Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, August 2-6.  1994 registered voters.

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (nc)

Strongly approve 22 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 39 (nc)

GCB: D 42 (-2), R 36 (-1)

[pbrower2a]

The polls should be coming in very steadily as primary elections conclude.

[pbrower2a]

Maine: Suffolk University

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The incumbent Governor, a Republican, is down 37-52 in favorability...  which suggests that Maine voters are tiring of abrasive right-wing pols. There is no split between districts on the views of the President. It is still conceivable that Donald Trump could hold onto the single electoral vote of ME-02, but the state that barely went against him in 2916 looks as if it has drifted out of contention.

https://www.suffolk.edu/news/77646.php

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 39
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected, or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. Polls from Alabama and New Jersey are exit polls from 2017 elections.  

[GeorgiaModerate]

Zogby, August 6-8, 1016 likely voters (change from June).  No information provided on their likely voter screen.

Approve 46 (+2)
Disapprove 51 (-1)

Strongly approve 25 (+4)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, August 2-8, 17738 adults including 15740 registered voters.  (This continues to be very stable.)

Among all adults:

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Strongly approve 27 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (nc)

Among RV:

Approve 45 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Strongly approve 29 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, August 5-9, 1658 adults

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup weekly

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

This is the first approval below 40 in this poll since April 22 (38/57).

[pbrower2a]

Gallup weekly

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

This is the first approval below 40 in this poll since April 22 (38/57).

Trump is about 6% behind Obama eight years ago. Obama was a good enough politician that even with a constant barrage of cat-calls by the Tea Party critics he was able to transform a 45% approval rating into a 51% share of the binary vote nationwide in 2012. That was enough to win 332 electoral votes, although 29 of those (Florida) were shaky in the last week.

Should Trump do as well in parlaying his approval rating into electoral support (by adding 6% to his approval rating), he ends up with 45% of the popular vote.  That will not be enough unless the Democrats rift -- a possibility, but one less likely than the 'conservative' vote rifting. 45% of the vote share is about what Dukakis got in 1988, and decidedly less than Kerry got in 2004, McCain in 2008, and Romney in 2012.

The cat-calls against Donald Trump may be more civilized, but I see them no less effective.

I can't really show you what a 55-45 split of the popular vote looks like for a Republican. I can show it for Dukakis:



428-111 for the elder Bush.

OK, Trump will win West Virginia, which is about as R now as it was D in 1988. America has been so polarized  regionally that Obama would have gotten at most 379 electoral votes had he gotten 55% of the popular vote in 2008.  Strange things start to happen as one gets away from a near 50-50 split of the popular vote -- mostly that unlikely states swing wildly in one direction. 

The 56% disapproval rating suggests a ceiling of 44% (100-DIS)  of the popular vote for President Trump. This is consistent with my polling map.

President Trump is not as astute a campaigner as Obama.

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNN/SSRS, August 9-12, 1002 adults (change from June)

Approve 42 (+3)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

[BudgieForce]

CNN/SSRS, August 9-12, 1002 adults (change from June)

Approve 42 (+3)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Reaffirms that Trump has seen almost no movement since March. Pretty boring actually.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac, Aug. 9-13, 1175 registered voters

Approve 41 (+3)
Disapprove 54 (-4)

(Note: the previous 38/58 poll was considered a likely outlier at the time.  The two before that were 40/55 and 43/52.)

[President Johnson]

CNN/SSRS, August 9-12, 1002 adults (change from June)

Approve 42 (+3)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Reaffirms that Trump has seen almost no movement since March. Pretty boring actually.

Maybe this is just the new normal in a very polarized political climate? I could see a Democratic president (no recession) being between 45% and 51% for most of time in the 2021-2025 term after a very brief honeymoon with approvals in the low 60s.

[pbrower2a]

CNN/SSRS, August 9-12, 1002 adults (change from June)

Approve 42 (+3)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Reaffirms that Trump has seen almost no movement since March. Pretty boring actually.

Maybe this is just the new normal in a very polarized political climate? I could see a Democratic president (no recession) being between 45% and 51% for most of time in the 2021-2025 term after a very brief honeymoon with approvals in the low 60s.

That's what it was with Obama. That President will solve some problems early by undoing Trump damage, but after that swing voters will go back to their old habits.

[pbrower2a]

Minnesota: Emerson University:

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https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-mn-8.11-pr.pdf

Not changing the map for this one poll, as it changes little. I anticipate other polls, though, this week.


Tennessee -- Gravis

Trump approval 54- 41

Do you remember when Tennessee was the most progressive state in the South? That's over even if you no longer consider Virginia 'Southern'.

http://orlando-politics.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Tennessee-August-12-2018-v2.pdf

[CookieDamage]

Minnesota: Emerson University:

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https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-mn-8.11-pr.pdf

Not changing the map for this one poll, as it changes little. I anticipate other polls, though, this week.


Tennessee -- Gravis

Trump approval 54- 41

Do you remember when Tennessee was the most progressive state in the South? That's over even if you no longer consider Virginia 'Southern'.

http://orlando-politics.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Tennessee-August-12-2018-v2.pdf

When??

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Minnesota: Emerson University:

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https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-mn-8.11-pr.pdf

Not changing the map for this one poll, as it changes little. I anticipate other polls, though, this week.


Tennessee -- Gravis

Trump approval 54- 41

Do you remember when Tennessee was the most progressive state in the South? That's over even if you no longer consider Virginia 'Southern'.

http://orlando-politics.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Tennessee-August-12-2018-v2.pdf

When??

Virginia actually used to be a lot worse.

[The Mikado]

Minnesota: Emerson University:

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https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-mn-8.11-pr.pdf

Not changing the map for this one poll, as it changes little. I anticipate other polls, though, this week.


Tennessee -- Gravis

Trump approval 54- 41

Do you remember when Tennessee was the most progressive state in the South? That's over even if you no longer consider Virginia 'Southern'.

http://orlando-politics.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Tennessee-August-12-2018-v2.pdf

When??

The 1950s and 1960s. It's completely accurate to describe TN from that period that way.

[CookieDamage]

Minnesota: Emerson University:

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https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-mn-8.11-pr.pdf

Not changing the map for this one poll, as it changes little. I anticipate other polls, though, this week.


Tennessee -- Gravis

Trump approval 54- 41

Do you remember when Tennessee was the most progressive state in the South? That's over even if you no longer consider Virginia 'Southern'.

http://orlando-politics.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Tennessee-August-12-2018-v2.pdf

When??

The 1950s and 1960s. It's completely accurate to describe TN from that period that way.

Interesting. I'd love to learn more. Is it because of the New Deal and its affects on TN politics?

[pbrower2a]

Minnesota: Emerson University:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-mn-8.11-pr.pdf

Not changing the map for this one poll, as it changes little. I anticipate other polls, though, this week.


Tennessee -- Gravis

Trump approval 54- 41

Do you remember when Tennessee was the most progressive state in the South? That's over even if you no longer consider Virginia 'Southern'.

http://orlando-politics.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Tennessee-August-12-2018-v2.pdf

When??

The 1950s and 1960s. It's completely accurate to describe TN from that period that way.

Interesting. I'd love to learn more. Is it because of the New Deal and its affects on TN politics?

Yes. Without the New Deal and the Tennessee Valley Administration, Tennessee might be as poor as Mississippi. It is worth remembering that the state is home to Al Gore.

[Doimper]

Minnesota: Emerson University:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-mn-8.11-pr.pdf

Not changing the map for this one poll, as it changes little. I anticipate other polls, though, this week.


Tennessee -- Gravis

Trump approval 54- 41

Do you remember when Tennessee was the most progressive state in the South? That's over even if you no longer consider Virginia 'Southern'.

http://orlando-politics.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Tennessee-August-12-2018-v2.pdf

When??

The 1950s and 1960s. It's completely accurate to describe TN from that period that way.

Interesting. I'd love to learn more. Is it because of the New Deal and its affects on TN politics?

Yeah. Estes Kefauver and Al Gore Sr were the most liberal Southern Senators of their time (with the possible exception of Ralph Yarborough).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, August 10-12.  1992 registered voters.

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (nc)

Strongly approve 24 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 39 (nc)

GCB: D 42 (nc), R 38 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trafalgar Group
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1odR1vw2PmB2oArwqKL0dl1cJrEGB0tiE/view
Conducted 7/31-8/7/18
1,420 Respondents
Likely 2018 General Election Voters
Margin of Error: +/- 2.6

Approve: 47
Disapprove: 50

Note that this is Indiana only (not national approval).

[pbrower2a]

Trafalgar Group
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1odR1vw2PmB2oArwqKL0dl1cJrEGB0tiE/view
Conducted 7/31-8/7/18
1,420 Respondents
Likely 2018 General Election Voters
Margin of Error: +/- 2.6

Approve: 47
Disapprove: 50

Note that this is Indiana only (not national approval).

I predicted that as the primaries were completed, there would be more approval polls. Indiana gives a result so stunning that it demands inclusion.

If his disapproval is at 50% in Indiana, then he could lose Indiana. This suggests a landslide win for a Democratic nominee in 2020.

The Senate election has Donnelly, the incumbent Democrat, at 50%. President Trump could be hurting Republicans even in Indiana.

Indiana never decides a Presidential election by itself. Know well, though: a Republican has not win the Presidential election when winning Indiana by less than 10%. Indiana is more rural than other states in the Great Lakes region, but President Trump's tariffs can't be helping.

Now I can add the approval polls for Minnesota and Tennessee without doing so for only one state.     

Minnesota: Emerson University:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-mn-8.11-pr.pdf

Not changing the map for this one poll, as it changes little. I anticipate other polls, though, this week.


Tennessee -- Gravis

Trump approval 54- 41

Do you remember when Tennessee was the most progressive state in the South? That's over even if you no longer consider Virginia 'Southern'.

http://orlando-politics.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Tennessee-August-12-2018-v2.pdf

[pbrower2a]

Trafalgar Group
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1odR1vw2PmB2oArwqKL0dl1cJrEGB0tiE/view
Conducted 7/31-8/7/18
1,420 Respondents
Likely 2018 General Election Voters
Margin of Error: +/- 2.6

Approve: 47
Disapprove: 50

Note that this is Indiana only (not national approval).

I predicted that as the primaries were completed, there would be more approval polls. Indiana gives a result so stunning that it demands inclusion.

If his disapproval is at 50% in Indiana, then he could lose Indiana. This suggests a landslide win for a Democratic nominee in 2020.

The Senate election has Donnelly, the incumbent Democrat, at 50%. President Trump could be hurting Republicans even in Indiana.

Indiana never decides a Presidential election by itself. Know well, though: a Republican has not win the Presidential election when winning Indiana by less than 10%. Indiana is more rural than other states in the Great Lakes region, but President Trump's tariffs can't be helping.

Now I can add the approval polls for Minnesota and Tennessee without doing so for only one state.    

Minnesota: Emerson University:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-mn-8.11-pr.pdf

Not changing the map for this one poll, as it changes little. I anticipate other polls, though, this week.


Tennessee -- Gravis

Trump approval 54- 41

Do you remember when Tennessee was the most progressive state in the South? That's over even if you no longer consider Virginia 'Southern'.

http://orlando-politics.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Tennessee-August-12-2018-v2.pdf

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 39
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected, or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. Polls from Alabama and New Jersey are exit polls from 2017 elections.  

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, Aug. 12-14, 1500 adults including 1250 registered voters

Among all adults:

Approve 42 (+2)
Disapprove 49 (nc)

Strongly approve 24 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-1)

Among RV:

Approve 46 (+2)
Disapprove 50 (-1)

Strongly approve 29 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-2)

GCB (RV only): D 44 (nc), R 40 (-1)