Argentina general elections, 27 October 2019. Open Primaries 11 August

[LoneStarDem]

What are the odds that Macri wins reelection ?

[samm5]

1) How much is the Nisman affair affecting Cristina's electoral prospects?

2) Is Lavagna running on a more economically centrist/left-leaning platform compared to previous dissident Peronists given his role as an economic advisor in Nestor Kirchner's cabinet?

1)- Nothing, the people who think she was part of his murder or something like that already hate her and won't vote for her, also is not a "big thing" for the electorate, probably there's still an investigation but it kinda faded away. In general people are worried (mainly) by the economic situation, specially inflation, the recession, unemployment, etc

2)-  His platform is probably centrist, although he was part of NK government, he was always a moderate that's why a lot of politicians support his candidacy (not only PJ, also from UCR, provincial parties). Lavagna wanted a "Mario Monti-like scenario" where he as an indepedent, technocrat was going to be the candidate of unity government in the need of consensus or something. He doesn't want to compete in primaries with the other candidates of the non-k peronism. The thing is, he polls 8-10% so nobody will give up their their candidacy for that. There are even rumours that he won't run, which makes sense: he has a positive image in general and he is really old, so it doesn't make sense to lead a government that will be pretty difficult due to the economic circumstances and "burn" his capital  if he has no real chances to win. 

[samm5]

What are the odds that Macri wins reelection ?

Probably 50-50 now, mainly because everybody thinks Cristina will run, so a lot of anti-k voters who are "angry" with Macri will probably vote him anyway to prevent a CFK government. But there is pessimism in the ruling coalition and the electorate in general. They really need the economy and the exchange rate to remain relatively stable until August (date of the primaries, which are compulsatory here so it's like a first round)

[Mike88]

Cristina Kirchner will not run for President... but for Vice-President instead. Alberto Fernández, former chief of state of Néstor Kirchner, will run for President.

[Walmart_shopper]

Cristina Kirchner will not run for President... but for Vice-President instead. Alberto Fernández, former chief of state of Néstor Kirchner, will run for President.

Wow. So bye-bye Macri.

[samm5]

Yeah, it was announced this morning by her in her facebook page i think. Clearly a bad situation for Macri and Cambiemos. Some analysts suggest this move tries to motivate a united candidacy in the bulk of the peronist camp, some of them won't follow (Pichetto, Urtubey, Lavagna, etc) but it changes the strategies of the different actors. If they can actually expand this front, i think they could even win in the first round because the constitution has a "trick" where if you end up with at least 40% and the difference with the second place is 10% or more (40%-30% for example), a ballotage is not neccesary.

It's going to be interesting to see if the "plan V" (put Vidal as the candidate of Cambiemos instead of Macri. the majority of the economic establishment, foreign investors and some voices inside Cambiemos are keen to these idea because she polls better than him) could be a reality now since Cristina is not running.

The next important event to watch is the convention of the UCR. They will discuss the posibility to remain as a coalition partner in Cambiemos or not. I think they will.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Lmao she really went and didn’t do it didn’t she.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Cristina Kirchner will not run for President... but for Vice-President instead. Alberto Fernández, former chief of state of Néstor Kirchner, will run for President.

Are people going to be...fooled by this? I heard Massa’s said he’s open to a coalition with her of some sort (although the other Peronists apparently aren’t), but is this going to change anyone’s mind re: voting for her/Fernández or not?

[samm5]

Cristina Kirchner will not run for President... but for Vice-President instead. Alberto Fernández, former chief of state of Néstor Kirchner, will run for President.

Are people going to be...fooled by this? I heard Massa’s said he’s open to a coalition with her of some sort (although the other Peronists apparently aren’t), but is this going to change anyone’s mind re: voting for her/Fernández or not?

Remember the government has a really bad image in general this is not 2015 where people where sick and tired of her and there was expectation in Macri, because the cambiemos experiment kinda blow up, there's been a resurge of her image beyond her hard core base. The idea of a united opposition i think is an expectation of a large part of the electorate, and this lights a hope for many to see that she is going to be "more moderate", open to alliances with other sectors and take a "step back", but we don't know yet if that's the case or is a medvedev/putin situation

besides that, she is sending much more moderate messages to investors, her team of economists criticize the government and austerity in media, but are not proposing cutting ties with the IFM or declare default and not paying debt. It's more like a 2007-2009 early Cristina than the much more hardcore "chavez style" of her second mandate. But again, is a "real change" or part of the campaign? it's early to know.

In the next weeks we'll start to see some polls i guess

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Cristina Kirchner will not run for President... but for Vice-President instead. Alberto Fernández, former chief of state of Néstor Kirchner, will run for President.

Are people going to be...fooled by this? I heard Massa’s said he’s open to a coalition with her of some sort (although the other Peronists apparently aren’t), but is this going to change anyone’s mind re: voting for her/Fernández or not?

Remember the government has a really bad image in general this is not 2015 where people where sick and tired of her and there was expectation in Macri, because the cambiemos experiment kinda blow up, there's been a resurge of her image beyond her hard core base. The idea of a united opposition i think is an expectation of a large part of the electorate, and this lights a hope for many to see that she is going to be "more moderate", open to alliances with other sectors and take a "step back", but we don't know yet if that's the case or is a medvedev/putin situation

besides that, she is sending much more moderate messages to investors, her team of economists criticize the government and austerity in media, but are not proposing cutting ties with the IFM or declare default and not paying debt. It's more like a 2007-2009 early Cristina than the much more hardcore "chavez style" of her second mandate. But again, is a "real change" or part of the campaign? it's early to know.

In the next weeks we'll start to see some polls i guess

All right, thanks. I’ve just been seeing stuff about how society’s become more polarized; I hadn’t heard about the resurgence in her own image.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Roberto Lavagna officially enters the race, no word yet on whether he will run in the Alternativa Federal primary.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Roberto Lavagna officially enters the race, no word yet on whether he will run in the Alternativa Federal primary.

Aaaaand (no surprise) he won’t.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Lavagna officially launched his new party, Consenso 19 , outside of Alternativa Federal

And Massa is still undecided on whether he should run for Alternativa Federal or a broader Peronista front with kirchnerism.

I saw an interview with Pichetto last night and he was practically on the verge of crying, that's how much of a mess AF has become in these last couple of weeks

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Massa and Alberto Fernández will meet tomorrow

Pichetto (PJ, one of the leaders of Alternativa until today ) will be Macri's VP candidate

Urtubey is the only one left of (the now a lot smaller and less relevant) Alternativa's presidential candidates, VP candidate still unknown

FIT and MST agreed to get into a coalition with each other

There are talks about allowing governors to be on more than one coalition's ballots, which is obviously trying to help Maria Eugenia Vidal (Pro-Cambiemos) attempt at being reelected as Governor of Buenos Aires Province

Tomorrow is the day for coalitions to be officially registered (cierre de listas) at the national level and the 22nd will be the last day for nominating individual candidates and ballots

[LoneStarDem]

This is turning into a soap opera.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wait, Macri is dropping Michetti as VP?

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Wait, Macri is dropping Michetti as VP?

Yes, this part wasn't particularly surprising, as Michetti is very dull, usually not very focused on policy, she doesn't get Macri any new voters, the UCR never liked here and in the odd case where she speaks about anything she makes the government look worse

[RodPresident]

Wait, Macri is dropping Michetti as VP?

Yes, this part wasn't particularly surprising, as Michetti is very dull, usually not very focused on policy, she doesn't get Macri any new voters, and in the odd case where she speaks about anything she makes the government looks worse

She doesn't help anyway. Same constituency, same region. At least Pichetto can attract some Peronist barons from hinterlands.

[Velasco]

The Macri-Pichetto ticket is very Argentinian. Miguel Ángel Pichetto is a Peronist who sided with Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in the past, but now he is far from La Presidenta and leads a non-K Justicialist faction in the Senate. The official statement has mentions to consensus building, "generosity" and "patriotism". Macri says Pichetto is a "statesman". That's lip service, idle talk. People endorsing Macri in the belief that he's a sort of anti-peronist champion must be confused or disappointed.

I haven't been following this race.  I know Macri is very unpopular, but ignore who could be the winning horse. Is there a clear favourite, or a group of well placed candidates? Maybe it's too early...

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

I haven't been following this race.  I know Macri is very unpopular, but ignore who could be the winning horse. Is there a clear favourite, or a group of well placed candidates? Maybe it's too early...

The main contenders are clearly Fernandez-Fernandez and Macri (both with numbers from the low to high 30s), with most polls giving the kirchneristas the lead  (although Macri is getting closer in recent polls), with everyone else getting under 10%

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Presidential ballots:

Cambiemos Juntos por el Cambio: Mauricio Macri (Pro) - Miguel Ángel Pichetto (PJ)

Unidad Ciudadana/Frente Patriótico Frente de Todos:
         •Alberto Fernández - Cristina Fernánde de Kirchner
         •Sergio Massa (with Natalia De La Sota , daughter of the late governor of Córdoba as a potential VP candidate)
        •Daniel Scioli- VP not yet announced (I completely forgot that he's running)
        •Guillermo Moreno - Pablo Challú, although they'll probably be forced to run outside of this coalition

Consenso Federal 19 2030: Roberto Lavagna - Juan Manuel Urtubey

Alternativa Federal: Juan Manuel Urtubey - VP not yet announced

FIT+MST Unidad: Nicolás Del Caño (PTS, FIT) - Romina Del Plá (PO, FIT) [left wing alliance]

Frente Despertar: José Luis Espert (Partido Libertario) - VP not yet announced, he's trying to get celebrity nutiritionist doctor Alberto Cormillot as his ballot partner

Nuevo MAS: Manuela Castañeira - Eduardo Mulhall [left wing]

Partido NOS: Juan José Gómez Centurión - VP not yet announced
[nationalist, hardcore socially conservative, close to Evangelical churches and the pro-life movement]

Frente Patriota Bandera Vecinal: Alejandro Biondini - Enrique Venturino [far righ])

Partido Autonomista Nacional: "Pocho" Romero Feris - VP not yet announced [quasi-perennial candidate]

A.A.L.I.S.A. : Maurico Yattah - VP not yet announced (perennial candidate) ? Maybe he will run for Jefe de Gobierno (mayor/governor) of Buenos Aires City

[Velasco]

I haven't been following this race.  I know Macri is very unpopular, but ignore who could be the winning horse. Is there a clear favourite, or a group of well placed candidates? Maybe it's too early...

The main contenders are clearly Fernandez-Fernandez and Macri (both with numbers from the low to high 30s), with most polls giving the kirchneristas the lead  (although Macri is getting closer in recent polls), with everyone else getting under 10%

I should have imagined it was going to be like that. I'd like there was a dark horse somewhere, but it seems unlikely. The list of candidates that you have posted above is not very promising. Personally I'd go for Lavagna, but maybe he's too old. Guess that I'll begin to follow the race this summer. Thank you for the information.

How about Lousteau and the other progressives? Any sign of life there?

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

I haven't been following this race.  I know Macri is very unpopular, but ignore who could be the winning horse. Is there a clear favourite, or a group of well placed candidates? Maybe it's too early...

The main contenders are clearly Fernandez-Fernandez and Macri (both with numbers from the low to high 30s), with most polls giving the kirchneristas the lead  (although Macri is getting closer in recent polls), with everyone else getting under 10%

I should have imagined it was going to be like that. I'd like there was a dark horse somewhere, but it seems unlikely. The list of candidates that you have posted above is not very promising. Personally ai'd go for Lavagna, but maybe he's too old. Guess that I'll begin to follow the race this summer. Thank you for the information.

How about Lousteau and the other progressives? Any sign of life there?

Alternativa Federal was the possible dark horse, but after all the internal mess they've gone through this last month they've only been left with the weakest of their 3 presidential candiates and Lavagna got a lot of bad publicity after his rejection to participate in the AF PASO, and they both Alternativa and Lavagna lost any major potential

Cambiemos wants Lousteau to be their ballot's lead candidate in the Buenos Aires City Senate election

Lifschitz (Partido Socialista) and Stolbizer (GEN) are endorsing Lavagna, while Pino Solanas (Proyecto Sur) and Victoria Donda are now kirchneristas

Donda will run for Jefe de Gobierno (mayor/Governor) of Buenos Aires City for a left-wing coalition within Unidad Ciudadana. Mariano Recalde (ir maybe Matias Lammens) will be the mainstream kirchnerista candidate for that post in the PASO

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

The media are reporting a coalition between Lavagna and Urtubey, with Lavagna as presidential candidate and Urtubey as VP

Alberto Fernández and Sergio Massa agreed to each presenting their own internal ballot in the PASO primaries, Cristina is opposed to Massa participating in the PASO

[LoneStarDem]

Any debates scheduled ?