Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 11, 2019, 02:23:31 pm
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  GA-SurveyUSA/11AliveTV: Stacey Abrams only down 2 against both Republicans
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: GA-SurveyUSA/11AliveTV: Stacey Abrams only down 2 against both Republicans  (Read 1685 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,622
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 20, 2018, 10:21:44 am »

46% Cagle (R)
44% Abrams (D)

45% Kemp (R)
43% Abrams (D)

I'm from the EU, so I can't access the whole article (data protection guideline keep us out from several US sites). That's what I found on Google.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
Speaker OneJ
OneJ_
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,109
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 20, 2018, 10:29:59 am »

BTW, Cagle is trailing Kemp 40-34 in the runoff.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,622
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 20, 2018, 10:33:43 am »

SurveyUSA had Cagle up 5 against Abrams in May. Kemp wasn't tested.
Logged
Senator Barbara Bollier
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,150
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 20, 2018, 10:35:10 am »

Plausible.
Logged
LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,454


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 20, 2018, 10:38:32 am »

Not a great place to be, theoretically this should be one of the best polling periods for Abrams considering the division in the GOP primary.
Logged
The Saint
TheSaint250
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,857


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 20, 2018, 10:39:11 am »

There are a few elections where things are going absolutely perfect for Democrats. This is one.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,622
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 20, 2018, 12:57:35 pm »

Full results and crosstabs:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=f6212db4-ce30-4fb3-8dbc-ec1399a602b4
Logged
Gass3268
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,266
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 20, 2018, 12:58:11 pm »

The gender gap here is nuts.
Logged
Skill and Chance
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,609
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 20, 2018, 01:00:27 pm »

If this goes to a runoff, Abrams will likely win given recent special election turnout patterns.  Are there credible Indies running?
Logged
Georgia Is A Swing State
RFKFan68
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 20, 2018, 01:03:39 pm »
« Edited: July 20, 2018, 01:10:27 pm by RFKFan68 »

Awesome! This survey sample is whiter than the electorate will actually be. I wouldn’t be surprised if Abrams was leading Kemp by 2 in reality. Of course we’ll get a clearer picture after Kemp wins the nomination.

ETA: Shocked at Stacey gaining 10 points with Latinos with Kemp as the Republican option. Yeah, I hope Kemp wins the run off. He has clung very tight to Donald Trump on anti-Hispanic rhetoric veiled as being tough on immigration.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,622
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 20, 2018, 01:07:01 pm »

I think Abrams has all the chances to win this year, based on this poll.

Democratic enthusiasm will be high and Independents will also shift strongly to her side.
Logged
jrk26
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 474


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: July 20, 2018, 02:03:07 pm »

Not a great place to be, theoretically this should be one of the best polling periods for Abrams considering the division in the GOP primary.

Do you ever do anything except concern troll?
Logged
brand_allen
Jr. Member
**
Posts: 55


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: July 20, 2018, 03:43:49 pm »

Awesome! This survey sample is whiter than the electorate will actually be.

True. 2014 GA Sen exits pinned the white/black breakdown of the electorate at 64/29 (without an African American leading a major party ticket). SurveyUSA finds the breakdown at 68/24% (*with* an African American leading a major party ticket).

That being said, we all know exit polls are not infallible and that SurveyUSA, while a very reputable pollster, is known for having some screwy crosstabs at times.
Logged
Bagel23
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,703
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: July 20, 2018, 04:57:13 pm »

Evans would be leading
Logged
Landslide Andy
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31,731
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: July 20, 2018, 04:58:43 pm »

I'm of two minds about this. On one hand, it's pretty good for Abrams that she's only trailing by 2 in an electorate that is certainly less black than the one on election day will be. On the other hand, this should theoretically be one of the times she's polling best due to the GOP infighting over the past couple months.

Overall, this still looks like a respectable loss for Abrams to me.
Logged
You're Still Going to Vote for Biden
politicalmasta73
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,924
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: July 20, 2018, 05:10:30 pm »

so first of all...

1. no she wouldn't, she managed to get destroyed in a primary only slightly uphill battle

2. even if true, abrams is our (better, imo) nominee. time to unite and stop the crap
Logged
Georgia Is A Swing State
RFKFan68
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: July 20, 2018, 05:10:53 pm »

Lmao. No.
Logged
NoobMaster69
dotard
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,383


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: July 20, 2018, 06:11:55 pm »


Maybe if she was running for AG (which is what she should have done tbh)
Logged
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,815
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: July 20, 2018, 06:18:22 pm »

The fact that this race is sitting at Safe GOP is embarrassing. I guess they are waiting until after the primary, but still.
Logged
President Griffin
Adam Griffin
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,492
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: July 20, 2018, 06:31:35 pm »


Not uncommon in GA, considering that the black electorate is basically 60% female. Female voters are disproportionately black and male votes disproportionately white.
Logged
President Griffin
Adam Griffin
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,492
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: July 20, 2018, 06:40:07 pm »

I'm of two minds about this. On one hand, it's pretty good for Abrams that she's only trailing by 2 in an electorate that is certainly less black than the one on election day will be. On the other hand, this should theoretically be one of the times she's polling best due to the GOP infighting over the past couple months.

Overall, this still looks like a respectable loss for Abrams to me.

This is where I'm at as well. Though it should be almost verboten, looking at those racial crosstabs and adjusting them to 2014's baseline, this is what the poll would show:

Abrams   45.4 ( +2.8 )
Cagle       42.6

Abrams   47.6 ( +4.5 )
Kemp       43.1

(Though FWIW, Carter was leading in polls around this time 4 years ago)
Logged
President Johnson
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,303
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: July 21, 2018, 03:35:07 am »

Freedom poll.

It'll definitely be a close race, but hope Abrams can win this by avoiding a run-off. Not sure that she'll be able to win one, given lower turnout. I know that Democrats overperformed in most recent special elections, but I think her chances are better in the first round to win this one.
Logged
Chief Justice Keef
etr906
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,062
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: July 21, 2018, 09:17:32 am »

Of course, Bagel's logic is that only racist white Democrats can win in the South
Logged
MAGA Coal Miners for Beshear
libertpaulian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,126
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: July 21, 2018, 09:46:17 am »

The fact that Kemp is only leading Abrams by 5% among those 65+ says it all.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but...Abrams just might pull this thing off.
Logged
Georgia Is A Swing State
RFKFan68
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: July 21, 2018, 10:42:25 am »

The fact that Kemp is only leading Abrams by 5% among those 65+ says it all.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but...Abrams just might pull this thing off.

Even though they are not a huge part of the electorate Iím still in awe of that number with Hispanics. I went back and according to 2014 exit polls Carter beat Deal among Hispanics by 6 points (53-47) now Abrams is leading him among that group by 50!!! (Hillary won them 67-27). That huge shift to the Dems, a couple point bump with whites, and huge turnout and a swing to the left (89 to 93ish) with black voters can get her the Governorís mansion.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC