Argentina general elections, 27 October 2019. Open Primaries 11 August

[Lumine]

What is peronism?

Anything you want it to be, really. I suppose you could describe it today as broad tent (personality-based) center-left to left-wing populism which retains protectionist, nationalist and corporatist views, but trying to accurately define Peronism is a futile exercise.

[Velasco]

What is peronism?

Anything you want it to be, really. I suppose you could describe it today as broad tent (personality-based) center-left to left-wing populism which retains protectionist, nationalist and corporatist views, but trying to accurately define Peronism is a futile exercise.

The Kirchners might fit in your description of today's Peronism. The problem is that they only represent a faction within a multiform and cross-ideological movement. Currently the kirchnerista faction is the largest and its leader is loved by 1/3 of Argentinians or so, but the divisive Cristina needed to ally with other factions and step aside to unite Peronism and be competitive. There is a great distance between the kirchnerista organization La Cámpora and moderate or conservative Peronists like Massa or Pichetto, or between the sindicalist Hugo Moyano and the technocrat Roberto Lavagna. Actually there are Peronists of all kinds: right-leaning and left-leaning, protectionists and advocates of free market. I'd say nationalism and sentimentalism are common traits to all Peronists. As you say, trying to find an appropriate definition is futile. I remember Al defined Peronism as a "collective delusion" when another poster made the same question time ago. Maybe we are the deluded, I don't know. There is something mystical or religious that makes Peronism impenetrable for me, but I love Peronists anyway

[Walmart_shopper]

What is peronism?

Anything you want it to be, really. I suppose you could describe it today as broad tent (personality-based) center-left to left-wing populism which retains protectionist, nationalist and corporatist views, but trying to accurately define Peronism is a futile exercise.

Yeah, I mean, the technical answer is that Peronism is a people-centered (and so fundamentally populistic) yet somewhat autocratic policy project centered around an economic system that emphasizes a robust and broadly redistributive role for the state. It's like a conservative Argentine socialism, and that itself is a paradox that makes Peronism so conceptually nebulous. Generally, though, it is highly suspicious of global economic systems and especially liberalism. It is also a kind of non-ideological ideology (again with the paradoxes), wanting to empower people without giving them power that doesn't belong to them (there's the conservatism).

[Velasco]

I found this srticle in Forbes and it's surprisingly impartial in the description of economic policy during the Kirchner era. I mean, it's not Peronist friendly but avoids simplification making clear Argentina is not Venezuela.  Moreover, it says "Peronism was populist" but "managed to rebuild the economy" during the presidency of Néstor with people like Roberto Lavagna

https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesinternational/2019/08/13/peronism-wins-but-argentina-wont-become-venezuela/

 
The main reason for his defeat (Macri) was that after almost four years in office, all the variables of the macro-economy worsened: inflation went from 25% to 50%, the dollar went from 15 pesos to 45 (and it is possible that it may jump to 60!), poverty increased from 30% to 34%, debt to the IMF multiplied, and the nation fell deeper into recession. The reasons for Macri’s failure are complex (...)

For foreign correspondents, and political or economic analysts, synthesizing a “return of populism” is the most accurate description, but at the same time it’s a simplification. Since 1945, throughout its 75 years of history (35 in government), Peronism knew how to be populist at the ideological extremes: from neo-liberalism to the extreme left.or foreign correspondents, and political or economic analysts, synthesizing a “return of populism” is the most accurate description, but at the same time it’s a simplification. Since 1945, throughout its 75 years of history (35 in government), Peronism knew how to be populist at the ideological extremes: from neo-liberalism to the extreme left.


During twelve years of Kirchnerism (2003-2015), Peronism was populist, but with diverse economic policies. During his first four years, together with figures such as Roberto Lavagna (who came in third place in Sunday’s primaries), Alfonso Prat Gay and Martín Redrado, Peronism managed to rebuild the economy after the country defaulted on its debt in 2001. Supported by the increase in commodities, it achieved years of economic growth at Chinese rates. Under the management of CFK, in a more hostile macroeconomic environment, high inflation, unemployment and corruption grew, as it did in other countries of the region (...)

 

[samm5]

Regarding leaders angry with Macri's strategy, I think Bs As Gov María Eugenia Vidal is one of the most injured parties. She's more popular than the president and could have performed better in a gubernatorial election separated from the general election. While Macri was in a state of shock on election night, Vidal was able to say she would be self-critical (in sharp contrast with the deranged Lilita Carrió). Do you think there exists the possibility of a rift between Vidal and Macri? Also, in case of defeat in October, is Vidal a good contender to replace Macri?

Yeah Vidal and her team are mad, Larreta (mayor of BA City, the place where PRO was born) and her were or are the natural replacements for Macri. I'm sure she'll try to be the new leader of the opposition since she won't have any public position until the mid-term elections in two years.
However, I think there was too many optimism regarding her figure. Media and some consultants almost categorized her as some sort of Margaret Tatcher from the third world and she lost by a widest margin than Macri in her province, i don't know if she would have won even if the elections were separated. Having a positive image doesn't necessarily mean you are competitive in electoral terms.

Respecting peronism and the new government, it's true that the Kirchernist era was much more left-wing "populist" (i don't use this term very often as i don't agree as how is usually used) than before. But there was also a context in Latin America and another economic situation. Peronism is pretty "chamaleonic". After all, they almost sold the entire state in the 90's... I think (maybe i'm wrong) that Fernandez will lead a much more moderate government, let's say a more "social democratic" approach. He hasn't introduced members of a possible cabinet yet but there's rumours and speculation in media. With respect of the economic positions, they say the orthodox part will lead Finance (the budget and negotiations with the IFM) and the more heterodox will run what is called now the Ministry of Production (this are the areas regarding Industry, Commerce, etc)

[Velasco]

[qu

Respecting peronism and the new government, it's true that the Kirchernist era was much more left-wing "populist" (i don't use this term very often as i don't agree as how is usually used) than before. But there was also a context in Latin America and another economic situation. Peronism is pretty "chamaleonic". After all, they almost sold the entire state in the 90's...

I think the term "populist" is a wildcard that can be used in whatever context with whatever meaning. If you ask my ooinion, I'd say that nearly all Argentinian politicians are "populist" to me including CFdK, Macri and Massa. I'd only spare the sober Hermes Binner (Swiss ancestry, I believe), Roberto Lavagna and maybe Margarita Stolbizer. On the other hand, the rightwing Peronist Carlos Menem was a very interesting character, a populist in the Berlusconi's fashion who implemented neoliberal policies on the path of the Washington consensus

[Lumine]

[qu

Respecting peronism and the new government, it's true that the Kirchernist era was much more left-wing "populist" (i don't use this term very often as i don't agree as how is usually used) than before. But there was also a context in Latin America and another economic situation. Peronism is pretty "chamaleonic". After all, they almost sold the entire state in the 90's...

I think the term "populist" is a wildcard that can be used in whatever context with whatever meaning. If you ask my ooinion, I'd say that nearly all Argentinian politicians are "populist" to me including CFdK, Macri and Massa. I'd only spare the sober Hermes Binner (Swiss ancestry, I believe), Roberto Lavagna and maybe Margarita Stolbizer. On the other hand, the rightwing Peronist Carlos Menem was a very interesting character, a populist in the Berlusconi's fashion who implemented neoliberal policies on the path of the Washington consensus

Oh god, Menem! Whenever we discussed him with my friends we laughed a lot, such a weird man. I really can't think of proper words to describe him, but the Berlusconi comparison is fairly accurate.

It's impossible to translate it so it sounds as funny and outrageous as it does in Spanish, but my favorite quote from him - Wikiquote translated - is when he randomly started to talk about futuristic Argentinian space flight in a speech (and people allegedly believed him):

"...a space flight system will be leased, through which a platform that perhaps will be installed in the province of Córdoba. Those spaceships, with all current and future security measures, are going to leave the atmosphere, take off to the stratosphere, and from there choose the place where they want to go. In such a way that, in one hour and a half we can be from Argentina in Japan, Korea or any other part of the world. And of course, flights to other planets, the day we detect that on other planets there's also life"

[Bidenworth2020]

Could Fernandez win over 60? He won 47 in the primary, so he will almost certainly win in the first round. How will that remaining 21% break?

[MaxQue]

Could Fernandez win over 60? He won 47 in the primary, so he will almost certainly win in the first round. How will that remaining 21% break?

It doesn't work that way. It's not a top-2 second round, it's "eliminate candidates who did under 1.5%" before the real election. So, only 1.22% is up for grabs.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Could Fernandez win over 60? He won 47 in the primary, so he will almost certainly win in the first round. How will that remaining 21% break?

It doesn't work that way. It's not a top-2 second round, it's "eliminate candidates who did under 1.5%" before the real election. So, only 1.22% is up for grabs.

Yes, but we may eventually get the actual second round in november

There's a lot more than 1.22% of the votes up for grabs in the first round, as a lot of Centurión and Espert voters will change to Macri for the first round and quite a few of Lavagna (and Lavagna may win some votes from other parties as well) and FIT voters would also change their vote

A majority of Lavagna voters would likely vote for Macri in a second round and most Centurión and Espert voters will definitely vote for Macri in this hypothetical (and frankly unlikely) second round

A good chunk of Frente de Izquierda and MAS voters will abstain and the remaining minority would vote for Fernandez. The Fernandez are already quite close to their electoral "roof", unless the state of the economy gets significantly worse in the next couple of months (which is always a serious possibility here)

[Bidenworth2020]

Could Fernandez win over 60? He won 47 in the primary, so he will almost certainly win in the first round. How will that remaining 21% break?

It doesn't work that way. It's not a top-2 second round, it's "eliminate candidates who did under 1.5%" before the real election. So, only 1.22% is up for grabs.

Yes, but we may eventually get the actual second round in november

There's a lot more than 1.22% of the votes up for grabs in the first round, as a lot of Centurión and Espert voters will change to Macri for the first round and quite a few of Lavagna (and Lavagna may win some votes from other parties as well) and FIT voters would also change their vote

A majority of Lavagna voters would likely vote for Macri in a second round and most Centurión and Espert voters will definitely vote for Macri in this hypothetical (and frankly unlikely) second round

A good chunk of Frente de Izquierda and MAS voters will abstain and the remaining minority would vote for Fernandez. The Fernandez are already quite close to their electoral "roof", unless the economy gets significantly worse in the next couple of months (which is always a serious possibility here)

Does Fernandez win a majority in the second round? And also, who are you backing?

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

I should've updated this thread a long, long time ago, but I had a lot of stuff (nothing too serious) going on with my life and this election season hasn't been very interesting as Fernandez (TODOS)  can clearly win in the firt round (October 27), which was unexpected before the PASO results

The state of the economy only got worse in recent months, despite the desperate measures by the national government taken shortly after the primary election results (the main of these measures, excluding basic food items from the VAT was criticized yeaterday in a ruling by the Supreme Court as it unilaterally affected the provinces' rights and economic interests)

The first 2 polls taken after the PASO (as unreliable as they can be over here) show Fernandez winning in the first round by a very clear margin, getting 52-53% (47.7% in the primaries), while Macri (JxC) would barely win any further votes - 33-34.5% against 32% in the PASO, and Lavagna staying relatively strong at around the same percentage as in the August elections (7-8% vs. 8.2%)

Campaign season began a couple of weeks ago, and Alberto Fernández has been in a lot of Tv and radio ads, while Macri has largely relegated this role to Maria Eugenia Vidal (as Macri's [and the national government's] public opinion poll numbers are very low) , governor of Buenos Aires Province which has been focusing on security and anti-corruption issues [minor update: Macri released an ads which is basically "I know you're disappointed on my performance and that's why you didn't vote for us, but we didn't have enough time and together we can make things better"] , Lavagna's ads talk as always as how he's the only one capable to solve an economic crisis due to his experience with the effects of the 2001 economic debacle, Frente de Izquierda is focusing on Fernandez and Macri being the same, and Centurión/NOS has only had one ad (an only on the radio AFAIK) where his only line is "Fernandez = abortion", I haven't seen any ads for Espert/Unite-Despertar so far

The presidential debate will take place on October 13


On the Mendoza (the third strongest province for Cambiemos/JxC) provincial elections, which took place on Sunday, the JxC candidate won by a large margin, Rodolfo Suárez (UCR/Cambia Mendoza, mayor of Mendoza city) got 51.3% (a stronger performance than what his precedecessor Alfredo Cornejo got in 2015), the kircherista Anabel Fernández Sagasti (FPV/FSP Elegí, Senator for Mendoza [2015-2021]) 36.2% (4 points weaker than the PJ/FPV candidate in 2015), José Luis Ramón (Protectora [currently allied with Lavagna's Consenso Federal], Representative for Mendoza) 8.7% and Noelia Barbeito (PTS/FIT, provincial senator) 3.4% (a poor performance when compared to their surprising 10% in 2015, when they had no competition from Ramón)

[Lumine]

I'm aware Macri is beyond doomed, but will he even break 30% with that situation? Looks like unmitigated disaster.

[Conservatopia]

It looks as though Macri may be doomed but what is the situation with Cambiemos and other anti Kirchener forces overall?  Are they facing deep losses or is the vlter anger mostly aimed at Macri himself?  I seem to remember Cambiemos doing well in the midterms despite Macri not being that popular.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

It looks as though Macri may be doomed but what is the situation with Cambiemos and other anti Kirchener forces overall?  Are they facing deep losses or is the vlter anger mostly aimed at Macri himself?  I seem to remember Cambiemos doing well in the midterms despite Macri not being that popular.

For Cambiemos candidates that were unlucky enough to have elections on the same date as the national Paso, yes, very much so in a negative way, especially in Buenos Aires Province

[Velasco]

It looks as though Macri may be doomed but what is the situation with Cambiemos and other anti Kirchener forces overall?  Are they facing deep losses or is the vlter anger mostly aimed at Macri himself?  I seem to remember Cambiemos doing well in the midterms despite Macri not being that popular.

The midterms in 2017 were a resonating victory for Macri over a divided peronist opposition. Even Cristina Fernández was defeated in the senatorial contest of Buenos Aires province by a mediocre candidate like Esteban Bullrich. I think the Bs As governor and Cambiemos rising star María Eugenia Vidal was more popular than Mauricio Macri, but the government's image was not as battered two years ago. Struggling econony and united opposition have reversed electoral fortunes and now both Macri and Vidal are bound to lose.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Yesterday the first presidential debate took place, it was a very stiff one due to the technical demmands and rules set by the Electoral Court (very short times for very general topics, no split-screens, no direct questions between the candidates, no audience reactions and a very small audience), and all candidates used it to explain VERY broadly some of their main proposals (especially by the more ideological candidates, Centurión and Espert [whose main well-explained proposal was a very unpopular one, paid public university], and Lavagna) or to attack one of the main candidates (Fernández (who had very little depth in his very general statements) against Macri, and Del Caño against the two main ones) ans with plenty of wrong facts and statistics by most candidates. The debate only reached 60% of the TV ratings of the 2015 Macri-Scioli debates and I don't think many people will change their votes based on these performances.

There will be a second debate next Sunday (one week before the elections), with the same limitations as the first one but with a difference set of topics

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Any interesting new developments? The election is in three days and I know it's pretty widely agreed upon that Macri is DOA, but anything new?

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

So, here's a general update

Macri has changed a bit their line since the massive defeat in the PASO primaries and turned to the idea of massive marches in many large cities in support of the goverment under the slogan "Sí se puede" (Yes, it can be done) and a more "evangelical" (for the lack of a better term) line, with more pompous speeches and actions in many of the marches (which is weird to see as Macri is notably very stiff and often  a very poor public speaker) and trying to win over votes from Frente NOS with many pro-life statements and VP candidate Pichetto going hard on his old anti-immigration and law-and-order ideas

Last sunday the second debate between the presidential candidates took place in which Macri had a stronger pressence than in the first one

Today is the date chosen by all parties for their big closing events, as the official campaign pre-election silence (veda electoral) starts in less than 24 hours.
TODOS chose the beach city Mar del Plata, the largest city in the southern half of Buenos Aires Province with a population of over 750K and a huge middle class tourism hub, in a large act led by Alberto, Cristina (who had been largely absent from the campaign partly because of her being less popular and less scandal-free than Alberto and partly because of the poor health of her daughter Florencia Kirchner) and Axel Kicilof, the kirchnerista candidate for governor of Buenos Aires Province
JxC Córboba, their main stronghold after Buenos Aires City and capital of the most anti-kirchnerista province in the country
Consenso Federal closed their campaign in Salta, Urtubey (Lavagna's VP candidate is the incumbent governor of Salta for a few  weeks more)
Frente NOS chose 2 have  split events, Centurión travelled to a small town in Santiago del Estero (the poorest province in the country) in which NOS got their highest electoral results, and Cynthia Hotton had a more traditional opening act with a multitude of Evangelical leaders in Virrey del Pino, La Matanza (the largest county in the Greater Buenos Aires Area)
Frente de Izquierda chose in the last minute to make their closing event in front of the Chilean embassy in Buenos Aires, as a way of supporting the protests taking place in the neighboring country
Unite-Despertar will make theirs a free-entrance private event, the EspertFest, in a bar in Buenos Aires

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Any news?

[Estrella]

Any news?

Clarín says results should start coming in at ~9pm (midnight UTC) and voter turnout it high, possibly reaching 2015's 81%. Whether it goes to a second round is pretty much a tossup.

Todo Notícias TV livestream: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVH6WvzwGeM

[kaoras]

Any news?

Whether it goes to a second round is pretty much a tossup.

That's sounds more like wishful thinking from Macri and its media. AF needs just 45% and he got 49% in PASO, and this time blank votes will be excluded from the total. Edit: And all the polls have him over 50%

[mgop]

Looks like Fernandez will win in Argentina and Martinez in Uruguay (also elections today: FA - Martinez 41.1%, PN - Pou 28.7%). That's great news, if Pinera falls in Chile, whole Southern Cone will be free.

[Keep Calm and ...]

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1188581314733080576

[Mike88]

This was a forgone conclusion for a while. Macri was a disaster. Now, how is the relationship between the "Double Fernandéz"? Is Cristina ok with being second in everything or could there be future tensions between her and Alberto Fernandéz?