Is GA-06 an underrated pickup opportunity?

[Bidenworth2020]

1. It could be a sleeper race

2. Why would any Ossoff voters flip?

3.Abrams may win it

[Zaybay]

I dont think so. Karren Handel is a rather strong incumbent, and the district is still suburban, so its hard to flip. We should just wait till 2020, when it will probably vote for us.

[Tintrlvr]

It could happen if no one is paying attention, which seems to be the case. Turnout was so high in the special election (as compared to other special elections) that I don't think there was much "enthusiasm gap" advantage for the Democrats, which could be more in play in November. It is also the type of seat where the Democrats' voters are much lower voting propensity than the Republicans'; true everywhere, but especially true in a relatively diverse and wealthy suburban seat with very few low-income Republicans. Ossoff was a decent candidate but hardly a star, and Handel has an established history of blowing elections even if she managed to pull through in the special here in large part due to substantial outside spending and national focus (on both sides).

I would give the Democrats maybe a 20-25% chance of winning the seat. Lean R overall.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What others have said.  Handel hasn't been particularly controversial as an incumbent, neither Democratic candidate is great, and I think Clinton's & Ossoff's performances may represent a D ceiling for this district for now (although it continues to change demographically).  I actually think GA-07 may be a better pickup opportunity for the D's, although it's still Lean R.

[Del Tachi]

GA-07 would flip first

[mvd10]

The race will be inevitable less nationalized in 2018 and whoever runs for the Democrats probably wouldn't have such a fundraising advantage either. Maybe in 2020 but that also depends on the Democratic nominee in the GE. Biden or someone like him probably would win it handily and coattails could potentially help the Democratic nominee for the district. But how many suburban Republicans who're turned off by Trump because he's too chaotic but somehow still refused to vote for Hillary Clinton for muh reasons would actually vote for someone like Gillibrand (new incarnation), Sanders or Warren?

[Bidenworth2020]

The race will be inevitable less nationalized in 2018 and whoever runs for the Democrats probably wouldn't have such a fundraising advantage either. Maybe in 2020 but that also depends on the Democratic nominee in the GE. Biden or someone like him probably would win it handily and coattails could potentially help the Democratic nominee for the district. But how many suburban Republicans who're turned off by Trump because he's too chaotic but somehow still refused to vote for Hillary Clinton for muh reasons would actually vote for someone like Gillibrand (new incarnation), Sanders or Warren?

i wouldnt say gillibrand is like warren or bernie

[mvd10]

The race will be inevitable less nationalized in 2018 and whoever runs for the Democrats probably wouldn't have such a fundraising advantage either. Maybe in 2020 but that also depends on the Democratic nominee in the GE. Biden or someone like him probably would win it handily and coattails could potentially help the Democratic nominee for the district. But how many suburban Republicans who're turned off by Trump because he's too chaotic but somehow still refused to vote for Hillary Clinton for muh reasons would actually vote for someone like Gillibrand (new incarnation), Sanders or Warren?

i wouldnt say gillibrand is like warren or bernie

She's not there quite yet but she's shifting hard to the left. Is there any other major politician who is shifting as hard to the left as Gillibrand? Booker and co are trying to throw some red meat to the base but Gillibrand is taking it quite far.

[Adam Griffin]

Even though I think Cagle is the better candidate for Abrams to face in the fall statewide, this might be the one district where Kemp being the nominee could depress suburban turnout just enough to provide the possibility for victory.

Perhaps the biggest issue is the strength of the eventual Democratic nominee in this race. I don't see star material in either one of them...and that probably makes the former dynamic irrelevant.


In many respects, CD-7 has better fundamentals than CD-6 - but the lack of organization brought by an immensely expensive special election (and the composition of the necessary electorate; far more low-propensity voters in a midterm race) probably puts it too far out of reach right now, too.

[Horus]

Abel has a better shot at it than McBath, but both candidates are underwhelming. Handel has had an inoffensive first term and there could very well be a non negligible number of Handel-Abrams soccer moms in places like Dunwoody and Roswell come November, especially if Kemp wins the runoff.

As for the 7th, I've heard rumors that Kim is mobilizing the important, growing Asian vote in Gwinnett big time, though I still doubt it'll be enough in a midterm.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Abel has a better shot at it than McBath, but both candidates are underwhelming. Handel has had an inoffensive first term and there could very well be a non negligible number of Handel-Abrams soccer moms in places like Dunwoody and Roswell come November, especially if Kemp wins the runoff.

As for the 7th, I've heard rumors that Kim is mobilizing the important, growing Asian vote in Gwinnett big time, though I still doubt it'll be enough in a midterm.

McBath strikes me as a stronger candidate than Abel

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Abel has a better shot at it than McBath, but both candidates are underwhelming. Handel has had an inoffensive first term and there could very well be a non negligible number of Handel-Abrams soccer moms in places like Dunwoody and Roswell come November, especially if Kemp wins the runoff.

As for the 7th, I've heard rumors that Kim is mobilizing the important, growing Asian vote in Gwinnett big time, though I still doubt it'll be enough in a midterm.

McBath strikes me as a stronger candidate than Abel