Most likely tipping point state in 2020

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Mid-2018 check-in

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Florida

[President Johnson]

I have a feeling it'll be Pennsylvania. Of course, it could be Florida, but it's more of a must-win for Trump rather than the Democrats since they have more viable paths to 270 electoral votes. If Pennsylvania goes Democrat, the other Rust Belt states Trump barely won in 2016 will most likely go as well. In addition, Florida and Arizona could bolster the Democratic lead.

I'm unsure about Iowa and Ohio and how they will turn out in 2020 since they heavily swung to Trump in 2016. If the trade war continues to have an impact, the Democratic candidate should win both in a medium-size national victory (around Obama 2012 numbers or a +4% popular vote advantage).

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Florida

FL has the most EVs, but it would need to jump over WI, MI, or PA, which seems unlikely. AZ might jump ahead of FL, even.

I see the following:

WI -> MI -> PA -> AZ -> FL

[here2view]

I think out of those options, from left to right in terms of Democratic margins it'll be:

MI -> WI -> PA -> AZ -> FL -> NC

Democrats win the first three, AZ is a tossup, FL Tilt R and NC Lean R. But PA puts the Democrats over the top. They're building off the 2016 map since I don't see Trump winning any Clinton states. PA gets them from 258 to 278.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pa and if its a wave, FL

[Hammy]

I feel stupid asking as long as I've been here and as much of a statistical nut as I am, but I don't recall what the tipping point refers to.

[Da2017]

I feel stupid asking as long as I've been here and as much of a statistical nut as I am, but I don't recall what the tipping point refers to.

The state that decides the election. For example in 2000 Florida was the tipping point State. Florida would of put Al Gore or George W Bush over 270.  The tipping point change almost every election. The way to find the tipping point you go from the bluest to the reddest State.

[here2view]

I feel stupid asking as long as I've been here and as much of a statistical nut as I am, but I don't recall what the tipping point refers to.

It's the state that puts a candidate over 270 based upon margins of victory. So for example, in 2016 Trump finished with 306 electoral votes (ignore the faithless electors.) We can organize the states by margin of victory from biggest Clinton win to biggest Trump win. The closest Trump win was Michigan, if you take that away he's at 290. Next is Pennsylvania, which he won by .72%. Taking that away leaves him at exactly 270. Wisconsin, which he won by .76%, would be the "tipping point state" because it'd bring him from 260 to 270, aka a victory.

So it basically organizes the winner's states based upon margin of victory, and then eliminates the smallest ones until we get to a state that, when subtracted, crosses that 270 threshold.

[Mr. Smith]

It was Colorado in 2012 and 2008, which is partially the reason the whole "Hillary's a bad fit for Colorado" got off ground in the first place.  And if someone besides Trump had run against Hillary, it probably would've been again, and favored her.

If I were to guess on current trends, I'd say Florida or Arizona, what with the swingy nature of The Midwest which could well be decided against or for Trump [in the case of the latter, that'd be rather useless and it'd be hilarious to see the pundit meltdowns] after Florida and even Arizona have been called...or the region could've swung far enough against him that the battle moves to The Sun Belt, which makes Nevada, Colorado, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida the contested states just as originally hoped last time.

To be safe, I'll go with Florida.

[pbrower2a]

It was Iowa in 2008, Ohio in 2004, and Florida in 2000.... and Wisconsin in 2016. Michigan suggests that it will be about as Democratic as Massachusetts in 2020, so it drops out of consideration.

Arizona shows signs of becoming more D than Wisconsin, so at this point I choose Arizona.

In an electoral blowout, we could have Minnesota as the tipping point. At some point, other states swing even more D than does Minnesota, and Minnesota gets to be the national average.
 

[South Dakota Democrat]

It was Iowa in 2008, Ohio in 2004, and Florida in 2000.... and Wisconsin in 2016. Michigan suggests that it will be about as Democratic as Massachusetts in 2020, so it drops out of consideration.

Arizona shows signs of becoming more D than Wisconsin, so at this point I choose Arizona.

In an electoral blowout, we could have Minnesota as the tipping point. At some point, other states swing even more D than does Minnesota, and Minnesota gets to be the national average.
 

It was Colorado in 2008, not Iowa.

[SN2903]

PA or WI.
I think both states are to the right of Michigan. I think Trump will have a hard time winning Michigan again in 2020 as it usually votes democrat but I think the dems will have a very hard time winning Wisconsin or PA in 2020. The states are moving more and more to the right in the past 15-20 years. Michigan I think was more the turnout was low in Wayne and I don't think that will happen again.

[I’m not Stu]

Pennsylvania

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pennsylvania and FL

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

No surprises here.