Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[Arnaud]

What i'm always looking in the polls is his standing with independents. i don't care about the topline because sometimes it's just up and down with republicans and we know than in the end almost all of them will vote for him anyway .

My advice is only look at independents and compare with 2016 and 2018 numbers.

Thats really only what matters for 2020.

[Dr. Arch]

What i'm always looking in the polls is his standing with independents. i don't care about the topline because sometimes it's just up and down with republicans and we know than in the end almost all of them will vote for him anyway .

My advice is only look at independents and compare with 2016 and 2018 numbers.

Thats really only what matters for 2020.

From this angle, Trump is already toast. His standing with independents has gone from bad to horrible to abysmal with every passing year of his administration, and we have already seen that there is little he would be willing to do to change that.

[pbrower2a]

What i'm always looking in the polls is his standing with independents. i don't care about the topline because sometimes it's just up and down with republicans and we know than in the end almost all of them will vote for him anyway .

My advice is only look at independents and compare with 2016 and 2018 numbers.

Thats really only what matters for 2020.

Independent voters who are mote likely to swing based upon a fad or a whim, are the decisive voters. They are most likely to get disillusioned with the two main choices because neither usually fits their quirky sensibilities. We typically have about a 45-10-45 split in partisan politics, which explains why we have not had anyone getting 55% of the  popular vote since Reagan in 1984. A Democrat is  not going to grab much of a conservative vote and a Republican  is not going to pick up much of the liberal vote unless the Other Side really messes up.

Voting for Donald Trump is like voting for a real-life J R Ewing -- believing that the Rogue can accomplish what morally-normal people cannot do.  The Rogue breaks the rules and does the unthinkable -- but after doing such he reminds us of why conventions and formalities exist. 

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/fl-ne-florida-voters-donald-trump-approval-morning-consult-20190107-story.html

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina, PPP. First approval poll of any swing state since the 2018 other than those polls of Morning Consult (a 50-state poll that I prefer to keep separate)

The best-known potential Democratic nominees beat Trump; those not so well known roughly tie him. Trump does not go beyond 46% against anyone, which is bad for an incumbent in the news all the time, and especially for someone who absolutely, positively, must win North  Carolina to have a meaningful chance of winning re-election. 46% of the state's popular vote will not be good enough for a Trump win in 2020 unless a left-wing independent or Third Party nominee takes away some of the liberal-leaning vote of the Democratic nominee. Hillary Clinton got 46.17% of the popular vote in North Carolina in 2016; Obama got 48.35% of the popular vote in 2012.

The other poll was of Massachusetts about a month ago, and as I recall Trump disapproval was in the  60s.

Biden 49
Trump 44

Sanders 48
Trump 45

Warren 46
Trump 46

Harris 45
Trump 45

O'Rourke 45
Trump 46

Booker 45
Trump 46

Trump approval at 46/50.

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/PPP_Release_NC_10919.pdf

......................

PPP actually leans a bit R in its polling results. I have typically used 100-DIS as the ceiling for an incumbent President, but in this case his performance in putative match-ups suggests a ceiling of 46%.

Trump approval:

With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.

55% and higher
50-54%
49% or less and positive
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 15
40-43%
under 40%  11

An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.

Not showing districts of Maine and Nebraska? Those two states rarely get polled except by Morning Consult, and even more rarely do I see polling numbers segregated by district. I can change the map to adjust.

48 more states, and 511 electoral votes to go!

[Crumpets]

What i'm always looking in the polls is his standing with independents. i don't care about the topline because sometimes it's just up and down with republicans and we know than in the end almost all of them will vote for him anyway .

My advice is only look at independents and compare with 2016 and 2018 numbers.

Thats really only what matters for 2020.

Personally, I think the most useful number is his disapproval. Anything above 54.1 and there are 2016 Trump voters in there. Anything below that, and we're really just talking about third partiers going back and forth on their opinion of Trump without much of an actual translation to major party vote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, Jan 6-8, 1500 adults including 1299 RV (2-week change)

Adults:

Approve 40 (-3)
Disapprove 51 (+1)

Strongly approve 21 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 41 (nc)

Shutdown blame (a lot / a little / not at all):

Democrats in Congress: 40 / 21 / 25
Republicans in Congress: 40 / 35 / 11
President Trump: 56 / 16 / 19


RV:

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (+1)

Strongly approve 26 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+1)

Shutdown blame (a lot / a little / not at all):

Democrats in Congress: 46 / 18 / 31
Republicans in Congress: 46 / 37 / 12
President Trump: 59 / 15 / 23

[GeorgiaModerate]

Colorado: DFM research, Jan. 2-5 550 adults

Although it is a while away, suppose the election was today for President of the United
States. Would you vote for Donald Trump the Republican or would you vote for the
Democratic Party candidate?

Trump 36
D candidate 50

[Dr. Arch]

Colorado: DFM research, Jan. 2-5 550 adults

Although it is a while away, suppose the election was today for President of the United
States. Would you vote for Donald Trump the Republican or would you vote for the
Democratic Party candidate?

Trump 36
D candidate 50

Holy crap!

[Crumpets]

Colorado: DFM research, Jan. 2-5 550 adults

Although it is a while away, suppose the election was today for President of the United
States. Would you vote for Donald Trump the Republican or would you vote for the
Democratic Party candidate?

Trump 36
D candidate 50

Holy crap!

Generic candidates always do well, but Trump at 36 in a state until recently considered a "swing" state is not good, especially for Cory Gardner.

[pbrower2a]

Colorado: DFM research, Jan. 2-5 550 adults

Although it is a while away, suppose the election was today for President of the United
States. Would you vote for Donald Trump the Republican or would you vote for the
Democratic Party candidate?

Trump 36
D candidate 50

Favorability of the President 41-55, which suggests that approval of the President is in the low 40s.

The 36-50 split in Colorado is similar to what I saw in some Marist polls in the summer of 2018 in which the President was projected to fall to a generic Democrat in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin by similar levels, and is about 10% more hostile to Trump than the very recent PPP poll  in North Carolina. Colorado was about D+7 and North Carolina was about R+3 in the 2016 Presidential election, so that makes sense.

This Colorado poll is by a special interest (railroad employees, specifically train operators on freight trains), so it might be suspect.  Still, the questions about political leaders and whether America and Colorado are generally on the "right track" (which becomes an unintentional pun as one reads the polling results).

[Inmate Trump]

Colorado, like Virginia, isn't quite a swing state anymore.

[Brittain33]

This poll weighted to match the real age distribution in Colorado, which only works if 18-34 year olds turn out in proportion to their population, which they don’t.

Colorado: DFM research, Jan. 2-5 550 adults

Although it is a while away, suppose the election was today for President of the United
States. Would you vote for Donald Trump the Republican or would you vote for the
Democratic Party candidate?

Trump 36
D candidate 50

Holy crap!

Generic candidates always do well, but Trump at 36 in a state until recently considered a "swing" state is not good, especially for Cory Gardner.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Like most other polls, Rasmussen's daily tracker has seen Trump's approval sliding recently.  Today he's at 45/53, his worst in this poll since July (equaled on one day in September).  In addition, their "approval index" (strong approval minus strong disapproval) is now at -14, which is also the lowest since July.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A bunch of PPP state polls from Jan. 7-8:

Alaska (N=898): 47/50

Arizona (N=741): 46/51

Colorado (N=706): 40/56

Georgia (N=943): 46/51

Iowa (N=1031): 45/52

Maine (N=1082): 40/56

North Carolina (N=949): 46/50

[pbrower2a]

A bunch of PPP state polls from Jan. 7-8:

Alaska (N=898): 47/50

Bad news for Senator Sullivan, up for re-election in 2020. It's even, but it is near 41%. He has yet to make an impression after four years.

Arizona (N=741): 46/51

The proposed border wall is unpopular in  Arizona.

Colorado (N=706): 40/56

The border wall is political suicide for Cory Gardner.

Georgia (N=943): 46/51

R Senators are unimpressive.

Iowa (N=1031): 45/52

Ernst is doing better than I expected. Border wall and the  shutdown can hurt her. This state is not careening to the Right. 

Maine (N=1082): 40/56

Collins just above water, but the border wall and the shutdown won't help. Most charitable treatment for Trump is to teat ME-01 as a strong anti-Trump district and ME-02 as effectively a tie.

North Carolina (N=949): 46/50

Already discussed.

Trump approval:

With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.

55% and higher
50-54%
49% or less and positive
tie (white) 1
44-49% and negative 20
40-43% 11
under 40%  38

An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.


Not showing districts of Maine and Nebraska? Those two states rarely get polled except by Morning Consult, and even more rarely do I see polling numbers segregated by district. I can change the map to adjust.

42 more states, and 468 electoral votes to go!

[ProudModerate2]

Trump approval:

Oh. I like the colors so far.

[pbrower2a]

Trump approval:

Oh. I like the colors so far.

Of the states shown, the only three that the Democratic nominee must win are Colorado (which is beginning to look like California bout ten years ago in its politics), Maine, and Massachusetts.  The others are in pink shades, and President Trump will need to win every one of them except perhaps Iowa. Every one of the states in pink has an asterisk signify8ing that Trump disapproval is 50% or higher.

Iowa usually goes in tandem with Wisconsin; it is about time for a Marquette University poll of Wisconsin.

PPP did a favorability poll of Ohio, and it looked awful for the President.

At this stage the President should not have disapproval ratings of 50% or higher in any state that he absolutely must win. Obama did have a disapproval rating of 51% in Ohio -- once -- and still won the state in 2012. Obama could still win without Ohio, and won it. But I do not mix approval and favorability polls here.

The North Carolina poll had possible match-ups between Trump and various potential Democratic challengers. Although Trump tied or edged all but Biden and Sanders (I like both, but either will need to invest political capital of the Democratic Party in a Vice-President who will be fit to do the job, in view of concerns that I best describe with the word 'actuarial'), he never broke 46% against any of the others. To this I say that it will take a spirited and competent campaign to win North Carolina from Trump. If he can't crack 46% in North Carolina, then he will lose the state.

Donald Trump can lose every state that he won by 10% or more except perhaps Ohio (inadequate current evidence) and Texas (conflicting evidence) -- and will unless he can turn his Presidency around.

Maybe the low approval numbers relate to the border wall and the Congressional shutdown and improve as some compromise is achieved and people start forgetting. But Trump approvals were awful before he tried to use the government shutdown to get the border wall. The real surprise is Alaska, which has never voted for a Democratic nominee for President since 1964. 

I'd love to post a map that discusses whether

(1) Trump loses to practically any Democrat
(2) whether people think Trump should be re-elected
(3) Trump versus "Generic Democrat"

These criteria are similar, and distinct from approval numbers. I had the third of these questions answered in a poll of favorability of Donald Trump (Colorado -- and it was hideous for Trump), six from last summer (Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin -- and they were hideous for Trump) about the second question, and Trump not cracking 46% against any Democrat in North Carolina -- the first question.

The incumbent politician can usually take advantage of publicity... but so far the publicity has been unflattering. 

 

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It seems silly to have Trump at a tie in ME-2 as that would require ME-1 to be as anti-Trump as California or Illinois.  There's a disparity between the two, but not so great as to have ME-2 as a tie and ME-1 at a net -32.

[pbrower2a]

It seems silly to have Trump at a tie in ME-2 as that would require ME-1 to be as anti-Trump as California or Illinois.  There's a disparity between the two, but not so great as to have ME-2 as a tie and ME-1 at a net -32.

ME-02 went for Trump by just over 10%. Having it as a tie until I see otherwise is simply cautious. ME-01 was extremely anti-Trump in 2016.

I cannot yet assign ME-02 as a likely loss for Trump. Just because I want to is no reason fo0r me to do so.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It seems silly to have Trump at a tie in ME-2 as that would require ME-1 to be as anti-Trump as California or Illinois.  There's a disparity between the two, but not so great as to have ME-2 as a tie and ME-1 at a net -32.

ME-02 went for Trump by just over 10%. Having it as a tie until I see otherwise is simply cautious. ME-01 was extremely anti-Trump in 2016.

I cannot yet assign ME-02 as a likely loss for Trump. Just because I want to is no reason fo0r me to do so.

There was a net 25 point difference in the margin in 2016 between the two.  Applying the same differences from the Statewide Maine results yields:
ME-1: 35/62
ME-2: 47/51

However,, given the lack of CD-specific info, it probably would be best for the map to simply be:

[pbrower2a]

It seems silly to have Trump at a tie in ME-2 as that would require ME-1 to be as anti-Trump as California or Illinois.  There's a disparity between the two, but not so great as to have ME-2 as a tie and ME-1 at a net -32.

ME-02 went for Trump by just over 10%. Having it as a tie until I see otherwise is simply cautious. ME-01 was extremely anti-Trump in 2016.

I cannot yet assign ME-02 as a likely loss for Trump. Just because I want to is no reason fo0r me to do so.

There was a net 25 point difference in the margin in 2016 between the two.  Applying the same differences from the Statewide Maine results yields:
ME-1: 35/62
ME-2: 47/51

However,, given the lack of CD-specific info, it probably would be best for the map to simply be:

OK for now. Trump is unlikely to win ME-02 with a disapproval number of 51% at this point. Obama did so with one 51% disapproval in Ohio soon after the 2010 election, but anyone who thinks Obama in 2011 a good analogue for Trump in 2019 fails to understand how different the two are. As the late Eric Hoffer put it,

"The opposite of a raging fascist is not a raging Communist. The opposite of a raging fascist is a sober liberal".

Obama is a sober liberal.  He knew enough to not push forward on a losing agenda that would have shown how out of touch he was with reality. For Trump, reality is solipsism. He rages, and he tries to downplay the significance of his electoral defeat.

 So far as I can see it is the states that are in the middle of the range from bare losses for the President to bare wins (ME, NV, NH, MI, PA, WI, FL, AZ, NC, and GA) and those that did anomalously well  for him (IA and OH) that seem to have swung most against him this time.

[pbrower2a]

ME-02 is probably going against Trump. Back to this pattern of not showing Maine and Nebraska by electoral votes:

Trump approval:

With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.

55% and higher
50-54%
49% or less and positive
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 20
40-43% 13
under 40%  37

An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.


Not showing districts of Maine and Nebraska? Those two states rarely get polled except by Morning Consult, and even more rarely do I see polling numbers segregated by district. I can change the map to adjust.

42 more states, and 468 electoral votes to go!

[pbrower2a]

Colorado: DFM research, Jan. 2-5 550 adults

Although it is a while away, suppose the election was today for President of the United
States. Would you vote for Donald Trump the Republican or would you vote for the
Democratic Party candidate?

Trump 36
D candidate 50

This is basically a poll of Trump against a generic Democrat.  For my purpo0ses I am using "36" as a measure of how Trump will  do in Colorado. This is close to what I would expect with Trump losing with about 43% of the popular vote nationwide.

PPP match-ups, North Carolina.

Biden 49
Trump 44

Sanders 48
Trump 45

Warren 46
Trump 46

Harris 45
Trump 45

O'Rourke 45
Trump 46

Booker 45
Trump 46

Trump approval at 46/50.

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/PPP_Release_NC_10919.pdf

As you can see, Trump does not crack 46% against any of the Democrats against which he is pitted. For this. "46" is about what he would do against a Democrat at his best -- and he would lose. The Democratic nominee will be far better known in November 2020 than politicians that  people don't know now if that pol is not so well  known now. The politically-alert know about most potential candidates as people with other focuses aren't aware of.




It's old, and it is not exactly the same question -- but it is similar and relevant. Trump approval and disapproval have been remarkably stable. The only really-surprising recent poll is from  Alaska, and it shows Trump underwater in polling there. Does Trump deserve re-election? That should be close to how he does against as Democrat in the next relevant election.

Three other states:



I doubt that I need to make a  map out of this. Trump is a disaster, at least as polling shows,

[forgotten manatee]

A bunch of PPP state polls from Jan. 7-8:

Alaska (N=898): 47/50

Arizona (N=741): 46/51

Colorado (N=706): 40/56

Georgia (N=943): 46/51

Iowa (N=1031): 45/52

Maine (N=1082): 40/56

North Carolina (N=949): 46/50

These don't seem great, but aren't particularly awful numbers either, except maybe for Maine. How was Obama doing in January 2011 in these states?