Argentina general elections, 27 October 2019. Open Primaries 11 August

[Mike88]

It seems that exit polls overestimated Fernandéz victory a bit. However, a second round is unlikely.

79% in:

47.5% Fernandéz
41.0% Macri
  6.2% Lavagna
  2.1% Caño
  1.7% Centurión
  1.5% Espert

[samm5]

This was a forgone conclusion for a while. Macri was a disaster. Now, how is the relationship between the "Double Fernandéz"? Is Cristina ok with being second in everything or could there be future tensions between her and Alberto Fernandéz?

It was, but the difference was less than expected. After the primaries, with the financial-economic inestability there was speculation in media/pollsters that Macri could even fall as people would blame him for the financial trouble and Fernandez could grow from 48% to 50-52%, however it didn't really happen.

Although he lost, it's almost half the difference in comparison with the primaries (from 16% to 7-8%). Also he won more provinces than before. Cordoba, BA City as in the primaries, but also Mendoza, Entre Rios,San Luis and it seems Santa Fe. I'm making these comment with 88% of the votes counted, some percentages could change a bit.

Macri grew 6-7 pp, in my opinion, the main reason for this is: antikirchnerism + some strategic voting from voters of the third parties + majority of the people who didn't vote in the primaries voted for Macri (this also happen in 2015)

About the double fernandez situation: we don't know yet. The next political topics probably will be the transition, the Fernandez cabinet and the financial-economic crisis

[samm5]

I forgot:
The constitution says that you win with 45%, you don't need 50% as in Uruguay or Brazil for example. So the election is over.

Rodriguez Larreta (incumbent, now the only PRO governor) won the race in the City of Buenos Aires with 55%, more than 20 points ahead of Lammens (35%).

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

With 92.6% of the votes counted the national tendency is now officially irreversible

Fernández 47.88%
Macri 40.61
Lavagna 6.17%
Del Caño 2.14%
G. Centurión 1.71%
Espert 1.48

Blank votes 1.44%


Macri acknowledged the defeat 10 minutes ago

[Bidenworth2020]

Any idea where I can get detailed results? If I had to guess, Macri did better tha expected in rural areas due to his pro life stance, as well doing very well in Buenos Aires

[samm5]

Any idea where I can get detailed results? If I had to guess, Macri did better tha expected in rural areas due to his pro life stance, as well doing very well in Buenos Aires

I can't post links, but La Nación or any major newspaper has good maps!

[skbl17]

Any idea where I can get detailed results? If I had to guess, Macri did better tha expected in rural areas due to his pro life stance, as well doing very well in Buenos Aires

I can't post links, but La Nación or any major newspaper has good maps!

Got you covered: here's a link to the official results.

[Bidenworth2020]

Any idea where I can get detailed results? If I had to guess, Macri did better tha expected in rural areas due to his pro life stance, as well doing very well in Buenos Aires

I can't post links, but La Nación or any major newspaper has good maps!

Got you covered: here's a link to the official results.

Thanks dude!

[Ebsy]

Fernández headed towards an 8 point victory and not far under 50%.

[Skye]

All things considered Macri did better than expected. Still, disappointing results.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/cnni/status/1188705794151374848


I have mixed feelings on this, especially with Ms. Kirchner returning to power. Wasn't it her govt that got the country in trouble in the 1st place? Now Macri was obviously ineffective, but I'm not sure he was a smaller evil.

[Walmart_shopper]

What about the legislative races?

[Mike88]

What about the legislative races?

Congress of Deputies: (129 for a majority)

120 PJ (nc)
119 Cambiemos (+9)
    5 Peronisno no K (-1)
    4 Terceira Via (-2)
    2 Left (-1)
    7 Others (-5)

Senate: (37 for a majority)

37 PJ (+3)
29 Cambiemos (nc)
  2 Peronismo no K (nc)
  1 Terceira via (-2)
  3 Others (-1)

From here: https://www.lanacion.com.ar/politica/elecciones-2019-bancas-tiempo-real-quienes-entran-nid2300186

[windjammer]

What about the legislative races?

Congress of Deputies: (129 for a majority)

120 PJ (nc)
119 Cambiemos (+9)
    5 Peronisno no K (-1)
    4 Terceira Via (-2)
    2 Left (-1)
    7 Others (-5)

Senate: (37 for a majority)

37 PJ (+3)
29 Cambiemos (nc)
  2 Peronismo no K (nc)
  1 Terceira via (-2)
  3 Others (-1)

From here: https://www.lanacion.com.ar/politica/elecciones-2019-bancas-tiempo-real-quienes-entran-nid2300186

No majority for the Kirchners?

[buritobr]

In no other country, a leader who had a falling GDP during his term would have >40%. This is the rotine of the democracy. If a leader fail, another one comes.

[buritobr]

After 97,92% of the polls proceeded, the results are
Alberto Fernandez 12,473,709 (48.10%)
Mauricio Macri 10.470.607 (40.38%)
Roberto Lavagna 1.599.707 (6.17%)
Nicolas del Cano 561.214 (2.16%)

Macri won in the city of Buenos Aires (52%-36%). He won also in the provinces of Cordoba, Mendonza and Santa Fe. Fernandez won the poorest provinces. Fernandez also won the province of Buenos Aires, in which the city does not belong.
https://www.clarin.com/politica/resultados-elecciones-2019-quien-gano-argentina_0_fAmHiiJe.html

[Walmart_shopper]

Who knew BA was a bastion of right wingery? Don't tell the Porteños this, though.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

A well deserved loss for Macri.

[bigic]

Who knew BA was a bastion of right wingery? Don't tell the Porteños this, though.

Maybe it's not so much right-wingery as it's anti-peronism? On the other hand Macri's VP candidate is a Peronist.

[Walmart_shopper]

Montevideo, by contrast, is a vote sink for the left in neighboring Uruguay. It's by far the most left wing part of the country.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Who knew BA was a bastion of right wingery? Don't tell the Porteños this, though.

I thought that's always been the pattern historically? The greater Buenos Aires area as the bastion of Radicalism while Peronism dominates more remote areas.

(Of course the "Radical = right, Peronist = left" correspondence was a lot less clear in the past than it is since the turn of the century.)

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Who knew BA was a bastion of right wingery? Don't tell the Porteños this, though.

I thought that's always been the pattern historically? The greater Buenos Aires area as the bastion of Radicalism while Peronism dominates more remote areas.

(Of course the "Radical = right, Peronist = left" correspondence was a lot less clear in the past than it is since the turn of the century.)

Large parts of Gran Buenos Aires have been under the control of peronistas for decades while Radicals only have one mayor (Posse in San Isidro), the interior of the Province has been closer to the UCR (and later to Cambiemos) for a very long time

[Estrella]

Who knew BA was a bastion of right wingery? Don't tell the Porteños this, though.

I thought that's always been the pattern historically? The greater Buenos Aires area as the bastion of Radicalism while Peronism dominates more remote areas.

(Of course the "Radical = right, Peronist = left" correspondence was a lot less clear in the past than it is since the turn of the century.)

Large parts of Gran Buenos Aires have been under the control of peronistas for decades while Radicals only have one mayor (Posse in San Isidro), the interior of the Province has been closer to the UCR (and later to Cambiemos) for a very long time

Is that because of 'ordinary' class-divided politics (poorer working class suburbs against relatively more affluent countryside) or is it for more, er, typically South American reasons?

[buritobr]

Latin America is not like the developed world, where the left does better in the big cities and the right does better in the rural areas. In Latin America, sometimes, the opposite happens. In the developed world, most of the upper middle class families live in the suburbs, and the big cities have a lot of immigrants and single people. In Latin America, many upper middle class families live in the big cities.
Macri won not only Buenos Aires, but also the big cities of Mendonza and Cordoba. In Recoleta and Palermo, the wealthiest neighborhoods of Buenos Aires, Macri had >65%.

[Skye]

Latin America is not like the developed world, where the left does better in the big cities and the right does better in the rural areas. In Latin America, sometimes, the opposite happens. In the developed world, most of the upper middle class families live in the suburbs, and the big cities have a lot of immigrants and single people. In Latin America, many upper middle class families live in the big cities.
Macri won not only Buenos Aires, but also the big cities of Mendonza and Cordoba. In Recoleta and Palermo, the wealthiest neighborhoods of Buenos Aires, Macri had >65%.

It used to be like that in Venezuela. Wealthier neighborhoods in cities is where chavismo got their lowest levels of support.