Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[Zaybay]

I think its interesting to note the difference between Trump approval and Republican support. While Trump had negative approval in IA, OH, and FL, and was tied in GA/TX, the GOP was able to win major races in these states. This suggests that there is a segment of the electorate that either are neutral/dont like Trump, but are Republican voters, which suggests that a 3rd party may be able to siphon some votes on the presidential level.

There is also the fact that, while this is a midterm, these numbers are not good, anywhere. The Upper Midwest looks terrible, the Northeast, mostly ME and NH, look terrible, the South West looks terrible, and even some solid GOP states are kind iffy on the guy. Not a recipe for a reelection, but that is in two years time, and things can significantly change.

[pbrower2a]

I think its interesting to note the difference between Trump approval and Republican support. While Trump had negative approval in IA, OH, and FL, and was tied in GA/TX, the GOP was able to win major races in these states. This suggests that there is a segment of the electorate that either are neutral/dont like Trump, but are Republican voters, which suggests that a 3rd party may be able to siphon some votes on the presidential level.

There is also the fact that, while this is a midterm, these numbers are not good, anywhere. The Upper Midwest looks terrible, the Northeast, mostly ME and NH, look terrible, the South West looks terrible, and even some solid GOP states are kind iffy on the guy. Not a recipe for a reelection, but that is in two years time, and things can significantly change.

Trump can be less successful than his Republican followers in the Senate and in Governorships. Some states are drifting R (clearly Indiana and Missouri), but support for the President is very shaky in some states. Is this a partisan  trend in some states overall or is it only Trump.

So if I see a poll from Iowa (and that is one of the states I see most likely to see most heavily active in polling) with this result:

Approval, President Donald Trump:

Strong approval 22%
Slight approval 15%
Slight disapproval  8%
Strong disapproval 50%

Approval, Senator Joni Ernst

Strong approval 33%
Slight approval 12%
Slight disapproval 14%
Strong disapproval 32%

...Trump is down 37-58 in Iowa and really has no chance to win the state. Ernst is down 45-46 in Iowa, but with a focused, attentive, and spirited campaign she has a clear chance to win. She needs to pick up a majority of undecided voters, but that is possible with a competent campaign. She won in 2014, so she must be presumed to be doing something right.

Now imagine this:
Approval, President Donald Trump:

Strong approval 22%
Slight approval 15%
Slight disapproval  8%
Strong disapproval 50%


Approval, Senator Joni Ernst

Strong approval 28%
Slight approval 12%
Slight disapproval 14%
Strong disapproval 41%

...Trump is down 37-58 in Iowa and really has no chance to win the state. Ernst is down 40-55 in Iowa, but with a focused, attentive, and spirited campaign she has a clear chance to win.

Trump is going down, and Senator Ernst is in deep political trouble. 100-DISapproval is a reasonable expression of the ceiling for a candidate seeking re-election in a statewide election, which includes not only a Senatorial race but also a contest for "Electors for the President".

To see whether the Party has a problem or whether it is candidates, then look at other measures, like approval of statewide officials (especially the Governor). 

[Farmlands]

Ultimately, you should be looking at his midterm approval ratings, the national environment shouldn't shift much, rather than how the governors or senators' races went. This is due to the fact that Trump is a more extreme figure than establishment Republicans and the few that matched him generally underperformed as well (Kobach, King).

[pbrower2a]

Ultimately, you should be looking at his midterm approval ratings, the national environment shouldn't shift much, rather than how the governors or senators' races went. This is due to the fact that Trump is a more extreme figure than establishment Republicans and the few that matched him generally underperformed as well (Kobach, King).

For now, yes. I've seen only one statewide approval rating, and that was for a state that can least tell us anything (Massachusetts). Once the holiday weekends are over we should start to see statewide polls frequently. Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, and North Carolina should be interesting. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ultimately, you should be looking at his midterm approval ratings, the national environment shouldn't shift much, rather than how the governors or senators' races went. This is due to the fact that Trump is a more extreme figure than establishment Republicans and the few that matched him generally underperformed as well (Kobach, King).

For now, yes. I've seen only one statewide approval rating, and that was for a state that can least tell us anything (Massachusetts). Once the holiday weekends are over we should start to see statewide polls frequently. Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, and North Carolina should be interesting. 

If you want to dig for it...

Go to the latest Ipsos Trump approval survey (I think http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/CP3_2/ will always work), expand the Personal filter tab, and choose the state you're interested in.  The caveat is that there may not be enough recent responses from that state to have provided a reasonable sample size.  For example, selecting Florida gives us a monthly survey for December with N=355 and approval of 46/50.  But for Georgia, the most recent month we can get is October (N=474, approval 45/48).

[Storr]

Ultimately, you should be looking at his midterm approval ratings, the national environment shouldn't shift much, rather than how the governors or senators' races went. This is due to the fact that Trump is a more extreme figure than establishment Republicans and the few that matched him generally underperformed as well (Kobach, King).

For now, yes. I've seen only one statewide approval rating, and that was for a state that can least tell us anything (Massachusetts). Once the holiday weekends are over we should start to see statewide polls frequently. Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, and North Carolina should be interesting.  

If you want to dig for it...

Go to the latest Ipsos Trump approval survey (I think http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/CP3_2/ will always work), expand the Personal filter tab, and choose the state you're interested in.  The caveat is that there may not be enough recent responses from that state to have provided a reasonable sample size.  For example, selecting Florida gives us a monthly survey for December with N=355 and approval of 46/50.  But for Georgia, the most recent month we can get is October (N=474, approval 45/48).

Texas has a monthly survey for December with N=354 and approval of 45/52. Pennsylvania's is similar with N=351 and approval of 44/53. If those are accurate, team Trump is in deep trouble (though pretty much everyone here already knew that).

[ProudModerate2]

https://twitter.com/AJD716/status/1079467566056308739

When President Trump is even in Georgia in approval and disapproval  (no Democratic nominee has won the  state since 1992) and Texas (no Democratic nominee has won the state since 1976), he is in deep trouble. 

[Badger]

When President Trump is even in Georgia in approval and disapproval  (no Democratic nominee has won the  state since 1992) and Texas (no Democratic nominee has won the state since 1976), he is in deep trouble. 

The key is Trump, like all politicians, but to a greater degree in his case, can convince a number of Voters who disapprove of him to still hold their nose and pull the lever for him in the voting booth. Republicans tend to be better at this than Democrats in demonizing their opponent. Hillary Clinton was a perfect example.

In short, while I think Trump is on borrowed time, don't underestimate the number of people who will still potentially choose him as the lesser of two evils.

[The Mikado]

When President Trump is even in Georgia in approval and disapproval  (no Democratic nominee has won the  state since 1992) and Texas (no Democratic nominee has won the state since 1976), he is in deep trouble. 

The key is Trump, like all politicians, but to a greater degree in his case, can convince a number of Voters who disapprove of him to still hold their nose and pull the lever for him in the voting booth. Republicans tend to be better at this than Democrats in demonizing their opponent. Hillary Clinton was a perfect example.

In short, while I think Trump is on borrowed time, don't underestimate the number of people who will still potentially choose him as the lesser of two evils.

In 2016, Trump did, at the end of the day, dominate among voters who disapproved of both candidates.

Per CNN's exit poll:

both unfavorable 18%


Clinton 30%   
Trump 47%   
Other 23%

(Nearly the entirety of Other came from the both unfavorable camp)

The question is how many of those "Disapprove of both, vote Trump" voters are because Trump was the change option in 2016: the GOP were out of the White House and he represented a shift. He's now an incumbent president.

[pbrower2a]

When President Trump is even in Georgia in approval and disapproval  (no Democratic nominee has won the  state since 1992) and Texas (no Democratic nominee has won the state since 1976), he is in deep trouble. 

The key is Trump, like all politicians, but to a greater degree in his case, can convince a number of Voters who disapprove of him to still hold their nose and pull the lever for him in the voting booth. Republicans tend to be better at this than Democrats in demonizing their opponent. Hillary Clinton was a perfect example.

In short, while I think Trump is on borrowed time, don't underestimate the number of people who will still potentially choose him as the lesser of two evils.

In 2016, Trump did, at the end of the day, dominate among voters who disapproved of both candidates.

Per CNN's exit poll:

both unfavorable 18%


Clinton 30%   
Trump 47%   
Other 23%

(Nearly the entirety of Other came from the both unfavorable camp)

The question is how many of those "Disapprove of both, vote Trump" voters are because Trump was the change option in 2016: the GOP were out of the White House and he represented a shift. He's now an incumbent president.

In 2020 any vote for Donald Trump will effectively be for 'more of the same'. Approval of the President has generally declined, and disapproval has steadily risen.  Of those who found Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton both unfavorable yet still voted in 2016, such will split between those who find

(1) Trump better than expected, and suitable for re-election
(2) Trump as expected, and suitable for re-election
(3) Trump disappointing, but better than the alternative

-- and those will vote for Trump in 2020.

On the other hand there will be those who find

(4) Trump a major disappointment, and unworthy of re-election
(5) Trump as expected, but still unworthy of re-election
(6) Trump a little better than expected, but still unworthy of election

and the final  category

(7) utterly unable to make a choice.

I cannot promise that the Democratic nominee will be a suitable pick for 2020. There can always be cultural baggage or skeletons in the closet.

Trump is not likely to win over people who found Hillary Clinton acceptable and voted for her. His base may be becoming more fanatical -- but smaller. I expect few people to go from thinking Donald Trump wonderful in 2016 to being disappointed in him. They knew what they were getting and are probably happy.

So let us try to do the math. 6% of the electorate voted for Hillary Clinton despite finding her unfavorable.  8.5% voted for Trump.  4.1% voted for someone not Clinton or Trump and were in this category. This includes people who thought Clinton not liberal enough to get her vote and people who thought Trump not right-wing enough to merit their vote.   

One can subdivide the vote:

Trump {45.93%} -- 37.47% found him favorable and voted for him
.................................8.46% voted for him despite finding him unfavorable

Clinton {48.02%}  -- 42.02% found her favorable and voted for her
.................................6.00% voted for her despite finding her unfavorable

Others, including such luminaries as "Bugs Bunny", "Santa Claus", and "none of the above" as well as Jill Stein and Evan McMullin  {6.05%}

4.13% voted for 'other' while finding neither Clinton nor Trump favorable, and 1.92% voted for 'other' while finding one or both favorable...

I am tempted to believe that voters for Gary Johnson and Evan McMullin knew what they were doing, and that voters for Jill Stein  had no idea that they were effectively voting for Trump. Note that I may be excessively precise with my calculations.

The 37.47% who found Trump favorable and voted for him is close to the number of people who say that they will vote for Trump and not for someone else in recent national polls that ask the question

"Do you intend to vote for Donald Trump in 2020 or do you intend to vote for someone else?". This is close to the natural floor for a failed incumbent President seeking re-election of about 40% (Hoover '32 and Carter '80).  He will get that with high certainty on my part. More?

To be sure, favorability is not approval. It is hope for the better. Trump has been a disappointment, as shown in disapproval numbers.

OK, so about 45% of Americans are conservative enough that they would never vote for any Democrat. That should be enough to allow President Trump to win re-election so long as the Democrat doesn't gain enough in three of Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin  while most of the increase in Democratic votes appears in states like California, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York. Right?

Wrong. The Democratic nominee is still going to get about 48% of the popular vote even if as inept a campaigner as Hillary Clinton. Donald Trump will find it hard to get 45% of the popular vote. Count on former President Obama being active in the 2020 campaign as he wasn't in 2016. Can one count on at least 46% of the electorate voting for conservative nominees for President in 2020? Sure. For Trump? NO!

Consider this appeal:

I am for free-market, small-government solutions to our problems. But Donald Trump may agree  with me on that, and I disagree on his sexist, racist language and his dalliance with Russia. We need to align ourselves with leaders who appreciate political freedom and human rights. Kasich/Huntsman 2020!

On the other side, the vote for Jill Stein was the difference between Trump and Clinton victories in Michigan, Pennsylvania,and Wisconsin.

   

[Badger]

When President Trump is even in Georgia in approval and disapproval  (no Democratic nominee has won the  state since 1992) and Texas (no Democratic nominee has won the state since 1976), he is in deep trouble. 

The key is Trump, like all politicians, but to a greater degree in his case, can convince a number of Voters who disapprove of him to still hold their nose and pull the lever for him in the voting booth. Republicans tend to be better at this than Democrats in demonizing their opponent. Hillary Clinton was a perfect example.

In short, while I think Trump is on borrowed time, don't underestimate the number of people who will still potentially choose him as the lesser of two evils.

In 2016, Trump did, at the end of the day, dominate among voters who disapproved of both candidates.

Per CNN's exit poll:

both unfavorable 18%


Clinton 30%   
Trump 47%   
Other 23%

(Nearly the entirety of Other came from the both unfavorable camp)

The question is how many of those "Disapprove of both, vote Trump" voters are because Trump was the change option in 2016: the GOP were out of the White House and he represented a shift. He's now an incumbent president.

Excellent analysis. I wondered the same thing, but didn't bother to extend my post. I do think that that is a difference, Mikado. For some of the reasons P Brower mentions about people willing to aim for a change. I think break towards Trump's favor the same way it did for years ago. Nevertheless, don't discount the ability for Republican party operatives and frightening media's spearheaded, but not exclusive to, Fox News to utterly demonize the Democratic presidential candidate. Likewise, don't underestimate the ability for conservatively glowing post swing voters to still accept Trump as somehow being the lesser of two evils.

[Person Man]

When President Trump is even in Georgia in approval and disapproval  (no Democratic nominee has won the  state since 1992) and Texas (no Democratic nominee has won the state since 1976), he is in deep trouble. 

The key is Trump, like all politicians, but to a greater degree in his case, can convince a number of Voters who disapprove of him to still hold their nose and pull the lever for him in the voting booth. Republicans tend to be better at this than Democrats in demonizing their opponent. Hillary Clinton was a perfect example.

In short, while I think Trump is on borrowed time, don't underestimate the number of people who will still potentially choose him as the lesser of two evils.

In 2016, Trump did, at the end of the day, dominate among voters who disapproved of both candidates.

Per CNN's exit poll:

both unfavorable 18%


Clinton 30%   
Trump 47%   
Other 23%

(Nearly the entirety of Other came from the both unfavorable camp)

The question is how many of those "Disapprove of both, vote Trump" voters are because Trump was the change option in 2016: the GOP were out of the White House and he represented a shift. He's now an incumbent president.

Excellent analysis. I wondered the same thing, but didn't bother to extend my post. I do think that that is a difference, Mikado. For some of the reasons P Brower mentions about people willing to aim for a change. I think break towards Trump's favor the same way it did for years ago. Nevertheless, don't discount the ability for Republican party operatives and frightening media's spearheaded, but not exclusive to, Fox News to utterly demonize the Democratic presidential candidate. Likewise, don't underestimate the ability for conservatively glowing post swing voters to still accept Trump as somehow being the lesser of two evils.

So 2020 could really simply be won by who actually controls the "Luegenpresse"?

[pbrower2a]

When President Trump is even in Georgia in approval and disapproval  (no Democratic nominee has won the  state since 1992) and Texas (no Democratic nominee has won the state since 1976), he is in deep trouble. 

The key is Trump, like all politicians, but to a greater degree in his case, can convince a number of Voters who disapprove of him to still hold their nose and pull the lever for him in the voting booth. Republicans tend to be better at this than Democrats in demonizing their opponent. Hillary Clinton was a perfect example.

In short, while I think Trump is on borrowed time, don't underestimate the number of people who will still potentially choose him as the lesser of two evils.

In 2016, Trump did, at the end of the day, dominate among voters who disapproved of both candidates.

Per CNN's exit poll:

both unfavorable 18%


Clinton 30%   
Trump 47%   
Other 23%

(Nearly the entirety of Other came from the both unfavorable camp)

The question is how many of those "Disapprove of both, vote Trump" voters are because Trump was the change option in 2016: the GOP were out of the White House and he represented a shift. He's now an incumbent president.

Excellent analysis. I wondered the same thing, but didn't bother to extend my post. I do think that that is a difference, Mikado. For some of the reasons P Brower mentions about people willing to aim for a change. I think break towards Trump's favor the same way it did for years ago. Nevertheless, don't discount the ability for Republican party operatives and frightening media's spearheaded, but not exclusive to, Fox News to utterly demonize the Democratic presidential candidate. Likewise, don't underestimate the ability for conservatively glowing post swing voters to still accept Trump as somehow being the lesser of two evils.

Donald Trump will not be 'change' in 2020. He will be the status quo, and whatever goes right and wrong will decide who becomes or remains President.

It is imaginable that the Democrats will nominate someone that the Trump campaign can successfully brand as a dangerous or capricious radical. But such requires a President already somewhat successful.  We still have 22 months to see the final result. In theory much can happen between now and November 2020.

It is also possible that Democrats will make fools of themselves, but I hardly expect that to happen.

But note well: a 50-50 split among voters voting for Trump and his Democratic opponent among people who look unfavorably upon both implies that the Democrats win. The 47-30 split reduced to a 50-50 split swings the election 1.53%, which will be at least enough to swing Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin alone -- easily -- if nothing else differs between 2016 and 2020. Those are the three most likely states to shift.

Again, I am looking at margins in a mathematical model.       

[pbrower2a]

A state in which Republicans should be doing very well: Kentucky.

Donald Trump

46% favorable
37% unfavorable
17% neutral   

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000167-be03-d2a9-a1ef-bf9fa42a0000

"Tepid" is the best word that I could use to describe that. He will almost certainly win Kentucky, as
(1) favorability and approval usually are close at this time
(2) 46% favorability puts one in range of winning with the average sort of re-election campaign
(3) if I treat "unfavorable" as evidence of disapproval, then Trump still has a ceiling of 63%
(4) almost all incumbents in statewide races approach their ceilings even in wave years that go against their Parties.

The incumbent Governor:


Mason®-Dixon
Kentucky Poll
–
December 2018

QUESTION:

Do you approve or disapprove of Matt Bevin’s job performance as governor?

APPROVE  38%
DISAPPROVE 53%
NOT SURE 9%

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000167-be03-d2a9-a1ef-bf9fa42a0000

That suggests that the incumbent Republican is going down in November 2019. He has not done what it takes to get re-elected.   Kentucky elects Governors in 4x-1 years, one year before the Presidential election (or the Olympiad, if you wish). Approval for a Governor is on statewide issues, and approval for the President or of US Senators (I have nothing on Mitch McConnell)  is on national issues.

The good news for President Trump is that he will probably win Kentucky in 2020 even if the Democrats elect a governor and oust the incumbent. The bad news for him is that Kentucky 'falls' around the 450th electoral vote for a Democratic nominee for President.

625 registered voters, by cell and landline phones.

It's favorability, so I can;t show it on the map. 
     

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Lol if you actually believe Trump is only +9 in KENTUCKKY.

Have you ever been to Kentucky?

[pbrower2a]

Lol if you actually believe Trump is only +9 in KENTUCKY. Add about 15-20 points to Bevin to adjust for that and that’s probably where the race ends up

Possible if Trump is about -6 nationwide, which I have seen consistently in the three states that Trump most barely won

Besides, what we have for Trump is 'favorability', which I do not confuse with approval. But there is an approval poll for the incumbent Republican Governor who has gone from the Tea Party smoothly to the Trump agenda, which hardly surprises me anymore.

Take a look at the approval numbers for Governor Bevin. If you are a conservative Republican, you might want to look at something else to get that image out of your mind. Something more beautiful -- like an automobile graveyard. 

[Skye]

Ummm, I dunno if this goes here, but I'll post it anyway. It's Morning Consult's Trump approval tracker by state, numbers from December:

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

Some interesting facts:

-Trump is only at +2 in Kansas. He's also at +3 in AK, MO, UT (fwiw), and MT. He's also at +4 in TX
-He's at -3 in OH, VA (!), NC, GA, and FL.
-He gets very bad numbers in the Great Lakes states.

[Gass3268]

Ummm, I dunno if this goes here, but I'll post it anyway. It's Morning Consult's Trump approval tracker by state, numbers from December:

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

Some interesting facts:

-Trump is only at +2 in Kansas. He's also at +3 in AK, MO, UT (fwiw), and MT. He's also at +4 in TX
-He's at -3 in OH, VA (!), NC, GA, and FL.
-He gets very bad numbers in the Great Lakes states.

Morning Consult has always produced the best numbers for Trump in Virginia. Almost all of the polling up to the 2018 elections had his approval in the high 30's/ low 40's.

[GeorgiaModerate]

GBA Strategies, Dec. 14-19, 1001 RV (1-month change)

Approve 38 (-4)
Disapprove 55 (nc)

Strongly approve 18 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-1)

Approval by party:

R: 81/15 (was 87/11), strongly 41/6 (was 45/5)
I: 19/54 (was 36/55), strongly 5/29 (was 12/34)
D: 9/91 (was 8/91), strongly 2/81 (was 2/78)

[Dr. Arch]

GBA Strategies, Dec. 14-19, 1001 RV (1-month change)

Approve 38 (-4)
Disapprove 55 (nc)

Strongly approve 18 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-1)

Approval by party:

R: 81/15 (was 87/11), strongly 41/6 (was 45/5)
I: 19/54 (was 36/55), strongly 5/29 (was 12/34)
D: 9/91 (was 8/91), strongly 2/81 (was 2/78)

And the tanking continues.

[pbrower2a]

GBA Strategies, Dec. 14-19, 1001 RV (1-month change)

Approve 38 (-4)
Disapprove 55 (nc)

Strongly approve 18 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-1)

Approval by party:

R: 81/15 (was 87/11), strongly 41/6 (was 45/5)
I: 19/54 (was 36/55), strongly 5/29 (was 12/34)
D: 9/91 (was 8/91), strongly 2/81 (was 2/78)

4% is roughly the margin of error. This is still from mid-December, so it is entirely from after the 2018 election and entirely before the Democratic majority being established in the House.

For obvious reasons I expect little polling from late December.

4% is also nearly one-tenth of the previous level of approval of the President, and that is a big chunk of potential support. Disapproval is not up, so apparently, some shaky approval has gone into the 'undecided' category.

This is also from the time of the peak of the stock market. Although valuations of common stock are not the essence of the economy, they are  powerful indicators of economic activity. Aside from the President's support  from people attuned to his primitive expressions of bigotry and anti-intellectualism, the President's strongest asset as a national leader has been that the economy has not yet gone into the tank. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

PPP, Jan. 3-4, 658 RV

Approve 43
Disapprove 52

I can't find a prior from PPP in the last few months.

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Jan. 3-4, 658 RV

Approve 43
Disapprove 52

I can't find a prior from PPP in the last few months.

It is heavily about healthcare.

PPP has not been doing many pro bono polls; it has to be paid now most of the time.  This one was about Obamacare.

How important was the issue of healthcare when deciding who to vote for in this last election in
2018    –

Was it the most important issue (25%)
... a very important issue (37%)
...  a somewhat important issue (24%)
...  not that important an issue (7%)
...  or not an important issue at all (5%)
... not sure (1%)

Note that any of these responses could include the extent to which it is important to abolish Obamacare if one wants it abolished.
.......................................................

More telling:
 
Q3
Which party do you trust more on the issue of health care?

...  Democrats (56%)
...  or Republicans (41%)
... not sure (4%)

Q4
Recently a federal judge in Texas sided with President Trump and Republicans to overturn the Affordable Care Act,  striking down the entire law.  If this decision is allowed to stand,  it
would mean the end of the Affordable Care Act,  with no replacement.   Do you support or
oppose this decision that strikes down the entire Affordable Care Act?

 35 % -- Support
........................................................
 55 % -- Oppose
........................................................
 10 % -- Not sure


(Comment: it is rarely acceptable for a federal judge to strike down a law except on issues of Constitutionality. Such would be acceptable for undoing a law which denies ethnic minorities the right to vote or prohibits political protests of government policies. It is not enough that the judge find the law odious.

All in all, Donald Trump stands for the worst method of medical funding of all -- blank-check pricing, with those unable to pay dying as soon as they run out of funds or that a pprivate, for-profit insurance company cuts off funds.

I might be dead were it not for Obamacare.

[Politician]

PPP, Jan. 3-4, 658 RV

Approve 43
Disapprove 52

I can't find a prior from PPP in the last few months.

But Atlas told me Trump has a 50-50 chance of re-election and 2020 will be a neutral year!

LOL

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Jan. 3-4, 658 RV

Approve 43
Disapprove 52

I can't find a prior from PPP in the last few months.

But Atlas told me Trump has a 50-50 chance of re-election and 2020 will be a neutral year!

LOL

By late 2020 someone will have an algorithm that tells us all why the electoral results of that year were inevitable as shown in realities going back as early as November 2018 for the Senate and 2017 for the Presidency

It will be possible to establish some baseline for a neutral election based on 2020 numbers. I have been making guesses of the 2020 Presidential election based upon the  solidity of high disapproval numbers which establish a low ceiling for President Trump in a binary election. 100-DIS is my ceiling for President Trump, which suggests to me that if the President has 52% disapproval in a state, that he can get at most 48% of the vote. I assume of course that  little happens between now and November 2020 that changes anything except the expiration of time.