme successfully portrayed 82 recession as Carter's fault while ignoring high unemployment
9. W 00: "Compassionate conservative" was a good theme for the time, though I think it was an honest (but not necessarily true) belief rather than an electoral strategy
10. Bush 88: Atwater politics
10. W 04: Kind of like Bush 88
12. Carter 76: Nothing notable here, just the right man for the time (honest peanut farmer)
13. Trump 16: alliterative namecalling  doesn't do anything for me, and I think not much for the people either since he barely won over the worst campaign and second most unpopular candidate ever.

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twenty42
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« Reply #17 on: July 22, 2018, 09:20:26 PM »

Trump 2016 was the greatest campaign in American history. His candidacy was regarded as a joke every step of the way, and he went on to defeat 17 Republican rivals and then the inevitable colossus of Hillary Clinton. He also flipped 100 EV's from 2012 despite a Republican swing of only 1.8%, proving an unbelievable mastery of the EC. All this from a guy who never spent a day in politics. Sorry...he's the real MVP here.
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Computer89
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« Reply #18 on: July 22, 2018, 09:25:19 PM »

Trump 2016 was the greatest campaign in American history. His candidacy was regarded as a joke every step of the way, and he went on to defeat 17 Republican rivals and then the inevitable colossus of Hillary Clinton. He also flipped 100 EV's from 2012 despite a Republican swing of only 1.8%, proving an unbelievable mastery of the EC. All this from a guy who never spent a day in politics. Sorry...he's the real MVP here.


In 1991 people also made jokes about a potential Clinton run and he was polling very badly until July of 1992.

Reagan in 1980 turned what was expected to be a narrow Republican victory into a landslide . Trump on the other hand underperformed what Kasich or maybe even Rubio would have gotten
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twenty42
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« Reply #19 on: July 22, 2018, 09:39:06 PM »

Trump 2016 was the greatest campaign in American history. His candidacy was regarded as a joke every step of the way, and he went on to defeat 17 Republican rivals and then the inevitable colossus of Hillary Clinton. He also flipped 100 EV's from 2012 despite a Republican swing of only 1.8%, proving an unbelievable mastery of the EC. All this from a guy who never spent a day in politics. Sorry...he's the real MVP here.


In 1991 people also made jokes about a potential Clinton run and he was polling very badly until July of 1992.

Reagan in 1980 turned what was expected to be a narrow Republican victory into a landslide . Trump on the other hand underperformed what Kasich or maybe even Rubio would have gotten

Bill Clinton and Reagan were expected to win on their respective Tuesday afternoons. NO major network or news outlet expected Trump to get any more than 231 EV's on his Tuesday afternoon, and he got 306 when all was said and done. His EC efficiency was probably the best in American history if you look at it pound for pound, and I say that as a credit to him for a brilliant campaign strategy.
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Computer89
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« Reply #20 on: July 22, 2018, 11:14:33 PM »

Trump 2016 was the greatest campaign in American history. His candidacy was regarded as a joke every step of the way, and he went on to defeat 17 Republican rivals and then the inevitable colossus of Hillary Clinton. He also flipped 100 EV's from 2012 despite a Republican swing of only 1.8%, proving an unbelievable mastery of the EC. All this from a guy who never spent a day in politics. Sorry...he's the real MVP here.

In 1991 people also made jokes about a potential Clinton run and he was polling very badly until July of 1992.

Reagan in 1980 turned what was expected to be a narrow Republican victory into a landslide . Trump on the other hand underperformed what Kasich or maybe even Rubio would have gotten

Bill Clinton and Reagan were expected to win on their respective Tuesday afternoons. NO major network or news outlet expected Trump to get any more than 231 EV's on his Tuesday afternoon, and he got 306 when all was said and done. His EC efficiency was probably the best in American history if you look at it pound for pound, and I say that as a credit to him for a brilliant campaign strategy.


The last pre election poll in 1980 showed Reagan up 3 points . This is how the map would have looked like if that was the case.



Reagan 308
Carter 230


That means Reagan overperformed pre-election polls by 181 electoral votes. Trump outperformed them by 90 electoral votes(He was expected to get 216 he got 206).
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twenty42
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« Reply #21 on: July 23, 2018, 09:12:10 AM »

Trump 2016 was the greatest campaign in American history. His candidacy was regarded as a joke every step of the way, and he went on to defeat 17 Republican rivals and then the inevitable colossus of Hillary Clinton. He also flipped 100 EV's from 2012 despite a Republican swing of only 1.8%, proving an unbelievable mastery of the EC. All this from a guy who never spent a day in politics. Sorry...he's the real MVP here.

In 1991 people also made jokes about a potential Clinton run and he was polling very badly until July of 1992.

Reagan in 1980 turned what was expected to be a narrow Republican victory into a landslide . Trump on the other hand underperformed what Kasich or maybe even Rubio would have gotten

Bill Clinton and Reagan were expected to win on their respective Tuesday afternoons. NO major network or news outlet expected Trump to get any more than 231 EV's on his Tuesday afternoon, and he got 306 when all was said and done. His EC efficiency was probably the best in American history if you look at it pound for pound, and I say that as a credit to him for a brilliant campaign strategy.


The last pre election poll in 1980 showed Reagan up 3 points . This is how the map would have looked like if that was the case.



Reagan 308
Carter 230


That means Reagan overperformed pre-election polls by 181 electoral votes. Trump outperformed them by 90 electoral votes(He was expected to get 216 he got 206).

I’m not taking anything away from 1980...Reagan did a phenomenal job.

For me though, Trump 2016 takes the cake just because of the sheer sense of impossibility that hung over his campaign from start to finish. It’s easy to forget now that Trump has been president for a year and a half just how unlikely his election was thought to be. I remember being overcome with apathy by October, as a Clinton victory seemed so likely that it felt as if we were just going through the motions at that point.

Reagan certainly ran up the score in 80, but his victory was expected. The same could be said for Bill Clinton in 92. Trump literally went into the evening with a 2-5% chance of winning from every MSM network, and ended up securing a comfortable EC victory.
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Use Your Illusion
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« Reply #22 on: July 25, 2018, 07:11:23 PM »

Trump 2016 takes the cake by far. He won by literally giving people what they wanted and didn't care how many people he pissed off and offended in the process. I'm pretty sure the last guy given that little shot in hell to win an election was probably Truman in 1948 and yet all together both times America woke up the next morning and shouted "WHAT THE F***?!"
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« Reply #23 on: August 08, 2018, 12:24:28 PM »

I think arguably Obama 2012 was the finest. Campaigns are about more than winning elections, and Obama's team convinced the country that he was a great leader and president, despite much evidence to the contrary.

Trump's team convinced a few key demographics that he was slightly preferable to one of the worst candidates ever; they inspired no love of the man they got elected. And since we're comparing that to twelve winning campaigns that therefore did the same exact thing or better, Trump 2016 deserves to be near the bottom of the list.

A more definitive list, taking this long view of history and the purpose of elections, might look something like this:

1. Obama 2012
2. Reagan 1984
3. Obama 2008
4. Reagan 1980
5. Clinton 1996
6. Bush 1988
7. Nixon 1968
8. Bush 2000
9. Carter 1976
10. Clinton 1992
11. Bush 2004
12. Trump 2016
13. Nixon 1972

Interesting that Nixon might be at the top of the list if he'd never been caught. He might leap Trump if it's discovered that Trump committed some other heinous act during the campaign leading to his own downfall.

Why is Reagan 1984 so high, it was not surprising one bit that he won in a landslide.




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« Reply #24 on: August 08, 2018, 12:44:05 PM »

1. Reagan 1980
2. Obama 2012
3. Obama 2008
4. Clinton 1996
5. Trump 2016
6. Clinton 1992
7. Nixon 1968
8. Reagan 1984
9. Bush 1988
10. Carter 1976
11. Bush 2004
12. Bush 2000
13. Nixon 1972
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