Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[Person Man]

Quinnipiac, Dec. 12-17, 1147 RV (1-month change)

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

Strongly approve 31 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 46 (-1)

So as we enter the lame duck session and the eye of the storm, the only change since ED'18 has been that fewer people actually care?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/SusanPage/status/1075749318802464768

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Quinnipiac, Dec. 12-17, 1147 RV (1-month change)

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

Strongly approve 31 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 46 (-1)

So as we enter the lame duck session and the eye of the storm, the only change since ED'18 has been that fewer people actually care?

At the end of the day, if polarization really has come this far, I'll take being in the 55% over the 45%.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/SusanPage/status/1075749318802464768

At this rate, he loses by 4-6.

[pbrower2a]

Trump support is stable, is it not?

Using my usual proxy of 100-DISapproval, the President stands to get 46% of the popular vote in 2020.

The bad news for Democrats: that is about what he got in 2016, and he won with that because the Democratic nominee simply ran up the popular vote in a few states.

I expected to need a new map for after the 2018 election. I found new proxies more favorable to Trump, but even the most sympathetic to him shows him losing to a Democrat who gets 284 electoral votes (Clinton 2016 +IA + MI + PA +WI).
 

[Virginiá]

RIP

Gallup retreats from political polling again under new leadership

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/21/gallup-political-polling-leadership-1072151

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Probably another major factor - Trump's extraordinarily stubborn range of approvals:

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By 2020, Gallup will probably switch to a quarterly basis while Rasmussen ups its polling to 3 times daily

[GeorgiaModerate]

ARG monthly economic survey, Dec. 17-20, 1100 adults

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+2)

[pbrower2a]

RIP

Gallup retreats from political polling again under new leadership

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/21/gallup-political-polling-leadership-1072151

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Probably another major factor - Trump's extraordinarily stubborn range of approvals:

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By 2020, Gallup will probably switch to a quarterly basis while Rasmussen ups its polling to 3 times daily

Brazil might be more interesting.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 40 (+2)
Disapprove 55 (-2)

[Woody]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 40 (+2)
Disapprove 55 (-2)

Christmas bump?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 40 (+2)
Disapprove 55 (-2)

Christmas bump?

Or normal noise.  It was 40/56 two weeks ago, and Gallup has been quite bouncy lately.

[Comrade Funk]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 40 (+2)
Disapprove 55 (-2)

Christmas bump?

Ras has him at 46 this week (they usually have him at 50), which is like 35 once you realize it's Ras.

[pbrower2a]

Morning Consult, registered voters:

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https://morningconsult.com/2018/12/26/trumps-popularity-revisits-low-as-government-agencies-shut-down/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult, registered voters:

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https://morningconsult.com/2018/12/26/trumps-popularity-revisits-low-as-government-agencies-shut-down/

For comparison:

This week: 39/56
Last week: 41/55
2 weeks ago: 43/51

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Morning Consult, registered voters:

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https://morningconsult.com/2018/12/26/trumps-popularity-revisits-low-as-government-agencies-shut-down/

So pretty much, 51% blame Trump and the Republicans compared to only 31% for the Democrats... yikes! #TrumpShutdown

[pbrower2a]

When will Donald Trump recognize that pushing a deficit-bloating, graft-ridden, environmentally-destructive border wall is a political disaster? Not that I endorse such, but if he really wanted to serve Corporate America (the only America that matters to him) he could have instead pushed a national Duty-to-Starve (OK, Right-to-Work) law and sought the abolition of the minimum wage law.  

January 3 is a week away. Having achieved less in 23 months as President than any President since Coolidge in such a time (and in Coolidge's time, government was really small), he might achieve even less in the next two years.  

[ProudModerate2]

... For comparison:

This week: 39/56
Last week: 41/55
2 weeks ago: 43/51

People are starting to wake-up.
Hopefully this trend of trump's political demise continues through 2020.

[pbrower2a]

    An analysis of VoteCast, a nationwide poll of more than 115,000 midterm voters conducted for The Associated Press by NORC at the University of Chicago, highlights the fractures.

    Compared with the 27% of voters who describe themselves as strong Trump supporters, the "somewhat" Trump voters are much more likely to disapprove of Trump on key issues such as immigration and health care, and to express divergent opinions on a need for a border wall, gun control and climate change. They are much more likely to question his trustworthiness and temperament.

    They are less likely to call themselves conservative, less likely to be evangelical Christians and more likely to have voted for Democrats in 2018. They are more educated, somewhat more likely to be women, and more likely to live in suburbs.




https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-shows-trump-appears-to-be-losing-somewhat-supporters-with-antics-2018-12?utm_content=buffer3a9da&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer-bi

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harvard/Harris, Dec. 24-25, 1473 RV (1-month change)

Approve 44 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

Strongly approve 20 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 38 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/AJD716/status/1079467566056308739

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/AJD716/status/1079467566056308739

New England, the West, and the Upper Midwest look very ugly for him.

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/AJD716/status/1079467566056308739

Old, but things have yet to truly change in overall polling since the election. Things might be more interesting once Congress convenes. I expect polls to start flowing in in the middle of next week.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup corrected last week's result from 40/55 to 39/55, compared to 38/57 the prior week and 40/56 the one before.  This might be the last weekly Gallup poll; I don't know if they'll release one today due to the holidays.  They usually release on Mondays around 1pm ET, but haven't released one today.  Starting in January, Gallup will switch to monthly polls released on or around the 15th.

[pbrower2a]

When President Trump is even in Georgia in approval and disapproval  (no Democratic nominee has won the  state since 1992) and Texas (no Democratic nominee has won the state since 1976), he is in deep trouble. 

[Politician]

https://twitter.com/AJD716/status/1079467566056308739

But but but Atlas told me Ohio and Iowa are Safe R and RI/CT/DE are swing states in 2020!