GA-SurveyUSA/11AliveTV: Stacey Abrams only down 2 against both Republicans

[Adam Griffin]

The gender gap here is nuts.

Not uncommon in GA, considering that the black electorate is basically 60% female. Female voters are disproportionately black and male votes disproportionately white.

[Adam Griffin]

I'm of two minds about this. On one hand, it's pretty good for Abrams that she's only trailing by 2 in an electorate that is certainly less black than the one on election day will be. On the other hand, this should theoretically be one of the times she's polling best due to the GOP infighting over the past couple months.

Overall, this still looks like a respectable loss for Abrams to me.

This is where I'm at as well. Though it should be almost verboten, looking at those racial crosstabs and adjusting them to 2014's baseline, this is what the poll would show:

Abrams   45.4 ( +2.8 )
Cagle       42.6

Abrams   47.6 ( +4.5 )
Kemp       43.1

(Though FWIW, Carter was leading in polls around this time 4 years ago)

[Adam Griffin]

Even though they are not a huge part of the electorate I’m still in awe of that number with Hispanics. I went back and according to 2014 exit polls Carter beat Deal among Hispanics by 6 points (53-47) now Abrams is leading him among that group by 50!!! (Hillary won them 67-27). That huge shift to the Dems, a couple point bump with whites, and huge turnout and a swing to the left (89 to 93ish) with black voters can get her the Governor’s mansion.

LOL, that shift in the Hispanic # is basically entirely composed of polling error. When you poll a small sub-population, crosstabs shift a lot between different polls (especially between different types of polls with different methodologies, as in this case).

Yeah, based on exit poll data (i.e. assuming black and white support levels were generally accurate), SoS turnout data by race and Carter's vote share, Carter pulled about 64-65% among non-black, non-white voters in 2014.

That's decent - especially given that midterm non-black PoC voters look different than presidential voters and that a less than insignificant chunk of those voters are Asian (continent), and they are not anywhere nearly as Democratic in GA as they are nationally (thanks, Indians and Vietnamese!).


If I had to speculate, I'd say Carter won 70% of Latinos (it may have very well been close to 50/50 among the rest). Look at the swing in my county (Whitfield) in 2014 in particular; the county with the most Latinos swung the most to Carter. While still not a big share of the vote, I can assure you such a strong improvement wouldn't have happened without strong Latino support (though Carter still improved substantially among blue-collar whites in this part of the state compared to Barnes). It's also the only reason Whitfield didn't swing to Trump in 2016.