2004 Gubernatorial Elections

[opebo]

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With the demographics of the state, I think Democrats are always competitive. They probably start at about 40% and they just have to pick up the rest.   I think even Holden would be competitive. Blunt will have to fight hard.

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By the same token, Republicans start with slightly more than 40% in Missouri.  Margins tend to be 51% to 49% or even closer, but Republicans win the 51% about 60% of the time - we've had a few more GOP senators and governors than Dems for the last couple of decades.  This moribund old state changes only very slowly, but is trending just slightly more GOP over the years.  

I actually haven't been in the US for 5 months or so, so I can't report on the mood in MO directly, but all that I hear is that Holden is unpopular - certainly he was barely elected the first time.  Its going to come down to another typical landslide for the Democrat in St. Louis and a landslide for the Republican in the rural and suburban parts of the state, balancing out to neary 50/50.  It could easily be influenced by Bush getting (I predict) a breakout, for Missouri, 52-53%.  The Blunt family name is well known in the state, certainly positive in the non-urban parts.

[opebo]

There is no doubt that Holden is in serious trouble here in Missouri.  He has been unpopular from the get go.  His first mistake was holding an
inauguration that cost $1 million.  The state always pays $125,000, but he raised the rest.  This didn't go over too well given the state's budget problems.  Of course the biggest problem is his bad luck of gaining the office just as the economy tanked.  Any how he faces a tough primary challenge from state auditor Claire Mccaskil.  His GOP opponent will be secretary of state Matt Blunt.  Blunt's only 33. He served one term in the Missouri house and then got elected Sec. of State against a weak opponent.  It will be interesting, because Blunt has never really ran a "real" race. His house seat was safe GOP and he had a huge war chest against an under funded opponent in the Sec. of State's race.  The last poll I saw had Blunt ahead of Holden by 2 points and Mccaskil ahead of Blunt by 2 points.  I would be willing to dump Holden in the primary if Mccaskil would have a better chance of saving the seat.  

With the demographics of the state, I think Democrats are always competitive. They probably start at about 40% and they just have to pick up the rest.   I think even Holden would be competitive. Blunt will have to fight hard.

Just one note - you're absolutely right the Democrats start with at least 40%, but so do the Republicans.  In fact I think both start with about 46% as you don't see many elections won more decisively than this in MO.