2019 Canadian Federal Election Nominations

My comments on each of their chances.

Quote from: Jeppe on July 20, 2018, 01:11:32 PM

Alberta

Calgary Skyview
CPC: Jagdeep Sahota (female, POC) - 06/10/2018

Considering the lead the Tories have in Alberta I could definitely see them winning this back, but will need to do better amongst the South Asian community so I would not be surprised either if the Liberals hold this.

Edmonton Centre
CPC: James Cummings

Will depend a lot on vote splits. Strong vote splits on the left between Liberals and NDP and I think Tories could take this, but weak vote splits and they will not. Provincial election could have impact since if NDP wins or does better than expected that should help them thus stronger vote splits while if it is a UCP landslide, I suspect most progressives will unite behind the Liberals thus Liberal hold.

British Columbia

Burnaby North-Seymour
LPC: Terry Beech - 07/05/2018

Despite opposition to pipeline, NDP is too weak on the North Shore so an NDP win seems unlikely. Tory win possible if they improve a bit in BC and have stronger splits, still I think Terry Beech is favoured to be re-elected.

Courtenay-Alberni
CPC: Byron Horner - 05/31/2018

If Tories win any seats on the Island, this is the one most likely to fall. A big wildcard is how well do the Greens do. If the Greens get in double digits improves the Tories' chances due to vote splits, but if not it will be harder to win this. Otherwise I think the Tories will get over 30% here, but unless they have a strong uptick in the polls unlikely to get over 40%.

Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon
CPC: Brad Vis - 05/31/2018

This is a pretty low hanging fruit so if the CPC cannot pick this up, they likely won't be making gains in BC. Otherwise this is a must win in BC if they want to gain seats and as a matter of fact want to win nationally too.

Saanich-Gulf Islands
CPC: David Busch - 04/29/2018

A sacrificial lamb. Elizabeth May can have this seat as long as she wants it. Even after she retires, demographics have changed a lot in the last ten years. Gary Lunn won in the past due to doing well amongst the silent generation as this riding has a lot of seniors, but now they are more boomers as opposed to silent generation thus less likely to vote Conservative.

Surrey-Newton
CPC: Harpreet Singh (POC)

Another sacrificial lamb. While this riding is somewhat tough to predict as it depends who does well amongst the Sikh vote, I suspect it will be a pretty easy Liberal hold although I could see it flipping to the NDP with Jagmeet Singh as leader. Cannot see it going CPC though.

Manitoba

Elmwood-Transcona
CPC: Lawrence Toet - 02/08/2018

Was close last time so possible pick up, but you also had a very unpopular provincial NDP government which probably hurt their support and with them now gain, I suspect NDP will do better in Manitoba than last time.

Saint Boniface-Saint Vital
CPC: Rejeanne Caron (female, Indigenous) - 02/08/2018

Probably stays liberal and likely not even close, but noticed this area tends to swing quite hard behind whichever side wins. Otherwise South Winnipeg, not so much Saint Boniface but most of the riding is a Red Tory/Blue Liberal so 20 to 25 point swings not uncommon, kind of like Vaughan area in the GTA where you see similar swings as well.

New Brunswick

Fundy Royal
CPC: Rob Moore - 02/01/2018

I think the CPC is favoured here and if they cannot win this, good chance they get shut out of Atlantic Canada again. This is one of the most favourable in Atlantic Canada for them so cannot win here, probably cannot win anywhere in the region.

Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe
LPC: Ginette Petitpas Taylor (female) - 07/04/2018

Normally a fairly safe Liberal riding so I suspect our health minister is easily re-elected. The Liberals would have to be in third in the polls to be at risk of losing here which I don't see happening.

Newfoundland and Labrador

Bonavista-Burin-Trinity
CPC: Mike Windsor

Another sacrificial lamb. Will probably do a lot better than the CPC did in 2015, but still lose badly and the Liberals will win this by 40+ points.

Nova Scotia

Cumberland-Colchester
CPC: Scott Armstrong

Depends if Bill Casey runs again or not (He is getting up there age wise). Bill Casey is popular enough that if he runs, Liberals should hold this, but if he doesn't, I think the Tories have a chance as this is normally pretty favourable terrain for them albeit Tories are more your Red Tories so perhaps the CPC's swing to the right will make this less safe than in the past.

Dartmouth-Cole Harbour
CPC: Jason Cole

Another sacrificial lamb. Most likely a Liberal hold, but there is an outside chance of an NDP pickup of they outperform.

Kings-Hants
CPC: Martha MacQuarrie (female)

As long as Scott Brison remains MP, this is staying Liberal. Even after he retires, this is a very Red Tory area so used to be an easy hold, but not so much anymore so when he retires they have a chance, but it won't be an easy pick up.

Ontario

Bay of Quinte
CPC: Tim Durkin - 04/27/2018

Possible pick-up did go PC provincially mind you popularity of MP and MPP probably had some impact so I would still give the Liberals an edge, but if the Tories want to win in 2019, they need to win in places like this

Etobicoke Centre
CPC: Ted Opitz - 06/29/2018

Most likely Liberal. This will only go Tory if they are on their way to a majority nationally, nonetheless I think they will put up a strong second showing, but uphill battle to win.

Glengarry-Prescott-Russell
CPC: Pierre Lemiuex - 01/25/2018

Possible pick-up, but at the moment leans Liberal, but certainly this is one the Tories need to win if they want to form government. Unlike most rural ridings, Liberals tend to do well due to large Francophone population, but unlike 30 years ago, it is a swing not safe Liberal riding.

Mississauga-Lakeshore
CPC: Stella Ambler (female) - 05/24/2018

Leans Liberal, but certainly could go CPC, a lot will depend on their platform. If they run on a traditional fiscally conservative but moderate platform they have a good chance of winning, but run on a right wing populist platform and this should stay Liberal as this is more your business conservative type riding not right wing populist one. Essentially this has the demographics similar to Romney-Clinton or Tory Remain in UK.

Mississauga-Malton
LPC: Navdeep Bains (POC) - 06/27/2018

I suspect he will easily hold this and unlike provincially I doubt the Tories will be much of a factor. Jagmeet Singh should help the NDP outperform, but not likely enough to actually win here.

Newmarket-Aurora
CPC: Lois Brown (female) - 03/15/2018

Low hanging fruit for the Tories so if they cannot pick this one up, are unlikely to get over 120 seats nationally. I could see Tories winning this but still losing. I cannot see them winning the most seats and losing this.

Peterborough-Kawartha
CPC: Michael Skinner - 03/15/2018

Leans liberal now, but vote splits key. Stronger vote splits and Tories are likely to pick this up while weaker vote splits stays Liberal. NDP won't win here but will play king maker. In terms of polls I suspect Liberals sweep Peterborough, but asides from maybe Lakefield, Tories win all the polls outside Peterborough.

Scarborough-Rouge Park
CPC: Bobby Singh (POC)

Due to changing demographics tough to predict, but unlike last provincial election, I think this will be an easy Liberal hold, not a close Tory/NDP battle

Simcoe-Grey
CPC: Terry Dowdall - 04/01/2018

This should be an easy Tory hold, if they do lose here expect them to win fewer than 80 seats and have a really bad night.

Quebec

Ahuntsic-Cartierville
LPC: Melanie Joly (female) - 07/15/2018

Easy Liberal hold. She has gotten a lot of criticism, but no danger of her losing her seat.

Hochelaga
LPC: Soraya Martinez (female, POC) - 07/19/2018

Definitely looks good for a Liberal pickup, but being a fairly left wing area, the NDP might still have a chance here. BQ used to do well here, but infighting probably rules them out. CPC won't even get deposit back here.

Saskatchewan

Regina-Lewvan
CPC: Warren Steinley - 04/10/2018

Definitely could be a pickup, vote splits key here. Scheer being from Saskatchewan will help a bit, but this is a centre-left riding so CPC at best will get in the low 40s.

Saskatoon-University
CPC: Corey Tochor - 03/10/2018

This one could be vulnerable as Trost won largely due to vote splits so if the Tories decline further and progressives coalesce around the NDP, they could win this. Nonetheless much like with Simcoe-Grey, knocking off sitting incumbent probably greatly improves CPC chances as both had incumbents who were quite extreme in their views and probably too extreme for the riding's they represented.

Equity
CPC = 22% female, 17% POC or Indigenous.
LPC = 60% female, 33% POC or Indigenous.

Completion
CPC = 23/338 = 6.8% complete
LPC = 5/338 = 1.5% complete
NDP = 0/338 = 0% complete

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