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Author Topic: GA-SurveyUSA/11AliveTV: Stacey Abrams only down 2 against both Republicans  (Read 1497 times)
libertpaulian
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« Reply #25 on: July 21, 2018, 10:49:58 am »

The fact that Kemp is only leading Abrams by 5% among those 65+ says it all.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but...Abrams just might pull this thing off.

Even though they are not a huge part of the electorate Iím still in awe of that number with Hispanics. I went back and according to 2014 exit polls Carter beat Deal among Hispanics by 6 points (53-47) now Abrams is leading him among that group by 50!!! (Hillary won them 67-27). That huge shift to the Dems, a couple point bump with whites, and huge turnout and a swing to the left (89 to 93ish) with black voters can get her the Governorís mansion.
I was saying in another thread...just imagine what would happen if we got a Governor Abrams AND a Senator Beto on the same night?!
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IceSpear
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« Reply #26 on: July 21, 2018, 05:07:45 pm »

Of course, Bagel's logic is that only racist white Democrats can win in the South

Since when is Evans a racist? lol
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Mondale
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« Reply #27 on: July 21, 2018, 05:21:30 pm »

The fact that Kemp is only leading Abrams by 5% among those 65+ says it all.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but...Abrams just might pull this thing off.


Dont be surprised if Abram's does. Abrams is the perfect candidate to pull off a victory in Georgia. Clowns like Kemp and Cagle are throwbacks to yesteryear. They are both ranting about culture war drivel that remind America of the 80s and not today.
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Former Senator Zaybay
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« Reply #28 on: July 21, 2018, 05:21:45 pm »

For some of you noting that Carter was leading during this time, I would just like to note that:

1. The name Carter had great name recogniton, sort of like Kennedy in my state, it was when the electorate got to know him that was the problem. Abrams is not starting off with the same amount of name Rec.

2. In 2014, the Dems lead the GB for most of the year, and this was one of those times, it was around D+4. While that election drifted away from the Ds, this election is likely to drift towards the Ds.

Overall, a wonderful poll for Abrams, especially considering the crosstabs give more to whites in a year when Minority turnout will be higher than in 2014. This also confirms that Kemp is still the weaker candidate, and the scandals have not changed that.

Also, Bagel, I get it, your a moderate guy, but this is getting ridiculous.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #29 on: July 21, 2018, 06:51:05 pm »

It's a run off race, but Abrams is exceeding expectations.

Dems lost in 2014 due to the Walsh controversy and Grimes controversy and it was nationalized
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brand_allen
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« Reply #30 on: July 22, 2018, 12:02:44 pm »

I'm of two minds about this. On one hand, it's pretty good for Abrams that she's only trailing by 2 in an electorate that is certainly less black than the one on election day will be. On the other hand, this should theoretically be one of the times she's polling best due to the GOP infighting over the past couple months.

Overall, this still looks like a respectable loss for Abrams to me.

This is where I'm at as well. Though it should be almost verboten, looking at those racial crosstabs and adjusting them to 2014's baseline, this is what the poll would show:

Abrams   45.4 ( +2.8 )
Cagle       42.6

Abrams   47.6 ( +4.5 )
Kemp       43.1

(Though FWIW, Carter was leading in polls around this time 4 years ago)

...and if you were to adjust to the 2016 baseline of 60% white, 30% black, the SurveyUSA result becomes...

Abrams: 46.2%
Cagle: 40.3%

Abrams: 47.1%
Kemp: 41.3%
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olowakandi
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« Reply #31 on: July 22, 2018, 12:29:18 pm »

Abrams has this
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jrk26
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« Reply #32 on: July 22, 2018, 01:03:12 pm »

It's a run off race, but Abrams is exceeding expectations.

Dems lost in 2014 due to the Walsh controversy and Grimes controversy and it was nationalized

That last part just isn't true.
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Situationist
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« Reply #33 on: July 22, 2018, 01:16:49 pm »

This will be 2014 all over again. An exciting candidate polls respectably, gets hyped up, only for it to not be all that close on election day.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #34 on: July 22, 2018, 01:19:42 pm »

The Dems are trying to win the House of Representatives, should they come close and winning the race, states like these win fall into Democrats corner.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #35 on: July 22, 2018, 01:20:18 pm »

This will be 2014 all over again. An exciting candidate polls respectably, gets hyped up, only for it to not be all that close on election day.
The difference is 2014 was a GOP Wave.  2018 is shaping up to be a Dem Wave (albeit probably not as grandiose as 2006 or 2008).  Not to mention POC turnout in the South was abysmal in 2014 compared to the turnout that's likely to materialize this year.
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Beto Bro
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« Reply #36 on: July 22, 2018, 01:30:16 pm »

This will be 2014 all over again. An exciting candidate polls respectably, gets hyped up, only for it to not be all that close on election day.
Carter was exciting? LOL. More like people were completely off base hoping that somehow if he kept his mouth shut on divisive issues and rode the fence white Republicans would somehow vote for him because of his grandfather.

This is not the same at all. The political environment, the candidate, the strategy, everything. Abrams is building a massive GOTV operation, reaching out to low propensity voters, EFL voters, and PACS ready to spend millions to turn out unmarried/young women and black voters, and national help from the Democratic Party. I'm not saying Abrams has it in the bag, but it will certainly be closer than Carter and closer than Hillary quite frankly.
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Prolocutor Bagel23
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« Reply #37 on: July 22, 2018, 02:47:34 pm »

Oh good Trump endorsed Kemp, if he wins we actually got a race on our hands.
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Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁
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« Reply #38 on: July 23, 2018, 09:24:08 am »

Even though they are not a huge part of the electorate Iím still in awe of that number with Hispanics. I went back and according to 2014 exit polls Carter beat Deal among Hispanics by 6 points (53-47) now Abrams is leading him among that group by 50!!! (Hillary won them 67-27). That huge shift to the Dems, a couple point bump with whites, and huge turnout and a swing to the left (89 to 93ish) with black voters can get her the Governorís mansion.

LOL, that shift in the Hispanic # is basically entirely composed of polling error. When you poll a small sub-population, crosstabs shift a lot between different polls (especially between different types of polls with different methodologies, as in this case).
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Noted Irishman
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« Reply #39 on: July 23, 2018, 12:52:03 pm »

Even though they are not a huge part of the electorate Iím still in awe of that number with Hispanics. I went back and according to 2014 exit polls Carter beat Deal among Hispanics by 6 points (53-47) now Abrams is leading him among that group by 50!!! (Hillary won them 67-27). That huge shift to the Dems, a couple point bump with whites, and huge turnout and a swing to the left (89 to 93ish) with black voters can get her the Governorís mansion.

LOL, that shift in the Hispanic # is basically entirely composed of polling error. When you poll a small sub-population, crosstabs shift a lot between different polls (especially between different types of polls with different methodologies, as in this case).

Yeah, based on exit poll data (i.e. assuming black and white support levels were generally accurate), SoS turnout data by race and Carter's vote share, Carter pulled about 64-65% among non-black, non-white voters in 2014.

That's decent - especially given that midterm non-black PoC voters look different than presidential voters and that a less than insignificant chunk of those voters are Asian (continent), and they are not anywhere nearly as Democratic in GA as they are nationally (thanks, Indians and Vietnamese!).



If I had to speculate, I'd say Carter won 70% of Latinos (it may have very well been close to 50/50 among the rest). Look at the swing in my county (Whitfield) in 2014 in particular; the county with the most Latinos swung the most to Carter. While still not a big share of the vote, I can assure you such a strong improvement wouldn't have happened without strong Latino support (though Carter still improved substantially among blue-collar whites in this part of the state compared to Barnes). It's also the only reason Whitfield didn't swing to Trump in 2016.

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« Last Edit: July 23, 2018, 01:08:06 pm by Fmr. Pres. Griff »Logged
IceSpear
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« Reply #40 on: August 06, 2018, 11:20:20 pm »

New Poll: Georgia Governor by Survey USA on 2018-07-19

Summary: D: 44%, R: 46%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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