2018 Atlas CFB Pick Em Contest

[Alabama_Indy10]

Auburn also goes down!! Love it

That puts a major blow in the SEC's chances of getting two teams into the playoff...though I suppose either Georgia (if they beat Alabama or an unbeaten LSU in the SEC Championship Game) or LSU could get there...

Bama needs to straighten up in this game first. Not off to a good start.

[NewYorkExpress]

Auburn also goes down!! Love it

That puts a major blow in the SEC's chances of getting two teams into the playoff...though I suppose either Georgia (if they beat Alabama or an unbeaten LSU in the SEC Championship Game) or LSU could get there...

Bama needs to straighten up in this game first. Not off to a good start.

Even if Alabama loses, I don't see them falling past the four spot unless they lose a second game (which is possible, after all they still have to face LSU, Mississippi State and Auburn...and the LSU game is on the road. They could easily end up either unbeaten or with four losses)

[Dereich]

Wisconsin goes down! Lol

If Ohio State loses to TCU this week as well, the Big Ten is locked out of the Playoff, and we're only in Week Three!

A 1 loss Big 10 champ makes the playoff 100%.

I don't think the Big Ten champ will have one loss...if Ohio State and Wisconsin both lose this week.

Why exactly? I don't understand this take at all. By any measure you use, the Big 10 is one of the better Power 5 conferences, probably the second best. Ohio State and Wisconsin are by no means the only talented teams in the Big 10. Wisconsin isn't even in the conference top 3 for quality of players if you go by recruiting. If those teams lose, it might just mean we need to reevaluate who really is on top of the conference; Penn State, Michigan, or even Iowa could catch fire down the stretch and end up 1 loss or undefeated champions 100% playoff locks.

And even if those two teams ARE the best of this year's Big 10, a loss in the early season isn't a great indicator of failure down the stretch. Look at 2014 Ohio State dropping an early loss to a markedly inferior VA Tech, 2015 Alabama's early season loss to Ole Miss, or 2016 Clemson's loss to Pitt. If Wisconsin or Ohio State rallied to beat Michigan, Penn State, and the other division champion, they'd be guaranteed in the playoff.

[NewYorkExpress]

Wisconsin goes down! Lol

If Ohio State loses to TCU this week as well, the Big Ten is locked out of the Playoff, and we're only in Week Three!

A 1 loss Big 10 champ makes the playoff 100%.

I don't think the Big Ten champ will have one loss...if Ohio State and Wisconsin both lose this week.

Why exactly? I don't understand this take at all. By any measure you use, the Big 10 is one of the better Power 5 conferences, probably the second best. Ohio State and Wisconsin are by no means the only talented teams in the Big 10. Wisconsin isn't even in the conference top 3 for quality of players if you go by recruiting. If those teams lose, it might just mean we need to reevaluate who really is on top of the conference; Penn State, Michigan, or even Iowa could catch fire down the stretch and end up 1 loss or undefeated champions 100% playoff locks.

And even if those two teams ARE the best of this year's Big 10, a loss in the early season isn't a great indicator of failure down the stretch. Look at 2014 Ohio State dropping an early loss to a markedly inferior VA Tech, 2015 Alabama's early season loss to Ole Miss, or 2016 Clemson's loss to Pitt. If Wisconsin or Ohio State rallied to beat Michigan, Penn State, and the other division champion, they'd be guaranteed in the playoff.

You missed my next response, where I said that I thought the Big Ten champion (who I think will be Ohio State) will have more than one loss. Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State are just going to beat up on each other, and Wisconsin plays so soft a schedule that they have to win the conference to make the playoff.

[DINGO Joe]

Ole Miss throws a 75 yd TD on the first play against Bama.  They shouldn't have done that, they'll just make Bama mad.

And it's 49-7 Bama at the half.  Bad strategy on Ole Miss part.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Alabama needs one point in the second half to become the first SEC team to ever score 50 or more points in its first three games of a season.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Emotional Rollercoaster, if I die from the 2nd half I donate my points to Santander

[Alabama_Indy10]

Let’s go TCU!!

[NewYorkExpress]

I'm rooting for TCU too.

Also, there's an upset going on in Louisville as Western Kentucky leads Louisville 14-6 in the third quarter.

The Cardinal were 22.5 point favorites coming into the game.

Also, everyone in this game, picked Louisville.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Well, that was painful.

I hope we somehow climb back and have an Ohio State rematch in the playoff but not getting my hopes up

[NewYorkExpress]

Well, that was painful.

I hope we somehow climb back and have an Ohio State rematch in the playoff but not getting my hopes up

TCU would have to win the Big Twelve, and crush Oklahoma twice in doing so.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Well, that was painful.

I hope we somehow climb back and have an Ohio State rematch in the playoff but not getting my hopes up

TCU would have to win the Big Twelve, and crush Oklahoma twice in doing so.

I don't think we'd have to crush them really

[NewYorkExpress]

Well, that was painful.

I hope we somehow climb back and have an Ohio State rematch in the playoff but not getting my hopes up

TCU would have to win the Big Twelve, and crush Oklahoma twice in doing so.

I don't think we'd have to crush them really

It's moot. You aren't beating Oklahoma twice.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Well, that was painful.

I hope we somehow climb back and have an Ohio State rematch in the playoff but not getting my hopes up

TCU would have to win the Big Twelve, and crush Oklahoma twice in doing so.

I don't think we'd have to crush them really

It's moot. You aren't beating Oklahoma twice.

We will see

[Alabama_Indy10]

Roll Tide

[100% pro-life no matter what]

We were the better team, just made a few stupid mistakes and got a little bad luck.  Anchor Down!!

[GeorgiaModerate]

We were the better team, just made a few stupid mistakes and got a little bad luck.  Anchor Down!!

Yep, Vanderbilt should have won that game.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Dereich - what would you make of 3 potentially 1-loss teams in the SEC West? Alabama/State/LSU namely. P sure LSU is in title game, and it would mean they have to beat UGA twice. No way Bama doesn't get in with a single loss to LSU, right? State gets screwed? The chaos scenario we need.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Dereich - what would you make of 3 potentially 1-loss teams in the SEC West? Alabama/State/LSU namely. P sure LSU is in title game, and it would mean they have to beat UGA twice. No way Bama doesn't get in with a single loss to LSU, right? State gets screwed? The chaos scenario we need.

I can't see Alabama losing.....an Alabama team that can pass? Hard to stop.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Dereich - what would you make of 3 potentially 1-loss teams in the SEC West? Alabama/State/LSU namely. P sure LSU is in title game, and it would mean they have to beat UGA twice. No way Bama doesn't get in with a single loss to LSU, right? State gets screwed? The chaos scenario we need.

I can't see Alabama losing.....an Alabama team that can pass? Hard to stop.

Last year's Alabama was arguably better with a top tier defense, and they were stopped one and a half times and should have lost the Mississippi State game. The only three regular season games that you can evaluate them on will be played in November.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Standings after week 3, Sjoyce wins Week 3 on tiebreakers with a close tie with Tmth, Santander has a 3 point lead overall.

[NewYorkExpress]

I had a brutal week. That'll teach me to mostly pick the favorite...

[Alabama_Indy10]

I’ve had the same score all 3 weeks lol

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I definitely made picks.  Thought they had saved, but I guess not.  Oh well!

[Dereich]

Dereich - what would you make of 3 potentially 1-loss teams in the SEC West? Alabama/State/LSU namely. P sure LSU is in title game, and it would mean they have to beat UGA twice. No way Bama doesn't get in with a single loss to LSU, right? State gets screwed? The chaos scenario we need.

I still think you need to look at who the other conferences would be sending. There are plausible scenarios here which basically doom the committee. Let's assume this:

1. SEC Champ
2. 1 or 0 loss Clemson
3. 1 loss B1G Champ
4. ?

#1 is a safe assumption; SEC Champ is almost certainly in, especially as the top-heaviness of the conference makes it unlikely we see a 2 loss SEC champ any time soon and in your scenario LSU is an easy pick. #2 is also pretty safe. Clemson's top competitor in the Atlantic is...uh...Boston College? I guess? And they'll roll the Coastal winner as well. The B1G champ, NYE's hot takes notwithstanding, also looks guaranteed. I have a rough time seeing Ohio State drop two games this year and if lose one I'd assume whoever beats them also doesn't drop two. So that just leaves one spot.

What does the committee do if they have to choose between this?

1 loss Stanford, Pac12 Champ (loss to Oregon or Wazzu)
1 loss Notre Dame (loss to Stanford)
1 loss Bama
1 loss MSU
1 loss Oklahoma, Big12 Champ (loss to...I don't know, TCU and then win the rematch)

Would they really leave out not one but TWO conference champs for Bama? Keep in mind this Stanford would have possibly multiple top 10 wins (ND and maaaybe Washington assuming they look good) and Oklahoma would argue that they redeemed their loss which Bama and MSU did not. And Oklahoma, Note Dame, and Stanford would  all argue that they rank better on strength of schedule than Alabama (#12, #20 and #24 vs #28, at least by ESPN's crappy index) which is something the committee has said they consider very important. If they DID go with Bama after all that, I'd have to assume that would be the death knell of the current 4 playoff system/committee.

In other news, FSU opened as 12 point favorites against Northern Illinois. Take NIU now before betters catch on.

In other other news, I just realized that in all three of the games I watched full through yesterday (FSU/Syracuse, Auburn/LSU, TCU/tOSU) the team I was rooting for lost. This season sucks.