South African General Election, 2019

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The election is scheduled for 2019 (no specific date set yet), but I haven't been able to find an existing thread for it, so here we go!

A new poll released yesterday shows the ANC's support has spiked from the last poll taken in May 2017, while the main opposition, the Democratic Alliance's support has slumped to a low-

ANC: 60% (+13)
DA: 13% (-8)
EFF: 7% (+2)

It is worth noting that the poll shows a drop in support for both the DA and the ANC since the 2014 election.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-za/ipsos-poll-anc-support-60

EDIT: Digging through the poll, the DA and the ANC are neck and neck in the Western Cape, where the DA won 59% of the vote in 2014. Abysmal news for them.

[TheSaint250]

What’s with the big rise in support for the ANC?

Also, is there even a possibility of the DA gaining power any time soon? I would assume not this election.

[parochial boy]

What’s with the big rise in support for the ANC?

Also, is there even a possibility of the DA gaining power any time soon? I would assume not this election.

Ramaphosa's honeymoon period

And there is absolutely no chance of the DA in their current guise, winning power, for the simple reason that there is really no rational reason for the average black South African to vote for them.

As in, look at the DA's recent history. Under Tony Leon, they became the major opposition party on the catch phrase of "take back control", ie the most obvious dog whistle ever. Helen Zille was basically the incarnation of the apartheid era "madam baas" and left a fairly unpleasant legacy in Cape Town (Blikkiesdorp for instance), which is by all accounts, the most segregated of large South African city. Nowadays, Mmusi Maimane comes across as a major elitist, and is linked to some pretty weird conservative churches.

I would reckon, that if any opposition group is going to emerge in South Africa, it will come out of campaign groups like Abahlali baseMjondolo rather than any of the current crop of abysmal opposition parties.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The prominent anti-ANC unionist Zwelinzima Vavi has formed a leftist rival to COSATU recently, and may finally create a party like he has mulled about for years.

[Tintrlvr]

What’s with the big rise in support for the ANC?

Also, is there even a possibility of the DA gaining power any time soon? I would assume not this election.

A big part of the DA's strength (and the ANC's weakness) was the public's (accurate) perception of corruption and incompetence on the part of the ANC under Zuma, and, before him, Mbeki. Ramaphosa has not been leader for very long, so we can't be certain he'll be better than Zuma in the long term, but most voters view him as an improvement on Zuma and have migrated back towards the ANC. If Ramaphosa starts having serious corruption scandals, the ANC will drift slowly downward again as those voters move back towards the DA and the small parties, but the 2019 elections are soon enough that it seems basically certain that the ANC will advance and the DA decline for the first time in an election in a long time.

Will also be interesting to see if the Inkatha Freedom Party (and other Zulu nationalist parties) can regain the ground lost in KZN under Zuma now that the ANC leader is no longer a Zulu.

[PSOL]

What’s with the big rise in support for the ANC?

Also, is there even a possibility of the DA gaining power any time soon? I would assume not this election.

A big part of the DA's strength (and the ANC's weakness) was the public's (accurate) perception of corruption and incompetence on the part of the ANC under Zuma, and, before him, Mbeki. Ramaphosa has not been leader for very long, so we can't be certain he'll be better than Zuma in the long term, but most voters view him as an improvement on Zuma and have migrated back towards the ANC. If Ramaphosa starts having serious corruption scandals, the ANC will drift slowly downward again as those voters move back towards the DA and the small parties, but the 2019 elections are soon enough that it seems basically certain that the ANC will advance and the DA decline for the first time in an election in a long time.

Will also be interesting to see if the Inkatha Freedom Party (and other Zulu nationalist parties) can regain the ground lost in KZN under Zuma now that the ANC leader is no longer a Zulu.

Would be strange that he gained so much, considering Ramaphos was heavily linked to a massacre of miners in Marinka.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

There's a lot of infighting in the Western Cape ANC, with the Cape Town mayor De Lille losing support of her own party and be on the way for an ouster.

[Tintrlvr]

What’s with the big rise in support for the ANC?

Also, is there even a possibility of the DA gaining power any time soon? I would assume not this election.

A big part of the DA's strength (and the ANC's weakness) was the public's (accurate) perception of corruption and incompetence on the part of the ANC under Zuma, and, before him, Mbeki. Ramaphosa has not been leader for very long, so we can't be certain he'll be better than Zuma in the long term, but most voters view him as an improvement on Zuma and have migrated back towards the ANC. If Ramaphosa starts having serious corruption scandals, the ANC will drift slowly downward again as those voters move back towards the DA and the small parties, but the 2019 elections are soon enough that it seems basically certain that the ANC will advance and the DA decline for the first time in an election in a long time.

Will also be interesting to see if the Inkatha Freedom Party (and other Zulu nationalist parties) can regain the ground lost in KZN under Zuma now that the ANC leader is no longer a Zulu.

Would be strange that he gained so much, considering Ramaphos was heavily linked to a massacre of miners in Marinka.

Don't think that really matters as much as relief that Zuma is gone. The ANC is still the "natural vote" for at least two-thirds of South Africans - they need an active reason not to vote for the ANC, and right now they don't have it.

The Marikana massacre might help the EFF (which is already strong in the region) near where it happened but certainly doesn't help the DA. It was also six years ago; most voters have forgotten.

[DC Al Fine]

How reliable are South African polls?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

How reliable are South African polls?

They were pretty spot-on in 2014.

[EPG]

The list of most over-hyped parties in all international politics finishes not with DA #1, but with DA #2 and the left-of-ANC true communism parties #1.

[parochial boy]

Agang SA probably just pip COPE as the most pathetic party in SA politics tbh.

I wonder if the EFF/DA collaboration at various municipal and provincial levels might be offputting to some of the angry young black men who vote EFF and angry whites who vote DA

[PSOL]

Agang SA probably just pip COPE as the most pathetic party in SA politics tbh.

I wonder if the EFF/DA collaboration at various municipal and provincial levels might be offputting to some of the angry young black men who vote EFF and angry whites who vote DA

I mean the angriest European descendants probably vote for the Afrikaner party

[Tintrlvr]

Agang SA probably just pip COPE as the most pathetic party in SA politics tbh.

I wonder if the EFF/DA collaboration at various municipal and provincial levels might be offputting to some of the angry young black men who vote EFF and angry whites who vote DA

I mean the angriest European descendants probably vote for the Afrikaner party

I think there’s at least one DA-EFF-VF+ coalition out there at the municipal level.

But presumably SA is like everywhere else in the world, and no one knows anything about municipal politics.

[DC Al Fine]

Agang SA probably just pip COPE as the most pathetic party in SA politics tbh.

I wonder if the EFF/DA collaboration at various municipal and provincial levels might be offputting to some of the angry young black men who vote EFF and angry whites who vote DA

I mean the angriest European descendants probably vote for the Afrikaner party

I think there’s at least one DA-EFF-VF+ coalition out there at the municipal level.

But presumably SA is like everywhere else in the world, and no one knows anything about municipal politics.

That and one of the major priorities of all non-dominant parties in a one party plus system can be summarized as "screw the big party"

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The list of most over-hyped parties in all international politics finishes not with DA #1, but with DA #2 and the left-of-ANC true communism parties #1.

I'm not really sure there is such a party (aside from EFF, but they aren't particularly pathetic - more quite terrifying actually). COPE was a liberal formation founded by Mbeki loyalists when Zuma started out (and if you remember, Zuma initially presented himself as a left alternative to Mbeki). There's Agang which also wasn't really a True Left formation, given its leader did a bizarre dance with the DA and their general vague platform. The True Left last time around, the Trotskyist WASP, flopped but it's not like they got much hype.

[EPG]

Oh, I mean EFF and to a much lesser extent Agang fit the pattern. Now you're right that they liaise with the rest of the opposition, but this just demonstrates that while they were meant to be real rivals, as you say they can only exert even a little power by co-operating (I almost wrote collaborating) with DA. And many people tend to say that the ANC aren't left enough or are too corrupt, and that they will be toppled by a true empowerment and redistribution party. In reality it's hard to point to better alternatives to practically any ANC policy since liberation and all things considered, they have among the cleanest records of corruption in Africa, though you can probably thank democracy for that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

We sometimes forget that it's something of a miracle - and not even a minor one - that South Africa did not turn into Yugoslavia South in the 1990s. The country has its problems (very serious ones, not to be underestimated) but the settlement worked and still works. Just have to hope it keeps doing so.

[Hash]

Reminder that when I could actually write something readable and finish what I started, I wrote a pretty good blog post on the 2014 election: https://welections.wordpress.com/2014/05/26/south-africa-2014/

Some people might enjoy it.

[Former President tack50]

Reminder that when I could actually write something readable and finish what I started, I wrote a pretty good blog post on the 2014 election: https://welections.wordpress.com/2014/05/26/south-africa-2014/

Some people might enjoy it.

Wow, that's a very in depth guide and an interesting read! Congrats!

[MAINEiac4434]

Agang SA probably just pip COPE as the most pathetic party in SA politics tbh.

I wonder if the EFF/DA collaboration at various municipal and provincial levels might be offputting to some of the angry young black men who vote EFF and angry whites who vote DA

I mean the angriest European descendants probably vote for the Afrikaner party

I think there’s at least one DA-EFF-VF+ coalition out there at the municipal level.

The Rainbow Nation

[Kosmos]

The election is scheduled for 2019 (no specific date set yet), but I haven't been able to find an existing thread for it, so here we go!

A new poll released yesterday shows the ANC's support has spiked from the last poll taken in May 2017, while the main opposition, the Democratic Alliance's support has slumped to a low-

ANC: 60% (+13)
DA: 13% (-8)
EFF: 7% (+2)

It is worth noting that the poll shows a drop in support for both the DA and the ANC since the 2014 election.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-za/ipsos-poll-anc-support-60

EDIT: Digging through the poll, the DA and the ANC are neck and neck in the Western Cape, where the DA won 59% of the vote in 2014. Abysmal news for them.

The devil is, as they say, in the details.

A breakdown of the total WC respondents gives us this result:

DA 28%
ANC 26%
Refused 17%
Will not vote 9%
None of the current parties 5%
Nor registered 5%
Don't know 5%
EFF 3%

So what has likely happened here is that many people who would presumably stated their support for the DA in the past, have now moved to the fence. This is likely caused by the party's handling of the drought, plus the De Lille drama in Cape Town.

The silver lining for them is perhaps that disappointed voters do not seem to have transfered their to vote to the ANC. The efforts of captonians to preserve water has prevented "day zero" (for now) while winter rains are filling the dams again. The conflict with De Lille is scheduled to be resolved with a public disciplinary hearing in August. That's the idea, at least.

The DA can only hope that if they do sort this stuff out, enough of their old voters will forgive them. But it is definately not an ideal situation a year before an election.

[DC Al Fine]

A few questions:

1) What share of Whites vote not-DA (VF+ and ANC presumably)

2) How do Coloureds and Asians vote? I assume DA with a big ANC minority?

3) Are there any Black ethnic groups besides that are more likely to vote not-ANC? I'm aware of Zulus voting IFP but are any groups more likely to back DA or EFF?

[Hash]

1) What share of Whites vote not-DA (VF+ and ANC presumably)

I can't give a share, but a not-insignificant (but shrinking) minority of white Afrikaners vote VF+, which got around 6-10% of the vote in some white Afrikaner neighbourhoods of Pretoria and other major cities and towns in the former Transvaal. In 2014, VF+ won over 5% of the vote in Tlokwe municipality - i.e. Potchefstroom, a high place of 'Transvaal-brand' Afrikaner nationalism in the past - getting close to 20% in some wards. This in addition to, needless to say, Orania (81% in 2016). Obviously, the VF+ is nonexistant among English-speaking whites.

While there are still many examples of white politicians in the ANC, the number of white voters who actually support the ANC is smaller than ever (at least as of 2014/6) - almost certainly below 10% anywhere.

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The Coloured vote in the Western Cape has been traditionally been anti-ANC since the first democratic elections in 1994 -- as many have since incredulously noted, the key to the NP's victory in the Western Cape province in 1994 was its success with Coloured voters, which it had previously oppressed (but not as much as the blacks, which may explain matters). Since Patricia de Lille's Independent Democrats (ID), which snatched a good chunk of the Coloured vote in the WC in the past, and the weakening of the ANC in the WC since 2004, the urban Coloured vote in Cape Town has become nearly as monolithically DA as the white vote, with over 85% of the vote in Mitchell's Plain. The Coloured vote in Port Elizabeth now appear to vote much the same, as do the Coloured neighbourhoods in Gauteng or KZN. On the other hand, the Coloured vote in small towns and rural areas in the former Cape province are not voting DA at the same levels as Coloured townships in urban areas are -- the most obvious example of this would be the entire Northern Cape province, which is 40% Coloured, but only voted 23.4% DA in the 2014 national elections (or, at a more micro level, Central Karoo DM in the WC which is three-quarters Coloured but narrowly voted ANC in 2014). It may be worth pointing out that, in 1994, the NP won nearly 50% of the vote in the NC.

In Durban, the Indian/Asian vote used to be largely dominated by Amichand Rajbansi's nasty Minority Front (MF), which has thankfully collapsed and disappeared into oblivion since Rajbansi's death in 2011 and the 2014/6 elections. The Indian vote in Durban's Indian suburbs (Chatsworth and Phoenix notably) has since shifted heavily to the DA, which claims to have won over 60% of the Indian/Asian vote in the 2014 elections. The old Indian township of Lenasia in JHB also voted DA in 2014/6 (with the ANC vote roughly 20-25%, with the Islamist party Al Jama-ah coming in a respectable third).

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The DA says that it won over 700,000 black votes in 2014, or 6% of the vote, up from less than 1% in 2009, and from actual results it is clear that the DA's black support is no longer entirely insignificant and irrelevant. In a few cases, the DA even won over 10% in some homogeneously black wards in some urban areas in 2016. The DA performs best with middle-class black voters, particularly in Johannesburg's affluent northern suburbs, once lily white but now increasingly racially heterogenous (but still predominantly white), where the DA vote is significantly higher than the number of whites and the ANC vote significantly lower than the number of blacks. In 2016, the DA won over 80% in almost every wards in JHB's northern suburbs, which indicates that it must have won sizable, double-digit support among black voters. The DA's support in the townships remains very weak (but now over the threshold of relevance), and exceedingly weak in poor rural areas, where a lot of black voters still live (as a legacy of the bantustans).

Besides the IFP (+ NFP)'s support in traditionalist rural areas of the former KwaZulu homeland and among Zulu migrant workers in the hostels in the PWV and Durban, Bantu Holomisa's UDM is holding on to dwindling support in parts of the former Transkei, specifically in Mthatha municipality (the former capital of Transkei, and including Holomisa's hometown of Mqanduli). In 1999, the UDM's first election, the party won 21% in those parts of the EC which had been part of either Ciskei or Transkei (much higher in the latter), and over 50% in Mthatha, but that has dropped to just 22% in Mthatha municipality in 2016 (and 15.3% in neighbouring Mbhashe municipality). In 2014, the UDM did also enjoy a (deadcat?) bounce in the platinum belt (Rustenburg, incl. Marikana, and Merafong City), because of Holomisa's popularly among Xhosa migrant mineworkers in the region. In the past, the UCDP, the party founded by horrible person and former Bophuthatswana ruler Lucas Mangope, did get a sizable number of vote in the former Bop homeland (specifically around Mmabatho, the former capital), but its support, even in 1999, was never comparable to that of the UDM (because Holomisa, while not a model citizen, is not a horrible turd like Mangope). Thankfully, the UCDP has since died off.

The EFF probably placed second with black voters in 2014 and 2016, and its electorate is (unsurprisingly) homogenously black, doing best - from the sparse data which is available (and to be taken with the appropriate levels of salt) with young, unemployed males in urban areas, particularly shantytowns and the poorest parts of the townships (not overly surprising). But the EFF's appeal was unequal, and in both 2014 and 2016 it was significantly weaker (though still often a distant second) in predominantly Xhosa and Zulu black areas in WC and KZN. In 2014 and 2016, the EFF did very well in the platinum belt (especially Rustenburg, incl. Marikana, where it got 26% in 2016), for reasons which should be pretty obvious by now. In 2014 (and, by the looks of it, 2016 too), EFF generally did better wih Sepedi and Setswana-speakers; Malema's native language is Sepedi. EFF did well in Sepedi-speaking townships in Gauteng, and its best province is Malema's native province of Limpopo (where it is the official opposition), especially the provincial capital of Polokwane where EFF got 28% in 2016. In 2014 and 2016, the EFF's strong support in many urban townships (in addition to the DA's much more modest gains on the margins) significantly reduced the ANC's support among black voters in urban areas, especially in Gauteng.

(disclaimer: I haven't really kept myself up to date with RSA for the last few months, nor have I read or researched the country in over a year, so I may be rusty on the details and leaving stuff out).

[Tintrlvr]

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The Coloured vote in the Western Cape has been traditionally been anti-ANC since the first democratic elections in 1994 -- as many have since incredulously noted, the key to the NP's victory in the Western Cape province in 1994 was its success with Coloured voters, which it had previously oppressed (but not as much as the blacks, which may explain matters). Since Patricia de Lille's Independent Democrats (ID), which snatched a good chunk of the Coloured vote in the WC in the past, and the weakening of the ANC in the WC since 2004, the urban Coloured vote in Cape Town has become nearly as monolithically DA as the white vote, with over 85% of the vote in Mitchell's Plain. The Coloured vote in Port Elizabeth now appear to vote much the same, as do the Coloured neighbourhoods in Gauteng or KZN. On the other hand, the Coloured vote in small towns and rural areas in the former Cape province are not voting DA at the same levels as Coloured townships in urban areas are -- the most obvious example of this would be the entire Northern Cape province, which is 40% Coloured, but only voted 23.4% DA in the 2014 national elections (or, at a more micro level, Central Karoo DM in the WC which is three-quarters Coloured but narrowly voted ANC in 2014). It may be worth pointing out that, in 1994, the NP won nearly 50% of the vote in the NC.

Just a comment here - the demographics of Northern Cape have also changed significantly since 1994, with a large increase in the black population and corresponding decline in the white and Coloured populations, largely due to internal migration; Northern Cape is now majority black by a significant margin but was easily majority Coloured in 1994. It is clear that the NP did better with Coloured voters in 1994 than the DA did in 2014, but there have been other changes as well.