Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1086053873700225024

[ProudModerate2]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1086053873700225024

I like the trend.
But not at the expense of the federal workers and this unnecessary Trump-Shutdown.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1086053873700225024

I like the trend.
But not at the expense of the federal workers and this unnecessary Trump-Shutdown.

Hopefully he'll cave soon, or his staffers will force him to, for the sake of every hardworking American.

[BlueSwan]

Fivethirtyeight now have Trumps approval below 40 for the first time since september. Perhaps more importantly, his disapproval is over 55 for the first time since last february. We are approaching his terrible 2017 numbers despite the booming economy.

[pbrower2a]

Fivethirtyeight now have Trumps approval below 40 for the first time since september. Perhaps more importantly, his disapproval is over 55 for the first time since last february. We are approaching his terrible 2017 numbers despite the booming economy.

I have suggested 100-DISapproval as a ceiling for the vote for the President. The problems with such a model are

(1) which disapproval number is most valid, and
(2) any statistical measure of approval or disapproval is fluid

"Will not vote for" is even more telling.

The numbers for the President have been awful through 2018, and it could be that the scuffle about the Border Wall might be temporary. Americans other than liberals are beginning to see the President as a would-be dictator attempting to consolidate power, and one way to consolidate power is to force raw deals in the political process -- raw deals that break the still-democratic opposition.

Eight years ago after the Tea Party election, about 40% of American voters said that they would not vote for Obama in 2012. Add about 9% to that, and you will notice that that is about the share of the electorate that voted for someone else -- mostly, Mitt Romney. Obama still got the majority of the popular vote and won the Electoral College decisively. 

Now it is 57% who say that they will not vote for Trump. I doubt that one can quite add 9%  to that. The two biggest electoral losers as incumbent Presidents were Hoover in 1932 and Carter in 1980, and both got about 40% of the popular vote.

I cannot come up with a map that shows what the political map looks like on Election Day if Trump ends up with 43% of the vote.  Can anyone?

[I Can Now Die Happy]

It is possible that Trump will be at 50% Approval on November 3, 2020. Hell....maybe even bigger!

[GeorgiaModerate]

I cannot come up with a map that shows what the political map looks like on Election Day if Trump ends up with 43% of the vote.  Can anyone?

Something like this?

[Badger]

I cannot come up with a map that shows what the political map looks like on Election Day if Trump ends up with 43% of the vote.  Can anyone?

Something like this?

If Trump gets 43% of the vote Nationwide, flip Texas as well. Yes, Texas.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I cannot come up with a map that shows what the political map looks like on Election Day if Trump ends up with 43% of the vote.  Can anyone?

Something like this?

If Bush gets 43% of the vote Nationwide, flip Texas as well. Yes, Texas.

Bush?

Very possible that Texas would also flip, and Missouri as well. 

[Badger]

I cannot come up with a map that shows what the political map looks like on Election Day if Trump ends up with 43% of the vote.  Can anyone?

Something like this?

If Bush gets 43% of the vote Nationwide, flip Texas as well. Yes, Texas.

Bush?

Very possible that Texas would also flip, and Missouri as well. 

Woops! I of course meant Trump.

Actually, I would put Montana flipping before Missouri at 43%, they both are possibilities at that rate.

[pbrower2a]

Heck, Indiana flips before Missouri.

[The Mikado]

There's a big difference between the election being Dem 46, Trump 43, Other 11, and the election being, like, Dem 55, Trump 43, Other 2. Not sure which of the two you're describing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

There's a big difference between the election being Dem 46, Trump 43, Other 11, and the election being, like, Dem 55, Trump 43, Other 2. Not sure which of the two you're describing.

I was thinking somewhere in the middle of that, say Dem 50, Trump 43.

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1086328457049473024

This is new, right?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

How is so Perdue so popular? He openly hates the United States of America, so how is this possible?

[Storr]

How is so Perdue so popular? He openly hates the United States of America, so how is this possible?

I mean he's less popular than Abhrams. If that poll is accurate she should definitely run for Senate in 2020.

[JG]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1086328457049473024

This is new, right?

I have a hard time believing Trump would be so unpopular in an inelastic state like Georgia.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1086328457049473024

This is new, right?

I have a hard time believing Trump would be so unpopular in an inelastic state like Georgia.

We've been discussing this poll in the Georgia thread on the gubernatorial/statewide board.  It's been suggested that Democrats are overweighted.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1086328457049473024

This is new, right?

I have a hard time believing Trump would be so unpopular in an inelastic state like Georgia.

We've been discussing this poll in the Georgia thread on the gubernatorial/statewide board.  It's been suggested that Democrats are overweighted.

With those favorability numbers on Abrams and Kemp, I'd have to think so. Election Shenanigans by Kemp alone does not explain the discrepancy between those poll numbers and the election results two months ago.

[Sorenroy]

There's a big difference between the election being Dem 46, Trump 43, Other 11, and the election being, like, Dem 55, Trump 43, Other 2. Not sure which of the two you're describing.

I was thinking somewhere in the middle of that, say Dem 50, Trump 43.

Based on 2012 and 2016 PVI, what a two way race might look like:

Dem. Challenger — 347 EV (53.76%)
Donald Trump — 191 EV (46.24%)

Margin: ≤5% shown as 30%, ≤10% shown as 40%, >10% shown as 60%.


Five closest districts:

NE-02: 50.15% R - 49.85% D
North Carolina: 50.75% D - 49.25% R
Ohio: 50.84% D - 49.16% R
Arizona: 51.03% R - 48.97% D
Georgia: 51.09% R - 48.91% D

[Horus]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1086328457049473024

This is new, right?

I have a hard time believing Trump would be so unpopular in an inelastic state like Georgia.

We've been discussing this poll in the Georgia thread on the gubernatorial/statewide board.  It's been suggested that Democrats are overweighted.

With those favorability numbers on Abrams and Kemp, I'd have to think so. Election Shenanigans by Kemp alone does not explain the discrepancy between those poll numbers and the election results two months ago.

Abrams could very well have better numbers than Trump and Kemp, but there's no way those are correct. It's possible all three are in the negatives, as there are some moderate business type gopers and indys in places like Buckhead, Roswell and Dunwoody who voted for Abrams but were annoyed by her post election actions.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1086328457049473024

This is new, right?

According to the poll, Nancy Pelosi is more popular than Trump in the state with 39% saying they have a favorable rating of her.

[American2020]

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https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/19/politics/poll-of-the-week-trump-unsuccessful-president-record/index.html

[HagridOfTheDeep]

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https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/19/politics/poll-of-the-week-trump-unsuccessful-president-record/index.html

He doesn't have to bring his up. He just has to bring theirs down.

[Progressive Pessimist]

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https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/19/politics/poll-of-the-week-trump-unsuccessful-president-record/index.html

He doesn't have to bring his up. He just has to bring theirs down.

Exactly. That's why it's foolish to ever count him out. I won't feel confident about him losing until election day 2020 if the Democrat attains 270 electoral votes.