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  Argentina general elections, 27 October 2019. Open Primaries 11 August
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Author Topic: Argentina general elections, 27 October 2019. Open Primaries 11 August  (Read 6564 times)
samm5
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« Reply #50 on: June 12, 2019, 02:24:19 pm »


Not yet, but as far as i know, debates are now regulated by law so all major presidential candidates will have to attend. The primaries are the 9th of august so probably a couple of weeks prior i imagine...

As it was said before, Alternativa Federal blew up. J.M. Urtubey has confirmed himself he is the VP of Lavagna. Also the trotskyist announced their candidacy today: Del Caño - Del Pla.
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RodPresident
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« Reply #51 on: June 12, 2019, 02:36:59 pm »

Some questions:
Which is rationality behind Massa and Scioli runnings? Does the 2nd placed in PASO replace main ticket if anythings happens?
Wouldn't Scioli or Massa better running for BA governorship. I know that Vidal is favourite but this is more winnable than fighting with Cristina?
Wouldn't Lavagna better as mentor to a Massa-Lousteau ticket?
Will Hacemos por Cordoba follow Fernandez-Fernandez if Massa loses?
What is UCR thinking about being dropped for Pichetto?
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∀lex
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« Reply #52 on: June 12, 2019, 05:25:50 pm »

Some questions:
Which is rationality behind Massa and Scioli runnings? Does the 2nd placed in PASO replace main ticket if anythings happens?
Massa still wants to have a chance of being elected as president, I don't know why Scioli Is still running, and everyone forgot about his run
Yes, that's what happens for the Presidential duo, but not with the Congress candidates (bit it's unlikely that they'll have more than one sub-list for Congress)
Wouldn't Scioli or Massa better running for BA governorship. I know that Vidal is favourite but this is more winnable than fighting with Cristina?
Both have national ambitions, especially Massa who never wanted to be on the Province's government. Yes, I'd agree that both are better candidates than the current Kirchnerista formula of Kicillof-Magario.
And Cristina is ruthless at opposing candidates that she doesn't support in the race for the Governorship of Buenos Aires (aka why they chose an awful candidate in 2015 and lost against Vidal)
Wouldn't Lavagna better as mentor to a Massa-Lousteau ticket?
Probably yes, but egos are a big thing and both Massa and Lousteau hace had relatively large  political careers in important positions (for Massa, Director of the Social Security Agency, Chief of the Cabinet of Ministers, Congressman and leader of the 3rd largest electoral block, and Lousteau has been Minister of the Treasury, President of Banco Provincia, Congressman, Ambassador to the US and having been the only person with the ability to win the Jefatura de Gobierno from Pro) and they both shown a lot more respect for internal democracy than Lavagna
Also, I don't think that Massa and Lousteau have any special relation with each other
ill Hacemos por Cordoba follow Fernandez-Fernandez if Massa loses? Not likely (even if Massa somehow wins) , they prefer having decently good relations with all major blocks and Córdoba is the most anti-kirchnerista province, and cordobeses especially dislike Cristina
What is UCR thinking about being dropped for Pichetto?
Quite a few leaders liked it (or didn't care) as they wanted to expand Cambiemos and will likely use this to get more important roles in the provinces, and in Congress), others didn't
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Alex
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« Reply #53 on: June 12, 2019, 11:31:51 pm »
« Edited: August 08, 2019, 08:58:00 pm by ∀lex »

Electoral coalitions at the national level

Juntos por el Cambio: Pro (Macri's party),Unión Cívica Radical (historically one of the 2 large parties, originally radical liberalism, currently anywhere from center-left to center-right, but generally more social democratic than Pro), Coalición Cívica (the party of Congresswoman for Buenos Aires City Lilita Carrió), and a few minor parties, including 2 parties that were in Alternativa Federal

Frente de Tod☀️s: Partido Justicialista (the old Peronista party, currently mostly representing the governors' interests), Unidad Ciudadana (kirchnerismo), Frente Renovador (Massa), Somos (slightly populist left wing, Victoria Donda), Proyecto Sur (center left to left wing, Pino Solanas), Compromiso Federal (Rodríguez Saá, governors of San Luis), Nuevo Encuentro (the party for policy-centered and more left wing idealistic kirchneristas) and minor Kirchnerista, center-left, labor and communist (ML) parties
        
Consenso Federal 2030: Unión Federal (former members of Alternativa Federal, close to Urtubey), Partido Socialista, Tercera Posición (peronismo, led by labor union leader Luis Barrionuevo and his wife Graciela Camaño) GEN (center-left, Stolbizer), Libres del Sur  (slightly populist left wing, Victoria Donda's old party), Partido Demócrata Cristiano, with support from a few anti-Cambiemos members of the UCR

Frente de Izquierda - Unidad[/i]: Frente de Izquierda de los Trabajadores (Partido Obrero, Partido de los Trabajadores Socialista, Izquierda Socialista), Movimiento Socialista de los Trabajadores [all of them being trotskyist parties]

Frente Despertar: UCeDe (a fiscally conservative party that used to be relevant in the 80s and 90s), Unir (very right wing Peronismo, changes alliances in each single election) and informal support from Partido Libertario

Nuevo MAS (the other Trotskyist party)

Frene NOS: Fuerza Republicana (a very conservative and nationalist party from Tucumán Province, where its leader recently got 13% in the provincial election) and a few no-name right wing parties, with informal support from Valores para mí País (very socially conservative [pro-life, transphobic, anti "gender education", anti sex-ed]) [the coalition is fiscally conservative and very socially conservative]

Frente Patriota Bandera Vecinal (far right, nationalist, anti immigration, socially conservative, a lot more peronista/populist on the economy than other right wing parties, formerly neonazi]

Partido Autonomista Nacional (social conservative, pro-life, led by a quasi-perennial candidate]

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FredLindq
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« Reply #54 on: June 13, 2019, 12:28:04 am »

So all the Peronistas has come togheter i FDT i.e. Kirchner, Massa and Saa?!They must be really afraid of Macri winning a second term.
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« Reply #55 on: June 13, 2019, 06:05:23 am »

So all the Peronistas has come togheter i FDT i.e. Kirchner, Massa and Saa?!They must be really afraid of Macri winning a second term.

The Rodriguez Saa have never been all that relevant outside of their province, despite their fairly high results in some national elections, and they've only allied with Cristina when they were on the verge of losing to their deputy Governor who allied himself with Cambiemos.

Pichetto, Macri's VP candidate, is a Senator for the Partido Justicialista since 2001 and had been a very important Ally of the Kirchners as President of the Partido Justicialista caucus in the Senate. After Macri son in 2015, Pichetto formed his own caucus with a large block of anti-Cristina  PJ senators. And was the Mastermind behind Alternativa Federal

Urtubey is a member of the PJ, and was the leader of the party's caucus in the House of Representatives during Nestor Kirchner's presidency, and the was elected as Governor of Salta for the Frente para la Victoria (the Kirchnerista coalition)

Lavagna has always identified himself as a peronista and I allied with some Peronista labor Unión leaders, despite often allying himself with the UCR and trying to build an image that transcends the traditional parties
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Alex
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« Reply #56 on: June 13, 2019, 06:20:26 am »

In the City of Buenos Aires, Lousteau's allies (the UCR and Partido Socialista) integrated into Juntos por el Cambio



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Velasco
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« Reply #57 on: June 13, 2019, 09:47:28 am »

Wow, the coalitions are more Argentinian than ever

I see there's no other choice for me but endorsing the good old Roberto Lavagna, despite he has picked an awful partner

In the City of Buenos Aires, Lousteau's allies (the UCR and Partido Socialista) integrated into Juntos por el Cambio

Lousteau allied to Macri. Donda and Solanas converted to kirchnerismo

To be honest, the scenario in the capital city looks depressing
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« Reply #58 on: June 13, 2019, 10:36:35 am »

Wow, the coalitions are more Argentinian than ever

I see there's no other choice for me but endorsing the good old Roberto Lavagna, despite he has picked an awful partner

In the City of Buenos Aires, Lousteau's allies (the UCR and Partido Socialista) integrated into Juntos por el Cambio

Lousteau allied to Macri. Donda and Solanas converted to kirchnerismo

To be honest, the scenario in the capital city looks depressing

Yeah, I agree on both. At least Larreta is a pretty decent Jefe de Gobierno

I hope that the non-kirchnerista center-left present there own sub-list for the legislature and maybe even Representatives within Juntos por el Cambio

Luis Zamora (AyL) or FI-Unidad may have a real chance of getting one Representative for the City otherwise
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Alex
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« Reply #59 on: June 16, 2019, 05:30:13 pm »
« Edited: June 18, 2019, 07:23:08 am by ∀lex »

Today elections were held in 4 provinces: Santa Fe [the third largest province by population], San Luis, Formosa and Tierra del Fuego. Despite the geographically largest electrical blackdown in the country's history affecting every province other than TDF (which, as an island, isn't connected to the national electrical grid, the electoral procesa developed without any huge inconveniences.
Most of these elections will be very regional, and some candidates don't have strong loyalty to national coalitions

Santa Fe usually has very close elections, with the winner often being unpredictable late at night. It looks like Bonfatti will win, but Perrotti will be very close and Corral will be a distant third.

Frente Progresista: Antonio Bonfatti (P. Socialista)-Victoria Tejeda (UCR) : Partido Socialista, Libres del Sur, GEN,  P. Intransigente
Frente Juntos: Omar Perotti (Partido Justicialista)-Alejandra Ródenas (PJ): Partido Justicialista and a bunch of minor parties
Cambiemos: José Corral (Unión Cívica Radical)-Anita Martínez (Pro) : Pro, UCR, Coalición Cívica

Perotti won over the more kirchnerista María Eugenia Bielsa in the PJ, and despite campaigning with Cristina he may later align with either of the main national coalitions

Neither Frente de Izquierda, Nueva Izquierda (MST), Alternativa Federal or Espacio Grande (conservatives) got the 1.5% needed in the open primaries to get to the actual elections

San Luis has traditionally been governed by the Rodriguez Saa brothers, Adolfo (1983-2001, Senator since 2005) and Alberto (2001-2011, 2015-now). All three major candidates have been governors of the province and allies until recently
Frente Unidad Justicialista: Alberto Rodriguez Saa (PJ, Compromiso Federal)  -Eduardo Mones Ruiz: PJ, Compromiso Federal, Partido de la Victoria
San Luis Unido: Claudio Poggi Avanzar (Poggi's party), Pro, UCR, Libres del Sur
Juntos por la Gente: Adolfo Rodriguez Saa (PJ/CF)-Marcelo Sosa  without the formal support of any major party

The official version (and they one that's promoted by the brothers) is that they disagreed on how close they should be to Kirchnerismo, to which they Alberto RS had been getting closer after Poggi (who was voted as a stand-in for the Rodriguez Saa
as El Alberto was running for president) turned to Cambiemos.

In Formosa, Insfrán will get his seventh term (1995-present) in the most clientelistic out of all provinces. He has always gotten over 70% of the votes since 2003.

Partido Justicialista: Gildo Insfrán (PJ) - Eber Solis (PJ) : Partido Justicialista, Frente para la Victoria and a million small parties
Frente Amplio Formoseño: Adrián Floro Bogado (PJ)- Iván Kaluk (UCR): UCR, Pro, Nuevo País (Bogado), P. Socialista

Tierra del Fuego

Unidad Fueguina: Rosana Bertone [inc.] (PJ) - Juan Arcando (PJ) : Partido Justicialista, Unidad Ciudadana
FORJA+MPF: Gustavo Melilla (Forja) - Mónica Urquiza (Mov. Popular Fueguino): Concertación FORJA (kirchneristas who were members of the UCR), Movimiento Popular Fueguino (regionalists), Nuevo Encuentro and minor center-left and Kirchnerista parties
Ser Fueguino: Juan Rodríguez (UCR) - Fernando Gliubich : UCR, Pro
TDF has a second round if neither candidate gets 50+% of the votes
Both Bertone and Melella have stated their support for the Fernández-Fernández ballot, but Bertone is their favorite
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SunriseAroundTheWorld
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« Reply #60 on: June 16, 2019, 06:04:43 pm »

The Macri-Pichetto ticket is very Argentinian. Miguel Ángel Pichetto is a Peronist who sided with Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in the past, but now he is far from La Presidenta and leads a non-K Justicialist faction in the Senate. The official statement has mentions to consensus building, "generosity" and "patriotism". Macri says Pichetto is a "statesman". That's lip service, idle talk. People endorsing Macri in the belief that he's a sort of anti-peronist champion must be confused or disappointed.

I haven't been following this race.  I know Macri is very unpopular, but ignore who could be the winning horse. Is there a clear favourite, or a group of well placed candidates? Maybe it's too early...

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∀lex
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« Reply #61 on: June 16, 2019, 11:44:26 pm »
« Edited: June 17, 2019, 09:31:54 am by ∀lex »

Santa Fe

Frente Juntos: Omar Perotti (Partido Justicialista)-Alejandra Rodenas (PJ):   40.52
Frente Progresista: Antonio Bonfatti (P. Socialista)-Victoria Tejeda (UCR) : 36.34
Cambiemos: José Corral (Unión Cívica Radical)-Anita Martínez (Pro) :   18.96

Frente Progresista lost to the United PJ after 3 terms in office

San Luis
Frente Unidad Justicialista: Alberto Rodriguez Saa (PJ, Compromiso Federal)  -Eduardo Mones Ruiz (PJ): 42.18
San Luis Unido: Claudio Poggi (Avanzar)-Enrique Ponce (S.L. Somos Todos) : 34.65
Juntos por la Gente: Adolfo Rodriguez Saa (PJ/CF)-Marcelo Sosa: 22.07

Formosa

Partido Justicialista: Gildo Insfrán (PJ) - Eber Solis (PJ) : 70.86
Frente Amplio Formoseño: Adrián Floro Bogado (PJ)- Iván Kaluk (UCR): 28.66
Partido Obrero: Natalia Coronel - Cristian Villasboa: 0.48

Tierra del Fuego (90% counted)

FORJA+MPF: Gustavo Melilla (Forja) - Mónica Urquiza (Mov. Popular Fueguino): 50.90
Unidad Fueguina: Rosana Bertone [inc.] (PJ) - Juan Arcando (PJ) : 37.80
Ser Fueguino: Juan Rodríguez (UCR) - Fernando Gliubich : 4.10


Frente de Todos and its allies won all of yesterday's gubernatorial elections

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Velasco
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« Reply #62 on: June 17, 2019, 04:33:53 am »
« Edited: June 17, 2019, 09:00:03 am by Velasco »

Santa Fe

Frente Juntos: Omar Perotti (Partido Justicialista)-Alejandra Rodenas (PJ):  40.52
Frente Progresista: Antonio Bonfatti (P. Socialista)-Victoria Tejeda (UCR) : 36.34
Cambiemos: José Corral (Unión Cívica Radical)-Anita Martínez (Pro) :  18.96

Frente Progresista lost to the United PJ after 3 terms in office

San Luis
Frente Unidad Justicialista: Alberto Rodriguez Saa (PJ, Compromiso Federal)  -Eduardo Mones Ruiz (PJ): 42.18
San Luis Unido: Claudio Poggi (Avanzar)-Enrique Ponce (S.L. Somos Todos) : 34.65
Juntos por la Gente: Adolfo Rodriguez Saa (PJ/CF)-Marcelo Sosa: 22.07

So finally the only socialist stronghold fell. There were insecurity problems years ago related to drug trafficking in Rosario, the largest city of Santa Fe province. I believe that was an issue in the previous election. Would you say the situation aggravated these years and (if so) influenced the results?

Regarding San Luis, the decadence of Adolfo Rodriguez Saá shocks me. It's not only that he's a former governor: he was president of Argentina for a brief period. This electoral bashing is pitiful and I wonder why he didn't withdraw, in order to avoid being humiliated*

To be honest, I didn't read the result correctly with my phone this morning. I thought Adolfo Rodríguez Saá got 2.07 instead of 22.07. That makes a difference Wink + Tongue

I'll have to look for that dispute within the Rodríguez Saá clan. What happened between them?
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« Reply #63 on: June 17, 2019, 09:25:46 am »
« Edited: June 17, 2019, 09:28:55 am by ∀lex »

The official version (and they one that's promoted by the brothers) is that they disagreed on how close they should be to Kirchnerismo, to which they Alberto RS had been getting closer after Poggi turned to Cambiemos. But there's also the possibility that they knew that if they performed this weird strategy, they'd win over Poggi as they captured most of the media's attention on this "fight" and reduce Poggi's airtime

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samm5
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« Reply #64 on: June 18, 2019, 01:09:26 pm »

Sergio Massa (third place in the 2015 elections, part of AF until a couple of months ago) has confirmed he'll not run in the primaries against Fernandez-Fernandez, instead he will be first on the list for the chamber of deputies/representatives in the province of Buenos Aires. There's a tradition that the first deputy of the list of the winning party from BA province is elected president of the lower house of the congress, so probably that's his "institutional role" if they win
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« Reply #65 on: June 21, 2019, 09:57:18 am »
« Edited: August 08, 2019, 09:16:55 pm by ∀lex »

    By tomorrow at midnight (i.e. 22 June at 23:59) parties will have to confirm the candidates that will run for the national elections (President and VP, Senators and Representatives) and those that will run for other elections that take place on the same date as the national elections

    Eight (of the 24) provinces will vote for 3 senators each (2 for the largest party and 1 for the second largest one), and all provinces will vote for roughly half of their total representatives in the House of Representatives (Diputados), which are determined through Proportional Representation via the D'Hondt system

Buenos Aires City
-Juntos por el Cambio has  confirmed all their main candidates for the country's capital

Senate: Martin Lousteau (UCR), Guadalupe Tagliaferri (Pro), Mario Quintana (an ally of Coalición Cívica's Lilita Carrió)

Lousteau (who only recently allied himself with Cambiemos, and was their main opponent in the City 4 years ago) wanted a young, socially-minded pro-choice woman as his running mate, and she got one in Tagliaferri, the City's Minister for Human Development (in charge of welfare and other social inclusion issues)

The third candidate [a replacement in case that any of the first 2 resign], Quintana is a businessman and politician,  former Deputy Chief of Cabinet (2015-2018), founder and chairman of an important investment fund

Representatives (12): Maximiliano Ferraro (Coalición Cívica) [city legislator and president of the CC], Victoria Morales Gorleri (Pro) [Forner secretary of Cardinal Bergoglio, city legislator (2008-2015) and currently working in the Ministry from Social Development, who is also a pro-life activist], Emiliano Yacobitti (UCR) [the controversial informal leader of the UCR's university wing] Mariana Zuvic (Coalición Cívica) [a close ally of Carrió and wife of Eduardo Costa, businessman and Senator for Santa Cruz], Álvaro González (Pro) [renewing his seat], Pablo Tonelli (Pro) [a long-time ally of Macri, member of the Council of Magistrates, re-renewing his seat] Dina Rezinovsky (Pro) [Evangelical leader and pro-life activist]

Jefe and Vicejefe de Gobierno (Mayor/Governor): Horacio Rodriguez Larreta (Pro) [inc.] - Daniel Santilli (Pro) [inc.]

-Frente de Tod☀️s

Senators: Mariano Recalde (FPV) , Dora Barranco
Recalde is one of the leaders of La Cámpora, the Kirchnerista youth wing and militant organization, city legislator, former president of Aerolíneas Argentinas, FPV candidate for Jefe de Gobierno in 2015, Barranco is a former director of Conicet (the national scientific council) and pro-choice activist

Representatives: Pino Solanas (Proyecto Sur), Paula Penacca (FPV) [city legislator and militant in La Cámpora], Itaí Hagman (Patria Grande) [one of the leaders of Patria Grande, a left-wing kirchnerista coalition], candidate for Representative in 2015 and for city legislator in 2015], Victoria Donda (Somos), Eduardo Valdés (PJ) [Member of Parlasur, former ambassador to the Vatican, long-time friend of the Kirchners],
Carla Pitiot (Frente Renovador[looking to renew her seat], Oscar Trotta [former director of the Garrahan Children's Hospital], and 4 others including a member of one of the traditional PJ families, Francisco Cafiero

Both Pino and Donda are progressives and former important members of several non-kirchnerista center-left coalitions in the city and were until recently very critical of kirchnerismo, Pino is a current senator [2013-2019], elected as the running mate of Carrió, and former Representative and movie director with a long political career. Donda is a daughter of desaparecidos, a Representative for the City [2015-now], former Representative for Buenos Aires Province and former leader of Libres del Sur

Jefe de Gobierno: Matías Lammens (PJ), a recent newcomer to the political sphere, chairman of the San Lorenzo football club (elected as a stand-in to Marcelo Tinelli). Until a few months ago he was in an alliance with Lavagna, before going to Kirchnerismo. He's trying to run a center to center-left campaign with little to no connection with the more hardcore Kirchnerista groups

-Consenso Federal 2030:
[There was also a second list, supported by union leader Luis Barrionuevo (PJ) and former Representative Stolbizer (GEN), but it was rejected due to infighting within Consenso]
Senators: Ramiro Marra  [stockbroker and YouTube economist], Luciana Romero [I think she's an economist]

Representatives: Marco Lavagna [economist, Representative for the City (2015-2019], son of Roberto Lavagna], Maia Volcovinsky [Justice-workers' labor unionist], Carlos Hourbeigt [an ally of Lavagna], Lucila Bueti Piorno[accountant, currently working in the city government], Sergio Nahabetian (APPS) [provincial representative in Buenos Aires Province (2005-2009) for Lopez Murphy's Recrear, Disability Director at the Province's Ombudsman (2010-2017)], and others


Jefe de Gobierno: Matías Tombolini (APPS) [economist and failed candidate for Representative in 2015 for Massa's 1País]

- Frente de Izquierda-Unidad

Senators: Jorge Adaro (Izquierda Socialista) [leader of a minor teacher's union],

Representatives: Myriam Bregman (PTS) [city legislator [2017-2021], Representative for Buenos Aires Province (2017-2021), 2015 VP candidate], Marcelo Ramal (PO) [president of the students' union of the Universidad de Buenos Aires], Vanina Biasi (PO)
Jefe de Gobierno: Gabriel Solano (Partido Obrero)[leader of the PO, city legislator (2017-2021)] - Vanesa Gagliardi (MST) [she has a high-ranking position in Adaro's union]

-Unite-Despertar
Senators: Raul Racana (Unir)[a higher-up in this nationalist party], Eliana Scialabba [economist]
Representatives: Nazareno Etchepare [former lawyer of Carrió, former member of Pro],
Luciana Minassian [lawyer and university professor]
Jefa and Vicejefe de Gobierno: Roberto Valerstein  (Unite por la Libertad y la Dignidad) [TV and theater producer]  - Manuel Adorni [economist]

[Update (July 4): Margarita Delvecchio, Despertar's original candidate for Jefe de Gobierno got out of the race for personal reasons, over some incompatibility between her current job and campaigning]

-Autodeterminación y Libertad
(a left-wing/socialist party that only participates in elections in the City, and is less confrontational than FIT)
Senators: Sergio Sallustio, Cecilia Paul
epresentatives: Luis Zamora (leader of AyL, former Representative), Virginia Peyras
Jefa and Vicejefe de Gobierno: Marta Martínez  [city legislator (2017-2021)]- Sebastián Blanchard

-Nuevo MAS
Senator: Inés Zadunaisky [teacher and 2013 senator candidate for MAS]
Representatives: Marina Hidalgo Robles, Matías Brito, and 11 other candidates I couldn't find almost anything about
Jefe de Gobierno: Miguel Ángel Forte [sociology professor]

-El Movimiento (FP Bandera Vecinal)
Senator: Carlos Tórtora [blogger/journalist, Menem's Subsecretary of Internal Security]
Representatives: Horacio Ricciardelli [retired vice-commodore and anti-British conspiracy theorist]
Jefe and Vicejefa de Gobierno: Alejandro Fernández Roa [Evangelical leader] - Cintia Lozada [leader of BV's youth wing]

-Ciudad Celeste por la Vida y la familia: Democracia Cristiana, with support from color=#000097]Nos[/color] (DC were in Consenso, but they launched a pro-life "short ballot" after getting disappointed with their more centrist and progressive allies)
Jefe de Gobierno: Miguel Ángel Lacour [ENT doctor]
Senators: Ana María Martín de Parini [bioethicist, Obgyn, Evangelical leader], Alejandro Barceló [bioethicist and lawyer]
Representatives: Gabriel Ballerini  (Valores para mí País) [Baptist pastor, bioethicist theologist, pro-life activist], María de los Ángeles Mainardi [member of the Federal Network of Families, pro-life activist, former advisor to Compromiso Federal former senator Liliana Negre de Alonso], Leandro Rodríguez Lastra [doctor who was declared guilty for forcing a woman who had been raped to revert an attempted legal abortion]

-La Doctrina (Guillermo Moreno's ballot, they endorsed voting Fernández-Fernández for the presidential ballot)
Senator: Leonardo Fabré (PJ) (leader of the social security workers' union, failed candidate for Jefe de Gobierno for Moreno's party's less popular sub-list in 2015 [0.13%])
Representatives: Guillermo Moreno (PJ) [the very controversial kircherista secretary of commerce (officially a lower rank position) and later the economy attache to the Embassy at Italy (because he is pals with a good friend of Pope Francis)]
Jefe de Gobierno: Adrián Andreatta [pediatrician and failed candidate for Representative in Moreno's old party]
(I couldn't find  this list on the more updated sites)

Partido Autonomista Nacional
Senators: Ivana Papalardo
Representatives: Eduardo Awad [President Bar Association of the City of Buenos Aires]
Jefe and Vicejefe de Gobierno: Gabriel Bracesco [anti-immigrant, anti-feminist, anti-LGBT, banned Twitter "journalist"/personality] - Alejandro Sarubbi
[Update July 7: Bracesco's candidacy was rejected by the electoral justice]


Dignidad Popular (the party of Julio DeVido, Minister for Federal Planning and Infrastructure during the whole terms of Nestor and Cristina Kirchner, suspended Representative, currently in jail and banned for life from holding public office)

Frente Renovador Auténtico (IDK anything about this party, including if it's related to Massa's FR. Their first candidate for Representative was a candidate for El Movimiento-Bandera Vecinal in 2013)

Movimiento de Jubilados y Juventud-Misión Celeste (a no-name pro-life party)

Larreta will very likely be reelected

Lousteau, Tagliaferri and Recalde will be elected as senators


[In less relevant news, Daniel Scioli and Guillermo Moreno gave up on their presidential intentions and there will only be one list for the Frente de Todos in the PASO primaries, which means that at the Presidential level the PASO won't be nothing more than a very expensive opinion poll]

[/list]
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« Reply #66 on: June 23, 2019, 11:31:42 am »
« Edited: August 08, 2019, 08:14:06 pm by ∀lex »

Official presidential ballots:

Cambiemos Juntos por el Cambio: Mauricio Macri (Pro) - Miguel Ángel Pichetto (PJ)

The current president and Pichetto, a lifelong politician with a compulsive need of being on the government's side, Senator for Rio Negro since 2001, President of the Partido Justicialista caucus until his announcement and previously a Representative for the same province for 8 years. He was the main architect behind the failed Alternativa Federal, and he had led the "governors' wing" of the parliamentary PJ which helped Cambiemos un getting a lot of laws passed that they otherwise couldn't have had

Frente de Tod☀️s:
Alberto Fernández - Cristina Fernánde de Kirchner
Alberto F is another lifelong PJ politician, he was a vital figure in Nestor Kirchner's cabinet, as Chief of the Cabinet of Ministers during Nestor Kirchner and during the first year of Cristina's, before resigning in 2008 and being replaced with Sergio Massa. He distanced himself from kirchnerismo and in 2013 he joined Massa's Frente Renovador and he became a fierce critic of Cristina Fernández. He got back to his old party in late 2018 and he brought Massa with him

Consenso Federal 2030: Roberto Lavagna - Juan Manuel Urtubey[/color]
Lavagna Is a politician and economist active since the 1970s, he rose to prominence as  Economy Minister under Duhalde and Nestor Kirchner, a period in which the country recovered from the catastrophic effects of the 2001 crisis, he resigned in 2005 as his relationship with Nestor had been getting a lot more tense.  He ran for President in 2007 under the banner of the Union Cívica Radical and got the third place with 17% of the votes. In 2015 he joined Massa's presidential campaign.
Urtubey is the governor  (2007-2019) of the conservative northwestern province of Salta. He's also a former Representative and Senator for his province. During his first two terms as Governor he was an important ally, if often critical , of Cristina and Kirchnerismo in general. He got closer to Macri and Pichetto after the 2015 elections. He supported a lot of very socially conservative beliefs, but he's been trying to moderate his public image in recent years

Frente de Izquierda y de los Trabajadores - Unidad: Nicolás Del Caño (PTS, FIT) - Romina Del Plá (PO, FIT) [left wing alliance]

Del Caño is currently a Representative for Buenos Aires Province (2017-) and former Representative for Mendoza (2014), and he's one of the leaders and the public face of the Frente de Izquierda. Del Plá is also a Representative for BA Province.

Unite-Frente Despertar: José Luis Espert (Partido Libertario) - Luis Rosales

Espert is an economist and TV and print columnist, chairman and founder of the Partido Libertario and one of the few candidates for Despertar with socially liberal to moderate views (despite his extreme willingness to forming alliances with hard-right parties). Luis Rosales is a panellist in a cable news program, and was a Representative for Mendoza in the early 90s for a right-wing coalition and a candidate for that same position in 2013 for Pro

Nuevo MAS: Manuela Castañeira - Eduardo Mulhall [left wing]

Manuela Castañeira was the party's candidate for president in the 2015 elections (0.44%) and the first candidate for Representative for Buenos Aires Province under a coalition between MST and MAS. Mulhall is a metalworker and teacher and candidate for Governor of Buenos Aires in 2015

Partido NOS: Juan José Gómez Centurión - Cynthia Hotton [Valores para mí País]
[nationalist, hardcore socially conservative, close to Evangelical churches and the pro-life movement]

Comez Centurión was Custom's Director (2016-2017) and President of the Central Bank (2017- March 2019) under Macri, retired major Falklands veteran and a participant in the carapintada mutinees against the democratic government of Raul Alfonsín. Hotton is a former Representative for Buenos Aires City (2007-2011) [elected under the banner of Pro, she formed her own party (Valores) in 2009. The two of them are very socially conservative and very close to Evangelical churches (Hotton is Pentecostal) and to the most conservative Catholics

Frente Patriota Bandera Vecinal: Alejandro Biondini - Enrique Venturino [far right])

Biondini has been the leader of several nationalist and neonazi parties since 1990 (including being the führer of the National Workers' Party/Partido Nuevo Triunfo, which used a quasi-swastika symbol like Golden Dawn and the Nazi salute), perennial candidate. His running late is a retired lieutenant colonel, carapintada  and anti-vaxxer, and presidential candidate in 2003 (Modin) and candidate for Jefe de Gobierno in 2007 (also for Modin)

Movimiento de Acción Vecinal : Raúl Albarracín - Sergio Pastore [regional party from Córdoba Province]
Alabarracín was a co-founder of the Recrear party (a fiscally conservative party founded by Lopez Murphy, 2003 presidential candidate and Macri's first major ally) and former vice-president of Pro in Córdoba Province, and provincial representative, he was also a presidential candidate in 2015 (0.18%). Pastore was the MAV's presidential candidate in 2011

Partido Autonomista Nacional: "Pocho" Romero Feris - Guillermo Sueldo
Romero Feris is a former Governor of Corrientes (1983-87), Senator for the same province (1987-2001). In 2017 he ran for Representative for Buenos Aires City for his own party, despite being a total unknown outside of Corrientes. He's emphasizing (well, as much as someone like him is able to) his pro-life credentials.

[Minor update: Despertar lost the support of UNIR and bought another far-right party, Unite (whose leader is very close to Biondini)
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« Reply #67 on: July 14, 2019, 02:29:46 pm »

Macri has been catching up to Fernández-Fernández very quickly in recent weeks and many polls now indicate a very close first round, and also a very close second round


Opinaia (2-5 June, N=3210, online, quite accurate on 2015 and 2017)








Isonomía (a good polling company, with strong connections to Pro)

Fernandez 37%, Macri 34%, Lavagna 14%, Del Caño 5%, Espert 4%, Gómez Centurión 1%

(This is by far the highest result I've seen for Lavagna in the last couple of months)

Second round: Both Macri and Fernandez at 45% each, with 8% voting for neither


Opina Argentina (25-27 June N=1900, very accurate in their 2017 polls in BA Province)


Second round: Fernández 50.5%, Macri: 49.5%




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« Reply #68 on: July 26, 2019, 09:47:35 pm »

Provinces that will be voting for:

Senators                                                  Representatives                       Governors (today-end of 2019)
 

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« Reply #69 on: July 28, 2019, 08:38:55 am »
« Edited: August 01, 2019, 08:52:14 pm by ∀lex »

Here's an article in which Macri and Alberto F explain (quite briefly) their proposals in their own words

https://www.lanacion.com.ar/politica/los-candidatos-definieron-sus-propuestas-nid2271931


And here's another article with Lavagna's proposals

https://www.infobae.com/politica/2019/08/01/con-criticas-a-macri-lavagna-presento-sus-propuestas-economicas-cuales-son-los-principales-puntos/

[I'll probably translate the basics in the next couple of days]
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« Reply #70 on: August 01, 2019, 04:50:04 pm »
« Edited: August 01, 2019, 09:03:37 pm by ∀lex »

So, we're only 10 days away from the date of the PASO (Simultaneous and mandatory open primaries), probably the most expensive opinion poll in world history

Here's all the national electoral lists [President and VP, Senators and Representatives (Diputados)] in case anyone's interested in that https://www.electoral.gob.ar/boletas/boletas.php
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« Reply #71 on: August 11, 2019, 04:28:54 pm »
« Edited: August 11, 2019, 04:52:02 pm by samm5 »

Polling stations have officially closed across the country, around 75% turnout. The first results will be announced when 10% of the ballots of the five biggest provinces are counted. So i would say around 22/23 pm here (one hour later than NY)
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« Reply #72 on: August 11, 2019, 08:34:12 pm »



hahahahahahahahahaha
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« Reply #73 on: August 11, 2019, 08:55:14 pm »

With 80% of the ballots counted Fernandez 47,10% - Macri 32,48%. So basically they'll win the election, probably even by a widest margin since blank votes are not counted in the general election. The difference is more than double of what polls were saying lmao

Right-wing Gomez Centurión (NOS) is the surprise almost 3% and 5% in some provinces. He was polling 1-1,5%.
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« Reply #74 on: August 11, 2019, 09:08:05 pm »

Oh my. And I had even started to buy into Macri's apparent optimism - as in, losing by less than five points - despite my increasing disgust at his stunning inability to move away from Peronist economics and stuff like picking a Peronist VP.

Yeah, he's absolutely done. That has to be beyond humiliating.
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