2018 Atlas CFB Pick Em Contest

[NewYorkExpress]

Dereich - what would you make of 3 potentially 1-loss teams in the SEC West? Alabama/State/LSU namely. P sure LSU is in title game, and it would mean they have to beat UGA twice. No way Bama doesn't get in with a single loss to LSU, right? State gets screwed? The chaos scenario we need.

I still think you need to look at who the other conferences would be sending. There are plausible scenarios here which basically doom the committee. Let's assume this:

1. SEC Champ
2. 1 or 0 loss Clemson
3. 1 loss B1G Champ
4. ?

#1 is a safe assumption; SEC Champ is almost certainly in, especially as the top-heaviness of the conference makes it unlikely we see a 2 loss SEC champ any time soon and in your scenario LSU is an easy pick. #2 is also pretty safe. Clemson's top competitor in the Atlantic is...uh...Boston College? I guess? And they'll roll the Coastal winner as well. The B1G champ, NYE's hot takes notwithstanding, also looks guaranteed. I have a rough time seeing Ohio State drop two games this year and if lose one I'd assume whoever beats them also doesn't drop two. So that just leaves one spot.

What does the committee do if they have to choose between this?

1 loss Stanford, Pac12 Champ (loss to Oregon or Wazzu)
1 loss Notre Dame (loss to Stanford)
1 loss Bama
1 loss MSU
1 loss Oklahoma, Big12 Champ (loss to...I don't know, TCU and then win the rematch)

Would they really leave out not one but TWO conference champs for Bama? Keep in mind this Stanford would have possibly multiple top 10 wins (ND and maaaybe Washington assuming they look good) and Oklahoma would argue that they redeemed their loss which Bama and MSU did not. And Oklahoma, Note Dame, and Stanford would  all argue that they rank better on strength of schedule than Alabama (#12, #20 and #24 vs #28, at least by ESPN's crappy index) which is something the committee has said they consider very important. If they DID go with Bama after all that, I'd have to assume that would be the death knell of the current 4 playoff system/committee.

In other news, FSU opened as 12 point favorites against Northern Illinois. Take NIU now before betters catch on.

In other other news, I just realized that in all three of the games I watched full through yesterday (FSU/Syracuse, Auburn/LSU, TCU/tOSU) the team I was rooting for lost. This season sucks.

I wouldn't be stunned if Notre Dame beat Stanford.

So my scenario would be:

the seeds

1. 1 or 0 loss SEC Champion: Alabama/Georgia/LSU
2. 1 or 0 loss ACC Champion- Clemson
3. 1 or 0 loss Big Ten/Pac Twelve Champion- Ohio State/Stanford


For the fourth spot, I would consider the following:

Whichever of Ohio State and Stanford did not get picked, an unbeaten UCF, an unbeaten Notre Dame, a 1 loss LSU/Georgia (their only loss being to Alabama), a one loss Penn State (their only loss being to  Ohio State) an unbeaten Big Twelve Champion Oklahoma (I think they're odd conference out in almost any scenario that doesn't involve the PAC-12, Big Ten champion getting a second loss), a one loss TCU (they're only loss being to Oklahoma) and a one loss Michigan (they're one loss being to the Big Ten Champion).

[Terry the Fat Shark]

I definitely made picks.  Thought they had saved, but I guess not.  Oh well!

Weird....

[Terry the Fat Shark]

If you are behind I encourage you to keep playing, you can still get bragging rights for winning specific weeks

[Terry the Fat Shark]

This has to be one of the hardest weeks I've had in terms of pickems....

Hard to decide between many not so good teams, lots of non top 25 matchups that could go either way.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This has to be one of the hardest weeks I've had in terms of pickems....

Hard to decide between many not so good teams, lots of non top 25 matchups that could go either way.

Agreed, lots of tricky matchups this week. 

[NewYorkExpress]

I've got a good feeling about Texas A&M against Alabama...either that or I've completely lost my marbles, one or the other.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I've got a good feeling about Texas A&M against Alabama...either that or I've completely lost my marbles, one or the other.

You can buy some more marbles fairly cheaply.

[Donerail]

I've got a good feeling about Texas A&M against Alabama...either that or I've completely lost my marbles, one or the other.

To cover, sure, that sounds reasonable... winning is something else though

[Dereich]

Speaking of Alabama, very early betting lines for the national championship have been opened:

Alabama -9.5 vs. Ohio State
Alabama -10.5 vs. Georgia
Alabama -11.5 vs. Clemson
Alabama -14.5 vs. Oklahoma

So yeah. Good luck A&M, because Bama is already a double digit favorite in the Natty and they haven't even made the playoffs yet. If you're curious, if you place a bet for one of these lines and those teams don't make the championship game you get a refund.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Speaking of Alabama, very early betting lines for the national championship have been opened:

Alabama -9.5 vs. Ohio State
Alabama -10.5 vs. Georgia
Alabama -11.5 vs. Clemson
Alabama -14.5 vs. Oklahoma

So yeah. Good luck A&M, because Bama is already a double digit favorite in the Natty and they haven't even made the playoffs yet. If you're curious, if you place a bet for one of these lines and those teams don't make the championship game you get a refund.

Alabama with a passing game, can they be stopped?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I hope nobody picked Nebraska.

[NewYorkExpress]

Ouch. I'm wrong about A&M AGAIN...and it looks like Alabama will beat the spread.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Darn, I almost picked Purdue over BC...would have been 11/11 so far today if I had.

[Alabama_Indy10]

I've got a good feeling about Texas A&M against Alabama...either that or I've completely lost my marbles, one or the other.

I think you’ve completely lost your marbles.

[NewYorkExpress]

I've got a good feeling about Texas A&M against Alabama...either that or I've completely lost my marbles, one or the other.

I think you’ve completely lost your marbles.

Sure looks that way to me now. I've been burned by Texas A&M against both Clemson and Alabama now...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Believe it or not, Army and Oklahoma are going to OT.

[NewYorkExpress]

Believe it or not, Army and Oklahoma are going to OT.

If Oklahoma loses this, the Big Twelve are going crash out of the playoff. Oklahoma would have a really embarrassing loss, which two wins over TCU might not be able to cure (and it's no lock they beat the Horned Frogs twice, or that they beat Oklahoma State).

[NewYorkExpress]

Mississippi State and Oklahoma State down against Kentucky and Texas Tech, respectively....plus Oregon is flattening Stanford right now.

Also, Oklahoma just scored.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Mississippi State and Oklahoma State down against Kentucky and Texas Tech, respectively....plus Oregon is flattening Stanford right now.

Also, Oklahoma just scored.

I started out real hot today (16/18) but am falling apart in the late games.

[YE]

My god we were totally clueless on how to defend the option. Gave up 331 rushing yards and 4/5 on 4th down conversions to Army... I hope we never play Georgia Tech lol.

[NewYorkExpress]

My god we were totally clueless on how to defend the option. Gave up 331 rushing yards and 4/5 on 4th down conversions to Army... I hope we never play Georgia Tech lol.

Relax, Georgia Tech isn't making the playoff.

[NewYorkExpress]

A bunch of ranked teams have lost today (Boston College, Mississippi State, Texas A&M and Virginia Tech, who most got humiliated against Old Dominion, Oklahoma State, and a certainty that one of Oregon or Stanford will be added to that list...oh and Wisconsin's trailing against Iowa).

Next week doesn't get better for ranked teams, with Tennessee/Georgia (a plausible upset, if somewhat of a stretch), BYU/Washington (possibly the end of the road for BYU's playoff dreams), Oregon/Cal, Syracuse/Clemson (Syracuse beat Clemson last year in the Carrier Dome and I believe Dino Babers's program can do it again at Clemson), West Virginia/Texas Tech, Baylor/Oklahoma, Pittsburgh/UCF (UCF's toughest nonconference game), Virginia Tech/Duke (While Virginia Tech won't be ranked in the AP poll, I wouldn't be surprised if Duke was), Ohio State/Penn State (A key match in deciding if the Big Ten gets anyone in the playoff), Stanford/Notre Dame and LSU/Ole Miss.

[YE]

My god we were totally clueless on how to defend the option. Gave up 331 rushing yards and 4/5 on 4th down conversions to Army... I hope we never play Georgia Tech lol.

Relax, Georgia Tech isn't making the playoff.

And neither are we. Bill Snyder and Gary Patterson are both great coaches who I'm sure will watch tape of this game and both will figure out they need to just run the option and kill us for another few hundred yards. Plus most of the Big 12 teams can throw the ball as well unlike Army.

As of right now I think WVU wins the Big 12. 

[Santander]

Old Dominion beating Virginia Tech with a backup QB is the definition of a fluke, but still, wow. Those kids are never going to forget that game.

[NewYorkExpress]

My god we were totally clueless on how to defend the option. Gave up 331 rushing yards and 4/5 on 4th down conversions to Army... I hope we never play Georgia Tech lol.

Relax, Georgia Tech isn't making the playoff.

And neither are we. Bill Snyder and Gary Patterson are both great coaches who I'm sure will watch tape of this game and both will figure out they need to just run the option and kill us for another few hundred yards. Plus most of the Big 12 teams can throw the ball as well unlike Army.

As of right now I think WVU wins the Big 12. 

Loss to Maryland aside, you could argue Texas is the best team in the Big Twelve right now...