Argentina general elections, 27 October 2019. Open Primaries 11 August

[samm5]

1) How much is the Nisman affair affecting Cristina's electoral prospects?

2) Is Lavagna running on a more economically centrist/left-leaning platform compared to previous dissident Peronists given his role as an economic advisor in Nestor Kirchner's cabinet?

1)- Nothing, the people who think she was part of his murder or something like that already hate her and won't vote for her, also is not a "big thing" for the electorate, probably there's still an investigation but it kinda faded away. In general people are worried (mainly) by the economic situation, specially inflation, the recession, unemployment, etc

2)-  His platform is probably centrist, although he was part of NK government, he was always a moderate that's why a lot of politicians support his candidacy (not only PJ, also from UCR, provincial parties). Lavagna wanted a "Mario Monti-like scenario" where he as an indepedent, technocrat was going to be the candidate of unity government in the need of consensus or something. He doesn't want to compete in primaries with the other candidates of the non-k peronism. The thing is, he polls 8-10% so nobody will give up their their candidacy for that. There are even rumours that he won't run, which makes sense: he has a positive image in general and he is really old, so it doesn't make sense to lead a government that will be pretty difficult due to the economic circumstances and "burn" his capital  if he has no real chances to win. 

[samm5]

What are the odds that Macri wins reelection ?

Probably 50-50 now, mainly because everybody thinks Cristina will run, so a lot of anti-k voters who are "angry" with Macri will probably vote him anyway to prevent a CFK government. But there is pessimism in the ruling coalition and the electorate in general. They really need the economy and the exchange rate to remain relatively stable until August (date of the primaries, which are compulsatory here so it's like a first round)

[samm5]

Yeah, it was announced this morning by her in her facebook page i think. Clearly a bad situation for Macri and Cambiemos. Some analysts suggest this move tries to motivate a united candidacy in the bulk of the peronist camp, some of them won't follow (Pichetto, Urtubey, Lavagna, etc) but it changes the strategies of the different actors. If they can actually expand this front, i think they could even win in the first round because the constitution has a "trick" where if you end up with at least 40% and the difference with the second place is 10% or more (40%-30% for example), a ballotage is not neccesary.

It's going to be interesting to see if the "plan V" (put Vidal as the candidate of Cambiemos instead of Macri. the majority of the economic establishment, foreign investors and some voices inside Cambiemos are keen to these idea because she polls better than him) could be a reality now since Cristina is not running.

The next important event to watch is the convention of the UCR. They will discuss the posibility to remain as a coalition partner in Cambiemos or not. I think they will.

[samm5]

Cristina Kirchner will not run for President... but for Vice-President instead. Alberto Fernández, former chief of state of Néstor Kirchner, will run for President.

Are people going to be...fooled by this? I heard Massa’s said he’s open to a coalition with her of some sort (although the other Peronists apparently aren’t), but is this going to change anyone’s mind re: voting for her/Fernández or not?

Remember the government has a really bad image in general this is not 2015 where people where sick and tired of her and there was expectation in Macri, because the cambiemos experiment kinda blow up, there's been a resurge of her image beyond her hard core base. The idea of a united opposition i think is an expectation of a large part of the electorate, and this lights a hope for many to see that she is going to be "more moderate", open to alliances with other sectors and take a "step back", but we don't know yet if that's the case or is a medvedev/putin situation

besides that, she is sending much more moderate messages to investors, her team of economists criticize the government and austerity in media, but are not proposing cutting ties with the IFM or declare default and not paying debt. It's more like a 2007-2009 early Cristina than the much more hardcore "chavez style" of her second mandate. But again, is a "real change" or part of the campaign? it's early to know.

In the next weeks we'll start to see some polls i guess

[samm5]

Any debates scheduled ?

Not yet, but as far as i know, debates are now regulated by law so all major presidential candidates will have to attend. The primaries are the 9th of august so probably a couple of weeks prior i imagine...

As it was said before, Alternativa Federal blew up. J.M. Urtubey has confirmed himself he is the VP of Lavagna. Also the trotskyist announced their candidacy today: Del Caño - Del Pla.

[samm5]

Sergio Massa (third place in the 2015 elections, part of AF until a couple of months ago) has confirmed he'll not run in the primaries against Fernandez-Fernandez, instead he will be first on the list for the chamber of deputies/representatives in the province of Buenos Aires. There's a tradition that the first deputy of the list of the winning party from BA province is elected president of the lower house of the congress, so probably that's his "institutional role" if they win

[samm5]

Polling stations have officially closed across the country, around 75% turnout. The first results will be announced when 10% of the ballots of the five biggest provinces are counted. So i would say around 22/23 pm here (one hour later than NY)

[samm5]

With 80% of the ballots counted Fernandez 47,10% - Macri 32,48%. So basically they'll win the election, probably even by a widest margin since blank votes are not counted in the general election. The difference is more than double of what polls were saying lmao

Right-wing Gomez Centurión (NOS) is the surprise almost 3% and 5% in some provinces. He was polling 1-1,5%.

[samm5]

Hilariously bad results for Macri. Little reason to believe he'll recover significantly when he's the incumbent and the economy isn't doing so hot right now. I guess he could hope Fernández falls a bit under 45% and he gains enough so a ballotage will be needed and he gets a bit more time, but still.

That's probably their goal but it's almost impossible, keep in mind that the results in the primaries take blank votes as part of the total. If you calculate the % of votes with only the valid votes (as in the general election in october) Fernandez is close to 49% and Macri to 33%. Even if turnout is a bit higher and some voters from third parties run to Macri he'll not pass 40% and Fernandez will not get less than 45%

In other news, there's turbelence in the markets with these results as they were expecting a much better result for Macri. Both bonds and the stock market fell and the USD is being sold between 50-60 pesos per dollar. It was 46,7 on friday.

[samm5]

Does anyone think that the abortion issue has a lot to do with the results, or is support for liberalization bipartisan enough to make this a seat-by-seat issue rather than a national one?

It was and is a relevant social topic but i don't think it was decesive in this election. In my opinion the economic situation was. Both Macri and Fernandez have pro-choice and pro-life legislators in their ballots. I do think that the abortion/nuclear family debate boosted Gomez Centurión party as he's not a public figure known by the electorate and he still got almost 3% almost 5% in some provinces.

[samm5]

I went to Argentina on vacation four months ago, and, out of curiousity, I looked up election results, and noted that it seemed like the center-right party did best in urban areas.  Isn't Capital Federal (BA City) the most right-wing area of the nation?

It's a stronghold of the non-peronist camp in general. But i wouldn't say it's right-wing in terms of social conservatism tough, more like in economic terms. As any other big cosmopolitan city it has a sizeable progressive voter base but it's divided on the peronist/kirchnerist voters and the more social-liberal voters.

Macri did well in urban areas and the wealthy rural regions in the center provinces in 2015. That was his core vote. He had a worst performance this election there. The rest of the provinces were not that competitive in the first place, and in the suburbs of BA (a stronghold for PJ as it has a lot of working class/low-income voters) the difference was much bigger than in 2015, they lost the majority of the districts they won the last election.

Also it was decisive that the peronist vote was divided in 2015 and 2017 and not now.

Not the inflation stuff, but there is a similar urban-rural divide in Brazil, with the Southeastern cities of Rio and Sao Paolo having given massive margins to Bolsonaro (or at least their states did).

Yeah it could be a good guide to try to understand the phenomenon here. The south/southeastern region of Brazil would be like the center region here + city of Buenos Aires.

[samm5]

According to La Nación, the projection of seats with the PASO results is the following

Chamber of Deputies (2019 seats in brackets)

Frente de Todos 117 (70)
Juntos por el Cambio (Macri and allies) 111 (48)
Non K peronists 8 (2)
Third Way (Lavagna's Consenso Federal) 6 (5)
Far Left (FIT) 2 (0)
Others 13 (5)
Total: 257

_{"Non K peronists" would win 2 seats in Córdoba (Gov Schiaretti's alliance)
"Others" are a number of provincial parties like the Civic Front for Santiago}

Senate

Frente de Todos 36 (14)
Juntos por el Cambio 28 (7)
Non K peronists 2 (0)
Third Way 1 (0)
Others 5 (3)
Total: 72 seats

I would also add that many categorized as "Other" will probably work with the FDT government so it's a virtual majority. It happened in previous administrations even with Macri. It depends on the legislation of course, but in general provincial parties are not really ideological, more like a vehicle of negotiation between their respective governments in exchange of "fiscal benefits" like public works or more money for their provincial budgets, etc.
 
I think the dynamic is in some aspects comparable with the relationship between canarian, basque, catalan parties with the national parties in spain but i'm not an expert in spanish politics u.u

Also, in contrast with the Kirchnerist era, the opposition is almost entirely in the same coalition now and not dispersed. However, they would probably spit after december in some degree, there are already a lot of political leaders angry with the electoral strategy that brought them into this mess specially within the UCR. When Cambiemos was formed they expected to be a partner in the government, which formally they are (they have some ministers in the cabinet) but their role was almost non-existent in terms of the important decisions, only being relevant supporting the government bills in the congress

[samm5]

Regarding leaders angry with Macri's strategy, I think Bs As Gov María Eugenia Vidal is one of the most injured parties. She's more popular than the president and could have performed better in a gubernatorial election separated from the general election. While Macri was in a state of shock on election night, Vidal was able to say she would be self-critical (in sharp contrast with the deranged Lilita Carrió). Do you think there exists the possibility of a rift between Vidal and Macri? Also, in case of defeat in October, is Vidal a good contender to replace Macri?

Yeah Vidal and her team are mad, Larreta (mayor of BA City, the place where PRO was born) and her were or are the natural replacements for Macri. I'm sure she'll try to be the new leader of the opposition since she won't have any public position until the mid-term elections in two years.
However, I think there was too many optimism regarding her figure. Media and some consultants almost categorized her as some sort of Margaret Tatcher from the third world and she lost by a widest margin than Macri in her province, i don't know if she would have won even if the elections were separated. Having a positive image doesn't necessarily mean you are competitive in electoral terms.

Respecting peronism and the new government, it's true that the Kirchernist era was much more left-wing "populist" (i don't use this term very often as i don't agree as how is usually used) than before. But there was also a context in Latin America and another economic situation. Peronism is pretty "chamaleonic". After all, they almost sold the entire state in the 90's... I think (maybe i'm wrong) that Fernandez will lead a much more moderate government, let's say a more "social democratic" approach. He hasn't introduced members of a possible cabinet yet but there's rumours and speculation in media. With respect of the economic positions, they say the orthodox part will lead Finance (the budget and negotiations with the IFM) and the more heterodox will run what is called now the Ministry of Production (this are the areas regarding Industry, Commerce, etc)

[samm5]

This was a forgone conclusion for a while. Macri was a disaster. Now, how is the relationship between the "Double Fernandéz"? Is Cristina ok with being second in everything or could there be future tensions between her and Alberto Fernandéz?

It was, but the difference was less than expected. After the primaries, with the financial-economic inestability there was speculation in media/pollsters that Macri could even fall as people would blame him for the financial trouble and Fernandez could grow from 48% to 50-52%, however it didn't really happen.

Although he lost, it's almost half the difference in comparison with the primaries (from 16% to 7-8%). Also he won more provinces than before. Cordoba, BA City as in the primaries, but also Mendoza, Entre Rios,San Luis and it seems Santa Fe. I'm making these comment with 88% of the votes counted, some percentages could change a bit.

Macri grew 6-7 pp, in my opinion, the main reason for this is: antikirchnerism + some strategic voting from voters of the third parties + majority of the people who didn't vote in the primaries voted for Macri (this also happen in 2015)

About the double fernandez situation: we don't know yet. The next political topics probably will be the transition, the Fernandez cabinet and the financial-economic crisis

[samm5]

I forgot:
The constitution says that you win with 45%, you don't need 50% as in Uruguay or Brazil for example. So the election is over.

Rodriguez Larreta (incumbent, now the only PRO governor) won the race in the City of Buenos Aires with 55%, more than 20 points ahead of Lammens (35%).

[samm5]

Any idea where I can get detailed results? If I had to guess, Macri did better tha expected in rural areas due to his pro life stance, as well doing very well in Buenos Aires

I can't post links, but La Nación or any major newspaper has good maps!

[samm5]

Is that because of 'ordinary' class-divided politics (poorer working class suburbs against relatively more affluent countryside) or is it for more, er, typically South American reasons?

I would argue that peronism tends to do well in places which have lower income levels, less education credentials, less-developed regions, etc. The typical places where the left wins in other nations. The opposite had happened with the UCR historically, and now with Cambiemos. This doesn't necessarily mean that peronists are all leftist (they don't came from a socialist tradition as social democratic parties in europe) and non-peronists are all right-wingers, but in general terms, i would say they are, at least in economic policy.