2022 Senate election

[😥]

I know it's too early to talk about it, but though:
Which states will elect Democrats, and which Republicans
Will the 2022 be the year of retirements?

[😥]

Have already announced retirement:
1)John McCain-Arizona (R)
2)Richard Burr- North Carolina (R)
3)Ron Johnson- Wisconsin (R)

In my opinion, also, will be announced:
1)Richard Shelby- Alabama (R)
2)Johnny Isakson- Georgia (R)
3)Chuck Grassley- Iowa (R)
4)Pat Toomey- Pennsylvania (R)
5)Patrick Leahy- Vermont (D)

[Wiz in Wis]

Added some ratings per above.

1)John McCain-Arizona (R)  [Toss-up]
2)Richard Burr- North Carolina (R) [Toss-up]
3)Ron Johnson- Wisconsin (R) [Toss-up]

In my opinion, also, will be announced:
1)Richard Shelby- Alabama (R) [Safe R]
2)Johnny Isakson- Georgia (R) [Leans R]
3)Chuck Grassley- Iowa (R) [Toss-up]
4)Pat Toomey- Pennsylvania (R) [Toss-up]
5)Patrick Leahy- Vermont (D) [Safe D]

[JG]

Added some ratings per above.

1)John McCain-Arizona (R)  [Toss-up]
2)Richard Burr- North Carolina (R) [Toss-up]
3)Ron Johnson- Wisconsin (R) [Toss-up]

In my opinion, also, will be announced:
1)Richard Shelby- Alabama (R) [Safe R]
2)Johnny Isakson- Georgia (R) [Leans R]
3)Chuck Grassley- Iowa (R) [Toss-up]
4)Pat Toomey- Pennsylvania (R) [Toss-up]
5)Patrick Leahy- Vermont (D) [Safe D]

If all these people actually retire, the GOP is probably hoping for Trump to lose in 2020 or the Dems might get close to a supermajority in the senate.

[😥]

1)John McCain-Arizona (R) Tilt D
2)Richard Burr- North Carolina (R) Tossup
3)Ron Johnson- Wisconsin (R) Tossup

In my opinion, also, will be announced:
1)Richard Shelby- Alabama (R) Likely R
2)Johnny Isakson- Georgia (R) Tilt R
3)Chuck Grassley- Iowa (R) Tilt R
4)Pat Toomey- Pennsylvania (R) Tossup
5)Patrick Leahy- Vermont (D) Safe D

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I would put PA at Lean D. From what I have heard, Toomey wants to give up his standing go back to the heritage foundation, and Fetterman wants the seat.

[UWS]

If Martha McSally doesn’t win this year, I see her running for McCain’s seat in 2022. Who knows, maybe Ben Quayle too could run for this seat.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If Martha McSally doesn’t win this year, I see her running for McCain’s seat in 2022. Who knows, maybe Ben Quayle too could run for this seat.

Martha probably won't even win the primary then. She wasn't even winning it now until Arpaio showed up, and even now with a plurality no where near 50. And if she loses this year, that all the more just wrecks her chances of getting the nom in 2022 for McCain's Senate seat.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Plus it's not like the candidate starved VA GOP. They would have literally no reason to renominate that loser especially when they have plenty of other good winning candidates on the bench.

[Zaybay]

My prediction:
Trump loses
All Competitive races
AZ- Dem reelected in a close call(this election is up in 2020 guys, unless McCain makes it past 2020, and holds his seat)

PA- Dem win an open seat by a super close margin(Toomey retires)

WI- Dem wins an open seat by a close, but comfortable margin( Johnson retires)

NC- R wins the open seat(Burr retires)

GA- A pure tossup, down to the last vote(Isakson retires)

IA- R wins by a comfortable margin, unless a populist Dem has won, where its now a complete pure tossup(Grassley retires)

If Trump Wins

All state previously mentioned vote D.

AZ- Dem beats R incumbent by a large margin

FL- Marco Rubio wins reelection by a small margin

OH- Portman wins reelection by a margin of around 5%

Thats what I think, anyway, but yeah, there are going to be a lot of retirements from the R caucus in the coming years.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

PA, Iowa* pending retirement, NC, WI

[InheritTheWind]

If Trump/the GOP is still occupying the White House, holy hell that's a wave. I'd say the Democrats would be 50/50 at worst in AZ, FL, GA, IA, NC, PA, and WI, with outside shots at snagging AK, MO, and OH.

If the Democrats are occupying the White House, the only seats I could really see them losing are NH and CO. AZ, FL, NC, PA, WI would all be winnable though.

[I’m not Stu]

Kansas, South Carolina, and Louisiana would flip before Arkansas. Ohio flips before Kentucky.

[Medal506]

Added some ratings per above.

1)John McCain-Arizona (R)  [Toss-up]
2)Richard Burr- North Carolina (R) [Toss-up]
3)Ron Johnson- Wisconsin (R) [Toss-up]

In my opinion, also, will be announced:
1)Richard Shelby- Alabama (R) [Safe R]
2)Johnny Isakson- Georgia (R) [Leans R]
3)Chuck Grassley- Iowa (R) [Toss-up]
4)Pat Toomey- Pennsylvania (R) [Toss-up]
5)Patrick Leahy- Vermont (D) [Safe D]

If all these people actually retire, the GOP is probably hoping for Trump to lose in 2020 or the Dems might get close to a supermajority in the senate.

The GOP didn't care when they got wiped out in 2006 and the Dems didn't care when they got wiped out in 2014. The presidency is what both parties really care most about which I personally think is a bit silly given that congress is the branch that passes and makes laws.

[Politician]

Trump is president:

Democrat is president:

[Roll Roons]

AL: Safe R either way
AK: Safe R either way
AR: Safe R either way
AZ: Lean D under Trump, Tossup under Dem
CA: Safe D either way
CO: Safe D under Trump, Likely D under Dem
CT: Safe D either way
FL: Tossup under Trump, Likely R under Dem
GA: Lean R under Trump, Likely R under Dem
IA: Tossup under Trump, Likely R under Dem
ID: Safe R either way
IL: Safe D under Trump, Likely D under Dem
IN: Safe R either way
KS: Safe R either way
KY: Safe R either way
LA: Safe R either way
MD: Safe D either way
MO: Likely R under Trump, Safe R under Dem
NC: Tossup under Trump, Lean R under Dem
ND: Safe R either way
NH: Likely D under Trump, Tossup under Dem
NV: Likely D under Trump, Tossup under Dem
NY: Safe D either way
PA: Lean D under Trump, Tossup under Dem
OH: Likely R under Trump, Safe R under Dem
OK: Safe R either way
OR: Safe D either way
SC: Safe R either way
SD: Safe R either way
WA: Safe D either way
WI: Lean D under Trump, Tossup under Dem
UT: Safe R either way
VT: Safe D either way

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt D WI, PA, CO, NH, NV, IL
Tossup NC, AZ, OH(Portman) & IA(Grassley retires)
Tilt R FL(Rubio), MO(Blunt)

[Xing]

It's way too early, but fine:

If a Democrat is president:

If Trump is president:

[UWS]

Tilt D WI, PA, CO, NH, NV, IL
Tossup NC, AZ, OH(Portman) & IA(Grassley retires)
Tilt R FL(Rubio), MO(Blunt)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Johnson retires and Rubio is favored. Grassley might retire

Tilt D CO, Il, NV, NH, WI, Pa.
Narrow R advantage IA, OH, NC
Pure tossup. AZz

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Most likely Dem pickup is pretty clearly PA, most likely R pickup pretty clearly NH.  I would expect GA to be an easier Dem pickup than NC by 2022.  Also would not have Kansas as Safe R in a Trump midterm.  In a Dem midterm, Republicans probably flip NH and NV, but very unclear where they go from there.  They basically have the 2018 Dem problem with this senate map, and the possibility of a very strong Dem taking a seat in NC or GA anyway is real.  

I don't think the IA/OH tier of Midwestern states is reachable for Dems in federal elections anymore given that they failed to elect a governor in either state in the 2018 environment.  I am almost ready to say the same about Florida, but let's see what it does in 2020.  If it's a several % Trump win, would confirm the state is gone for Democrats with the retiree influx.


AZ is interesting.  If McSally holds on despite a Trump loss, she is safe, and if she loses despite a Trump reelection, the Dem is going to be safe, but if the Dem narrowly wins while Trump loses reelection or McSally narrowly wins while Trump wins as well, it could pretty easily flip back.  Regardless, one of 2020 or 2022 is likely to be a strong Dem year, so I would be surprised if they don't pick up that seat either time.  

Portman got lucky and Strickland collapsed. Brown cearly is a frontrunner for Veep. If Brown is Veep, Tim Ryan will clearly run against Portman. Aa for IA, Grassley is on the retirement watch


2-5 seats Dems win IA, OH, NC/AZ, WI & P.A.