Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[Blackacre]

I wonder if the trend of Trump's approval basically staying in the same 2 point range will hold for the next couple years

Add 6 to 42% and you get 48% of the 2PV. That's a loss between 3 and 5%. He basically has to get really lucky again AND the economy has to stay strong. If it isn't, I think he gets like 45% of the the 2PV.

is "approval plus 6" an actual thing we can rely on?

[Person Man]

I wonder if the trend of Trump's approval basically staying in the same 2 point range will hold for the next couple years

Add 6 to 42% and you get 48% of the 2PV. That's a loss between 3 and 5%. He basically has to get really lucky again AND the economy has to stay strong. If it isn't, I think he gets like 45% of the the 2PV.

is "approval plus 6" an actual thing we can rely on?

Worked in 2016. Trump was at 39, Clinton was at 43. Undecideds broke 3:2 for the challenger.

[pbrower2a]

Morning Consult: fifty-state maps of approval and disapproval for November 2018.. Districts of Maine and Nebraska are not shown.


Approval:

55% or higher
50-54%
under 50% but Trump ahead in approval
exact tie in approval (white)
45-49% but Trump behind
40-44%
under 40%


Swing states decided by 10% or less in 2016 and anything close this time:

AZ 47-49
CO 43-53
FL 49-47
GA 49-46
IN 52-45 (a surprise!)
IA  44-52
KS 50-46 (a surprise!)
ME 43-52
MI 43-52
MN 43-53
NC 49-47
ND 50-46 (a surprise!)
NE 51-45 (a surprise!)
NH 42-55
NM 40-56
NV 45-50
OH 48-48
PA 46-51
TX 51-44
UT 50-46 (Trump got less than 50% of the popular vote in Utah in 2016)
VA 46-50
WI  43-52

Highest Trump approval 66-30
Lowest Trump approval in a state CA 31-65
(DC 18-78)

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

[pbrower2a]

(to my post)
 
I never buy these races against some mythical generic Democrat or someone else. There are lots of people who dislike Trump who will hold their nose to vote for him, just like last time, when presented with a demonized version of an actual flesh-and-blood alternative candidate. Hillary Clinton is a course exhibit a.

"Generic Republican" and "Generic Democrat" as challengers to the Incumbent are highly active until the winter preceding the election and then go into hibernation about as the real bears start emerging from hibernation. "Generic Democrat" and "Generic Republican " often seem highly promising about a year before the election and then somehow disappear until  after the election is over.

this said, the numbers are atrocious for Trump. "Generic Republican" probably never looked anywhere near that good against Obama or Clinton.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Washington Post Fact Checker Poll conducted by NORC, Nov. 29-Dec. 10, 1025 adults (comparison is to the last NORC survey I can find, for AP in Oct.)

Approve 43 (+3)
Disapprove 56 (-3)

Strongly approve 16 (-5)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-1)

This poll asks a number of "fact check" questions about various false claims made by both sides.  The individual questions are interesting, and the overall results are:

Average response across 11 false claims by Trump:

Overall: 41% selected the True response, 25% selected False response, 34% unsure
D: 47 T, 20 F, 32 unsure
R: 34 T, 35 F, 30 unsure
I: 41 T, 23 T, 34 unsure

Average response across 4 false claims by Democrats:

Overall: 33 T, 31 F, 35 unsure
D: 26 T, 39 F, 34 unsure
R: 45 T, 22 F, 33 unsure
I: 33 T, 29 F, 37 unsure

[Person Man]

Washington Post Fact Checker Poll conducted by NORC, Nov. 29-Dec. 10, 1025 adults (comparison is to the last NORC survey I can find, for AP in Oct.)

Approve 43 (+3)
Disapprove 56 (-3)

Strongly approve 16 (-5)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-1)

This poll asks a number of "fact check" questions about various false claims made by both sides.  The individual questions are interesting, and the overall results are:

Average response across 11 false claims by Trump:

Overall: 41% selected the True response, 25% selected False response, 34% unsure
D: 47 T, 20 F, 32 unsure
R: 34 T, 35 F, 30 unsure
I: 41 T, 23 T, 34 unsure

Average response across 4 false claims by Democrats:

Overall: 33 T, 31 F, 35 unsure
D: 26 T, 39 F, 34 unsure
R: 45 T, 22 F, 33 unsure
I: 33 T, 29 F, 37 unsure

So it's almost 3 to 1 now?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Washington Post Fact Checker Poll conducted by NORC, Nov. 29-Dec. 10, 1025 adults (comparison is to the last NORC survey I can find, for AP in Oct.)

Approve 43 (+3)
Disapprove 56 (-3)

Strongly approve 16 (-5)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-1)

This poll asks a number of "fact check" questions about various false claims made by both sides.  The individual questions are interesting, and the overall results are:

Average response across 11 false claims by Trump:

Overall: 41% selected the True response, 25% selected False response, 34% unsure
D: 47 T, 20 F, 32 unsure
R: 34 T, 35 F, 30 unsure
I: 41 T, 23 T, 34 unsure

Average response across 4 false claims by Democrats:

Overall: 33 T, 31 F, 35 unsure
D: 26 T, 39 F, 34 unsure
R: 45 T, 22 F, 33 unsure
I: 33 T, 29 F, 37 unsure

So it's almost 3 to 1 now?

Strongly?  It appears so, although I have a small bit of doubt that they might have swapped the strongly approve and somewhat approve numbers.  16 for strongly approve is the lowest I've seen so far.

[Person Man]

Washington Post Fact Checker Poll conducted by NORC, Nov. 29-Dec. 10, 1025 adults (comparison is to the last NORC survey I can find, for AP in Oct.)

Approve 43 (+3)
Disapprove 56 (-3)

Strongly approve 16 (-5)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-1)

This poll asks a number of "fact check" questions about various false claims made by both sides.  The individual questions are interesting, and the overall results are:

Average response across 11 false claims by Trump:

Overall: 41% selected the True response, 25% selected False response, 34% unsure
D: 47 T, 20 F, 32 unsure
R: 34 T, 35 F, 30 unsure
I: 41 T, 23 T, 34 unsure

Average response across 4 false claims by Democrats:

Overall: 33 T, 31 F, 35 unsure
D: 26 T, 39 F, 34 unsure
R: 45 T, 22 F, 33 unsure
I: 33 T, 29 F, 37 unsure

So it's almost 3 to 1 now?

Strongly?  It appears so, although I have a small bit of doubt that they might have swapped the strongly approve and somewhat approve numbers.  16 for strongly approve is the lowest I've seen so far.

People will only vote for this guy if nothing happens.

[GeorgiaModerate]

NBC/WSJ, Dec. 9-12, 900 adults (prior poll: Nov. 1-3)

Approve 43 (-3)
Disapprove 54 (+2)

Vote to re-elect Trump 38
Vote for Democratic candidate 52

Interesting:

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[pbrower2a]

NBC/WSJ, Dec. 9-12, 900 adults (prior poll: Nov. 1-3)

Approve 43 (-3)
Disapprove 54 (+2)

Vote to re-elect Trump 38
Vote for Democratic candidate 52

"Vote to re-elect Trump" is (1) 5% below disapproval, and (2) close to the level of the vote that Hoover got in 1932 and Carter got in 1980 in their terribly-failed bids for re-election. Of course, it is unfair to compare Trump to either Hoover or Carter because neither Hoover nor Carter was associated with any form of moral turpitude.


"Vote for someone else" is close to disapproval -- off by 10%.

The zone of indecision is a full 10%.   

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It could be that many Republicans are thinking that either

(1) Trump has been pushing too far and too fast, or
(2) they expect Democrats to fail.

Republicans won big in 1994, 2010, and 2014 with the aid of well-funded campaigns by special interests. Republicans actually made gains in the Senate this time.
   

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Trump's approval on November 8, 2016 was 38% and 45% on November 6, 2018. Holy **** imagine how well he would do with an approval of 51% on November 3, 2020!

[pbrower2a]

Trump's approval on November 8, 2016 was 38% and 45% on November 6, 2018. Holy **** imagine how well he would do with an approval of 51% on November 3, 2020!

Of course this could be satire...

with so much as 42% approval on January 1, 2020 he has a chance of winning if he has a competent and spirited campaign for re-election that resonates in the hearts of Americans on the margin of voting for or against him, there is no strong conservative alternative as a third-party or independent opponent, and perhaps the Green Party or some other left-wing alternative takes some votes from the Democrats.

The Democratic nominee will ideally look at the polls and recognize that getting an impressive share of the national popular vote by simply running up the totals in California, Maryland, Massachusetts, and New York will be adequate for an electoral win. The Democrat must ask himself (herself?) what one can do to lose.

An incumbent with 51% approval is likely to get 55% or so of the popular vote.

Now how does Trump get 51% approval? I think he must cheat to win. He is no miracle-worker with the economy or foreign policy.     

[GeorgiaModerate]

Iowa Republicans only, CNN/Selzer, Dec. 10-13, 450 registered Republicans

Approve 81
Disapprove 14

If Trump is the nominee in 2020...

Definitely vote to re-elect 67
Consider someone else 19
Definitely vote for someone else 10

[Person Man]

Iowa Republicans only, CNN/Selzer, Dec. 10-13, 450 registered Republicans

Approve 81
Disapprove 14

If Trump is the nominee in 2020...

Definitely vote to re-elect 67
Consider someone else 19
Definitely vote for someone else 10

Everything has to go his way for him to be reelected if this is indicative. If 2016 didn't happen, I would say this is a cooked goose.

[pbrower2a]

Iowa Republicans only, CNN/Selzer, Dec. 10-13, 450 registered Republicans

Approve 81
Disapprove 14

If Trump is the nominee in 2020...

Definitely vote to re-elect 67
Consider someone else 19
Definitely vote for someone else 10

Everything has to go his way for him to be reelected if this is indicative. If 2016 didn't happen, I would say this is a cooked goose.

President Trump needs to have higher than 81% approval among Republicans in a state with a 50-50 split among partisan Democrats and Republicans to get Iowa's electoral votes. The only early indicator that Trump would win Iowa in 2020 is that he won it so decisively in 2016. I have typically seen Iowa as electoral votes #279 to #284 for the Democratic nominee for President, and this does not change my opinion of the President's chances for re-election. What can? So far, about all that can is to see such a state as Arizona, Florida, or North Carolina becoming more D than Iowa.

Not one vote from 2016 will be relevant to a re-election bid by Donald Trump in 2020.     

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 38 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

[Person Man]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 38 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

lol

[pbrower2a]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 38 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

Less than 23 months before the next presidential election, he has his work cut out for him.

[Crumpets]

There is one good piece of news for Trump right now: His disapproval rating on RCP is extremely low right now. Granted his approval is also low, but his disapproval just ticked up slightly from its lowest point since June. Perhaps people are just taking a break from politics for a bit following the midterms, so we have more undecideds.

[BlueSwan]

Perhaps people are just taking a break from politics for a bit following the midterms, so we have more undecideds.

Which is a bit crazy. How on earth do you suddenly become "undecided" on Trump. The most divisive president in history.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rasmussen's daily poll, which Trump was touting again just a couple weeks ago, has seen his approval numbers gradually decline over the last few days.  Today it's at 46/53, which is the lowest since 45/53 on Sep. 12.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, Dec. 14-16, 1994 RV (1-week change)

Approve 41 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (+4)

Strongly approve 22 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+4)

[pbrower2a]

Morning Consult/Politico, Dec. 14-16, 1994 RV (1-week change)

Approve 41 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (+4)

Strongly approve 22 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+4)

This is one of the most unflattering polls ever of the Trump Administration from  this pollster.

Two critical questions:

POL13
Do you think President Trump’s campaign worked with Russia to influence the outcome of the 2016 presidential election?

Yes, I think President Trump’s campaign worked with Russia to influence the outcome of the 2016 presidential election.  806 (45%)

No, I don’t think President Trump’s campaign worked
with Russia to influence the outcome of the 2016
presidential election.  709 (36%)

Don’t know / No opinion    389 (20%)

POL14

And do you think President Trump has tried to impede or obstruct the investigation
into whether his campaign had ties to Russia?

Yes, I think President Trump has tried to impede or obstruct the investigation into whether his campaign had ties to Russia. 966 (48%)

No, I don’t think President Trump has tried to impede or obstruct the investigation into whether his campaign had ties to Russia. 652  (33%)

Don’t know / No opinion    375  (19%)

Nearly half of the people polled believe that the President has committed a crime of some kind either to get elected or to thwart an investigation of his real or imagined connection to Russian figures trying to get him elected.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Economist/YouGov, Dec. 16-18, 1500 adults including 1316 RV (1-week change)

Adults:

Approve 41 (-2)
Disapprove 50 (+1)

Strongly approve 24 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+3)

RV:

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Strongly approve 27 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac, Dec. 12-17, 1147 RV (1-month change)

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

Strongly approve 31 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 46 (-1)