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Author Topic: GA-SurveyUSA/11AliveTV: Stacey Abrams only down 2 against both Republicans  (Read 1478 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: July 20, 2018, 10:21:44 am »

46% Cagle (R)
44% Abrams (D)

45% Kemp (R)
43% Abrams (D)

I'm from the EU, so I can't access the whole article (data protection guideline keep us out from several US sites). That's what I found on Google.

Quote
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OneJ
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« Reply #1 on: July 20, 2018, 10:29:59 am »

BTW, Cagle is trailing Kemp 40-34 in the runoff.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: July 20, 2018, 10:33:43 am »

SurveyUSA had Cagle up 5 against Abrams in May. Kemp wasn't tested.
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« Reply #3 on: July 20, 2018, 10:35:10 am »

Plausible.
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« Reply #4 on: July 20, 2018, 10:38:32 am »

Not a great place to be, theoretically this should be one of the best polling periods for Abrams considering the division in the GOP primary.
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« Reply #5 on: July 20, 2018, 10:39:11 am »

There are a few elections where things are going absolutely perfect for Democrats. This is one.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6 on: July 20, 2018, 12:57:35 pm »

Full results and crosstabs:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=f6212db4-ce30-4fb3-8dbc-ec1399a602b4
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Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: July 20, 2018, 12:58:11 pm »

The gender gap here is nuts.
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« Reply #8 on: July 20, 2018, 01:00:27 pm »

If this goes to a runoff, Abrams will likely win given recent special election turnout patterns.  Are there credible Indies running?
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« Reply #9 on: July 20, 2018, 01:03:39 pm »

Awesome! This survey sample is whiter than the electorate will actually be. I wouldn’t be surprised if Abrams was leading Kemp by 2 in reality. Of course we’ll get a clearer picture after Kemp wins the nomination.

ETA: Shocked at Stacey gaining 10 points with Latinos with Kemp as the Republican option. Yeah, I hope Kemp wins the run off. He has clung very tight to Donald Trump on anti-Hispanic rhetoric veiled as being tough on immigration.
« Last Edit: July 20, 2018, 01:10:27 pm by RFKFan68 »Logged

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« Reply #10 on: July 20, 2018, 01:07:01 pm »

I think Abrams has all the chances to win this year, based on this poll.

Democratic enthusiasm will be high and Independents will also shift strongly to her side.
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« Reply #11 on: July 20, 2018, 02:03:07 pm »

Not a great place to be, theoretically this should be one of the best polling periods for Abrams considering the division in the GOP primary.

Do you ever do anything except concern troll?
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« Reply #12 on: July 20, 2018, 03:43:49 pm »

Awesome! This survey sample is whiter than the electorate will actually be.

True. 2014 GA Sen exits pinned the white/black breakdown of the electorate at 64/29 (without an African American leading a major party ticket). SurveyUSA finds the breakdown at 68/24% (*with* an African American leading a major party ticket).

That being said, we all know exit polls are not infallible and that SurveyUSA, while a very reputable pollster, is known for having some screwy crosstabs at times.
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Prolocutor Bagel23
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« Reply #13 on: July 20, 2018, 04:57:13 pm »

Evans would be leading
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« Reply #14 on: July 20, 2018, 04:58:43 pm »

I'm of two minds about this. On one hand, it's pretty good for Abrams that she's only trailing by 2 in an electorate that is certainly less black than the one on election day will be. On the other hand, this should theoretically be one of the times she's polling best due to the GOP infighting over the past couple months.

Overall, this still looks like a respectable loss for Abrams to me.
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« Reply #15 on: July 20, 2018, 05:10:30 pm »

Evans would be leading
so first of all...

1. no she wouldn't, she managed to get destroyed in a primary only slightly uphill battle

2. even if true, abrams is our (better, imo) nominee. time to unite and stop the crap
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« Reply #16 on: July 20, 2018, 05:10:53 pm »

Evans would be leading
Lmao. No.
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« Reply #17 on: July 20, 2018, 06:11:55 pm »


Maybe if she was running for AG (which is what she should have done tbh)
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« Reply #18 on: July 20, 2018, 06:18:22 pm »

The fact that this race is sitting at Safe GOP is embarrassing. I guess they are waiting until after the primary, but still.
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« Reply #19 on: July 20, 2018, 06:31:35 pm »

The gender gap here is nuts.

Not uncommon in GA, considering that the black electorate is basically 60% female. Female voters are disproportionately black and male votes disproportionately white.
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« Reply #20 on: July 20, 2018, 06:40:07 pm »

I'm of two minds about this. On one hand, it's pretty good for Abrams that she's only trailing by 2 in an electorate that is certainly less black than the one on election day will be. On the other hand, this should theoretically be one of the times she's polling best due to the GOP infighting over the past couple months.

Overall, this still looks like a respectable loss for Abrams to me.

This is where I'm at as well. Though it should be almost verboten, looking at those racial crosstabs and adjusting them to 2014's baseline, this is what the poll would show:

Abrams   45.4 ( +2.8 )
Cagle       42.6

Abrams   47.6 ( +4.5 )
Kemp       43.1

(Though FWIW, Carter was leading in polls around this time 4 years ago)
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« Reply #21 on: July 21, 2018, 03:35:07 am »

Freedom poll.

It'll definitely be a close race, but hope Abrams can win this by avoiding a run-off. Not sure that she'll be able to win one, given lower turnout. I know that Democrats overperformed in most recent special elections, but I think her chances are better in the first round to win this one.
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« Reply #22 on: July 21, 2018, 09:17:32 am »

Of course, Bagel's logic is that only racist white Democrats can win in the South
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« Reply #23 on: July 21, 2018, 09:46:17 am »

The fact that Kemp is only leading Abrams by 5% among those 65+ says it all.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but...Abrams just might pull this thing off.
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« Reply #24 on: July 21, 2018, 10:42:25 am »

The fact that Kemp is only leading Abrams by 5% among those 65+ says it all.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but...Abrams just might pull this thing off.

Even though they are not a huge part of the electorate Iím still in awe of that number with Hispanics. I went back and according to 2014 exit polls Carter beat Deal among Hispanics by 6 points (53-47) now Abrams is leading him among that group by 50!!! (Hillary won them 67-27). That huge shift to the Dems, a couple point bump with whites, and huge turnout and a swing to the left (89 to 93ish) with black voters can get her the Governorís mansion.
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